Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman) keeps sending winners our way and this week he looks at today's Doncaster card and tomorrows Aintree feature…
Weekend Racing Tips
Our mud-larks ran well at Ascot last weekend with Madame Chiang being the highlight winning at 12/1. Betfair backers would have been nicely rewarded with an SP of 18.
Not a lot of action this Friday, but I want to highlight the performance of Luca Cumani at Doncaster this season and he has a number of runners this afternoon.
We will also be taking a look at the Old Roan Chase from Aintree that takes centre stage on Saturday.
Luca Cumani is having a solid season and one track where he has done particularly well is Doncaster. Here are his statistics at the Yorkshire course this season to date:
Strike rate (% win): 38%
Strike rate (% place): 62%
Profit to level £1 stakes: £13.51
On Friday he runs:
3.30pm Sleeper King @25/1 (e/w ¼ odds, 5 places)
4.05pm Norway Cross @6/1
4.40pm Kleo @5/1
Dreamlike is a 2yo and Cumani has not had a 2yo winner at the course in the last 5 seasons (0-11).
I would not be overly concerned by that statistic as he has only had the two 2yo runners up at Doncaster this season.
Overall his juveniles are 7-34 this year at a highly respectable strike rate of 21%.
Dreamlike made an encouraging debut and there is likely more to come. The market could be quite informative of her chances and she could go well at a price.
Sleeper King has failed to progress from a promising 2yo campaign and he has shown nothing in 4 starts this year (form figures 0000). However, this is his first run for Cumani having previously been with Kevin Ryan. Caution is advised if you decide to back him.
Norway Cross is interesting up in trip having won at Windsor last time out and Kleo is still unexposed after two wins this season and a LTO fourth in a Listed race at Yarmouth in September. These two appear to have the best chances of the quartet.
The jumps season is starting to gather momentum and this Saturday sees the Old Roan Chase at Aintree.
This year’s renewal looks wide open and a case can be made for many including current favourite Uxizandre, Module, Rajdhani Express and last year’s winner Conquisto.
At the prices I think there is a bit of value in Conquisto to retain his crown if the ground stays good.
A lot of the higher rated horses in this race will have other targets such as the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Cheltenham festival whereas this looks like Conquisto’s main target.
He is 4lbs lower than when winning this last year and I think he could well have been laid out for this.
As an each-way alternative then Astracad could outrun his price, especially as he seems to save some of his better performances for Aintree (including a decent 2nd in this last year).
In 2013 he ran in a 2 ½ mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham October meeting a week before lining up for this. He has followed exactly the same path this year and with the Twiston-Davies horses running well he can give each-way backers a decent run for their money.
If the rain arrives and there is a change in the going to soft then Wishfull Thinking would have to enter calculations. His last 3 wins have come on heavy, soft and soft going. He is rated 162 but he won twice off this mark last season.
Saturday Aintree 3.00pm
Conquisto @7/1 (if the ground remains good)
Each-way alternatives: Astracad @14/1 & Wishfull Thinking @14/1 (soft or worse)