Tag Archives: Matt

80% Strike Rate So Far This Year

Last week I read an article on Geegeez website that blew my socks off.

So today I want to encourage you to read it.

The article is Matt Bisogno’s review of the London Racing Club get together, which might sound like a dull report on some trainer or other being interviewed.

But it also includes some excellent insights that were shared by this months interviewees, who were the Hill family (Lawney et al…).

It includes the bones of a system that has seen 4 winners from 5 so far this year.

I know it’s only January  26th, but even so there is some potential for a decent system based on Paul Nichols horses that wear headgear for the first time.

I’ve added this to my notebook for future research.

There’s also a discussion about the use of tongue ties which could also lead to a profitable system with some further research.

Go and have a read and later in the week we’ll see if we can boil this idea down into a system that we can use for the rest of the season.

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/

By the way if you are fed up with the Racing Post racecards and you want something faster and easier to digest try the Geegeez Gold racecards – Click Here

Today’s selection comes from the Geegeez Shortlist report which is normally available to Gold members only, but on a Tuesday is available to all. (There are another 7 selections on this free report today – Click Here)

Today’s Selection

Southwell 2:10 Abi Scarlett – win bet – 5/4 Will Hill

Nano Betting Systems

Today we have an article from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com.

“Don’t put all your betting eggs in one basket.” The art of “nano” systems.

I like many people who have betting and creating systems for many years believe in creating very specific systems that find trends based on very specific criteria.

I call them “nano” systems.

I have 3 main criteria when creating a nano system.

It is created using one of the five race types (Flat, Hurdle, Chase, All Weather or national hunt flat).

It uses specific criteria like age group or form element or even a particular runner type.


It will generally be looking at 30 or less selections a month sometimes as little as 10 or less.

Although there is no real criteria on the amount of points a nano system may make a month it is generally accepted that’s this will probably be 10 or less points per month.

There are two main reasons why you may want to consider creating nano betting systems.

The first is it allows you to find niches within a sport like horse racing that has possibly been over looked and so allows you select runners that either offer better value or that allow you to win more often than statistically you should.

Secondly it allows you to build up a portfolio of targeted systems that combined could allow you to make more profit than may have be earned by using just one system.

Like the old saying “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket”

But let’s have a look at an example.

One of the great things about Nano type systems is that you can be so specific that you can even just choose one day of a week to base your system around.

Now I know not everyone will agree that days of the week should matter to a system and it’s not always the case. But in this instance I did find a system that over the last 16 months has produced a profit.

Of course it could be a trend and it has had some losing months but it has still produced a profit since I first introduced it on the 22/02/2014.

And even last month made 9.43 points

In this case the system used our “in house” rating system (available to users) and used a number of race and form elements to drill down to find this system.

In fact the tool I used (the SPB system builder) has improved so much since I created the system that it is probably worth looking at it again.

Another system I have just introduced is based around French horses doing well in particular UK races.

I haven’t worked out why they seem to do so well but there is an apparent trend at the moment in certain races.

One other trend I have just noticed is in races where there are just three runners.

I found a profit of 76.473 points could have been made over the last 69 races at BSP (after commission) on certain race types.

I have actually put together a guide for you so you can see exactly how to find the selections.

Find out more here. 3 Runner System

This one actually breaks my first rule but it was spotted accidentally when I was researching statistics for number of runners in a race for a client.

This is just 3 examples of the type of systems you can come up when looking for a more targeted system.

In the next article I will have some more examples of “Nano” systems and some that you can follow automatically.

Thank you for reading I really appreciate it.

Malcolm
Grey Horse Bot.

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today’s Selection

9.15 Kempton Loraine – eachway bet – 13/2 Bet 365

Creating Betting Systems III

Today we have a regular weekly catch up with Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

In the first two articles we looked at why I like systems and how I came up with the ideas.

In this final part I want to share with you some other things I have learned along the way which may help you when designing your own.

First of all it easy to get caught up in an idea…

Often you pursue an idea and start looking for ways to make it more profitable by filtering out more and more races until you end up with something that resembles the system you want.

I call this “Stacking and Racking” filters.

The problem is, everytime you add one filter you affect another and the more you “stack and Rack” the more likely it is that you have missed a better more profitable angle.

When you add a filter you should step back and see how that one filter works on its own against the original idea.

Secondly sample size is really important.


If you do a search initially on hurdle races you could have a massive sample size which will give you a good indication of the statistics.

Sometime during your research you may see that filtering out a certain element like an age group or last time out result may appear to improve the system.

But you have to be aware that a small sample size could be misleading and may not give you a very accurate statistic.

I don’t normally use a filter unless I have s sample size of at least 100 and really prefer much higher.

Finally you may want to stick to one race type. Hurdle, Chase, AW, NHF and Flat are all different types of racing.

It isn’t very often that you find a system that works well on one race type will also work just as well on another.

Even when you do…you will often see different win/loss trends across the race types.

If you analyse them individually you will probably find filters that work better on one than they do on others.

To finish off this series of articles here are some other things you may want to consider if you decide to develop your own systems.

Be aware of trends. All weather systems are a classic when it comes to trends.

Something that appears to have worked for the last 6 months or maybe even a year suddenly doesn’t.


Many archives don’t include Non Runners. This is not a big problem until you realise that on the day you may have selected that NR and not have been aware of it not running.

I find this really important when looking at runners ranked by a Rating Systems.



If you run the ratings leaving out NR’s you will of course get different selections than if you left them in. Don’t forget you don’t always here about NR’s until after the off. 


Don’t forget when you look at a system you are seeing the results based on SP or BSP and without you adding money into the market. 
You will only see how well it performs when you start using it.


Paper Test first always…Then small stakes. 

Any money into a market effects the price no matter how little. I use what I call “Price Pressure” to see what effect lowering the Average Winning Odds will have on a system.


Always be aware of your Strike Rate and Average winning odds. Look out for trends of either falling. But be aware short term trends can give false impressions.

You need to look at your system month by month to get an idea of how it performs and always create a graph. There is nothing like a visual display to show you how a system has performed.


Watch out for the “One big winner trap”. You often find a collection of data looks really profitable only to find it is actually just one or two big winners that actually created all the profit.


Finally please remember this…

I am a big believer in betting systems but I also realise that the biggest flaw with them is that you are using the past to predict the future.

The big advantage of creating your own systems is that you can tailor them to suit your own style of betting and instead of creating one. You can create many “nano” type systems that look at one particular type of racing.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
“The Nerd”

Find out more about the Greyhorse Bot at http://greyhorsebot.com

Today’s Selection courtesy of http://bookiesenemyno1.com

7.20 Hamilton Bi Focal 3/1 generally

In Running Delusion!

Today we have a guest article from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

1.09 in running just won’t work…

Hi

Every so often we get an influx of support questions about betting in-play and the issues people are getting when they are trying to get matched at 1.09 or whatever the latest fad is regarding this idea.

This idea has been going around in different forms since Betfair began and is based around getting matched as often as you can on the horse that looks like it will win the race.

The normal explanation is that you get on the first runner that drops below a certain price.

It’s started in the early days of getting matched at 1.01 or 1.02 gradually it has moved out to 1.09 or somewhere close.

On paper the ideas may sound feasible but in practice it really doesn’t work that well and here is why…

The problem lies with Betfair’s matching policy.

If you put a “back” bet into the market at 1.09 then only 3 things can happen.

1. You get matched at 1.09
2. You don’t get matched at all.
3. You get matched higher than 1.09.

You get matched at 1.09

If you are lucky and as soon as you put your bet into the market Betfair has enough money on the lay side to match your bet, you will get matched at 1.09.


You don’t get matched at all.

Betfair will not match a back bet under the price you asked for, so if the price has moved past 1.09 IE it has continued shortening you will not get matched.

You get matched higher than 1.09

Betfair’s policy allows them to match a back bet at a higher price than you asked for. This is how the exchange works if they couldn’t do this then Betfair wouldn’t exist.

So if the price drifts because the horse no longer looks like a winner then you will get matched at the higher price.

So with the above in mind let me show you how this idea is flawed.

You are sitting there watching the screen or running a bot that is set to put a bet into the market either on the first runner to hit 1.09 or a pre determined named runner.

The runner hits 1.09 and you place your bet into the market.

So our first assumption is that this runner is likely to win the race because it has hit 1.09.

If it is winning the race (and a lot of people will be watching live at the course checking this) then two things will be happening….

1. All the people out there using a similar strategy will be putting as much money into the market as they can.

2. Many traders will be trying to offset an earlier lay bet.

If this horse is looking like it will win the race that price of 1.09 won’t be there for long…Probably less than a second.

So if you’re doing this manually your probably be too late and even bots may not be quick enough.

The biggest issue will be that Betfair won’t have enough money to match at 1.09 and because they can not match your back bet under 1.09, then you will end up with an “unmatched” bet.

But then we have the other side…

Again we see the price go under 1.09 and we are at the same scenario as before except this time something happens on the course and suddenly our selection is no longer winning.

So the opposite starts to happen and the layers get into the market and probably a lot of traders.

Before we know it the price goes from 1.09 to 1.2 or higher and you are just in line to get matched as soon as Betfair can.

In theory this could be as high as 999 but it doesn’t matter it is over 1.09 so you have been matched on a runner you weren’t expecting. (A runner that no longer looks like winning)

The real point is that you are going to find it easier to get matched on a runner that has hit 1.09 and then goes on to lose, than you will on one that goes on to win.

The complaint we always get from people who do not understand the way Betfair works is that you were matched higher than 1.09.

Yep and that will happen a lot because that’s the way Betfair works!

Just a little more information…

First of all if a runner goes to 1.09 then that would have been your selection. It doesn’t matter what price you get matched at after that, unless your runner goes onto win then you lose your stake.

The point is (according to the rules of the system you are following) the runner did hit 1.09 at some stage so it was a selection.

Secondly if you stick to 1.09 then you probably won’t get matched often enough to make the idea viable.

Thirdly I am sorry to say but I know of people who have created very specialized software to follow this idea.

I believe many of these people also have people at the tracks feeding them information or they have a connection that lets them see the race live.

There are only two ways you may get this idea to work.

When your selections hits 1.09 you put the bet into the market at 1.01 and see how often you get matched and at what price and see if it works.


You put a bet into the market wait a second and then cancel. You either got matched or didn’t but at least you may not have wasted a bet on a runner that ended up losing.

As I said at the beginning on paper the idea seems as if it will work but in practice it is a different matter.

Still some sites still insist on selling this strategy as “easy money”.

I don’t agree.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
“The Nerd”

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today’s Selection

2.35 Goodwood 7 Moonraker – eachway bet – 12/1 Bet 365

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