Tag Archives: miles

Create your own speed ratings

Over the last few years I have created a number of different ratings for our own use and clients but these have all be form related.

So I guess it was only a matter of time before the question of speed ratings came up.

Some people argue that speed is the only real way to judge a horses chance of winning a race…

But as with all things racing, it is never quite that simple.

Speed of course is related to distance.

It is the time it took the horse to run the race divided by the distance that gives us the speed at which the horse travelled.

Continue Reading

Please follow and like us:

Nick Hardman Tips

Anybody that followed our Friday Nick Hardman columns in 2014 will have made plenty of profit from the selections posted.

2015 has already got off to a great start and today Nick has selections at Huntingdon and Doncaster and selections for tomorrows Lanzarote…

=====
We had a great start to 2015 with 3 winners from our 5 AW selections in addition to L’Ami Serge winning comfortably and Triolo D’Alene grabbing some place money @16/1 under a brilliant ride by Barry Geraghty on Saturday.

This week we turn our attention to the Friday cards at Huntingdon and Doncaster and we have a couple of selections for the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton on Saturday.

Nicky Henderson has a 44% strike rate at Huntingdon in the last 2 years. In that time he has sent out 15 winners from 34 runners. 9 of those winners were in hurdles races and he is 3-4 in maiden hurdles at the course.

Today he has a couple of qualifiers who are pretty much unknown quantities.

Huntingdon 1.20pm Maestro Royale
Huntingdon 2.30pm Hel Tara

Nicky Henderson also does well at Doncaster with his hurdlers. In the last two years his hurdlers at the course are 15-37 (41% strike rate) and show a level stakes profit of £37.46.

His handicap hurdlers have a lower strike rate (31%) but tend to pop up at decent prices with his last 4 handicap hurdle winners at the course returning industry SPs of 16/1, 15/2, 8/1 and 8/1. He has a trio of hurdle runners today.

Doncaster 12.30pm Saint Charles (Maiden hurdle)
Doncaster 1.35pm Nicolas Chauvin (Novice hurdle)
Doncaster 3.15pm Earth Amber (Handicap hurdle)

The Lanzarote Hurdle is one of the feature races on Saturday and I like the look of Dawalan and Hello George who are both backable each-way at 8/1.

Dawalan represents the Henderson/ Geraghty combination.

Back in November he got to within half a length of Sign Of A Victory over 2 miles and the latter is now rated 149 over hurdles having been last seen in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Kempton.

Dawalan also had the re-opposing Kilcooley 16 lengths behind that day and that horse has gone on and franked that form (2nd to L’Ami Serge and 23 length winner at Haydock on his next two starts).

What is more significant though in the context of the Lanzarote hurdle is Dawalan’s battling victory at Ascot over 2m 4f on his last start.

That day he was outpaced and 5 lengths down three from home, but rallied gamely to get up close home to beat stable mate and 145 rated Bear’s Affair.

The extra furlong should suit and he gets a whole stone from Kilcooley who heads the weights.

Hello George ran a good race in the Ladbroke Hurdle, not beaten that far in 6th. He probably needs more of a test than the 2 miles he faced that day and he certainly gets it here.

He was tapped for toe in the Ladbroke but stayed on nicely to suggest the step up in trip may well suit.

He gets in off a light weight of 10st and that should see him competitive if he sees out the trip.

Saturday January 10th

Kempton 2.40 pm Dawalan 8/1 and Hello George 8/1 (1pt e/w ¼ odds, 4 places)

Please follow and like us:

King George Tips

A big days racing today with the highlight being the King George Chase.

Tomorrow we have the Welsh National to look forward to.

Nick Hardman (http://bettinginsiders.com) looks at both races and gives his selections.
=======
Last week we landed 2 winners from 4 selections at SP’s of 15/2 and 7/4.

This week we turn our attention to the two big races over the Xmas period – the King George VI Chase and the Welsh National.

I have covered both races in detail in the latest issue of the Betting Insiders Magazine and my opinion for the King George has not changed in that Silviniaco Conti is the best staying chaser in training right now.

I put him up as an ante-post tip in the Betting Insiders December issue @4/1.

He is now a best priced 5/2 and if you think that is value then back him.

Cue Card has disappointed this season and was out-stayed by Silviniaco Conti in last year’s King George and I cannot see him reversing that form. Champagne Fever had a hit-and-miss novice season. He was beaten in both the Leopardstown Xmas festival and Punchestowns Festival and arguably his best performance was his 2nd place finish in the Arkle. He was impressive on his seasonal reappearance when he beat Alderwood over 2 ½ miles.

The King George is much tougher and he is too short in my opinion at 10/3.

Al Ferof easily won the Amlin Chase over 2m 3f at Ascot in November and was third in the King George last year (beaten 14 ½ lengths). He has won 5 of his 11 chase starts but has come up short tackling 3 miles in the past. He was slammed 25 lengths by Harry Topper in the Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury last February over 3 miles and followed that up with a disappointing 5th in the Ryanair.

I think his form flatters to deceive and I cannot see him winning this year’s King George.

I think Dynaste is a much better each-way proposition as he definitely gets the 3 mile trip and ran Silviniaco Conti to within 1 ¼ lengths in the Grade 1 Betfred Bowl at Aintree in April. Beaten 10 lengths by Silviniaco Conti in November’s Betfair Chase was a decent effort first time out this season and I think he rates a danger to the favourite.

He is one for the each-way backers @14/1 or those who want to play the place market.

King George VI Chase:

Selection: Silviniaco Conti @5/2
Each-way alternative: Dynaste @8/1

The Welsh National is a great race for trends analysis and this is the typical profile:

• Aged 7yo or 8yo
• A top 4 finish LTO
• Carrying 10-09 or less (10-0 or 10-01 if the going is heavy)
• Had last raced 16 – 60 days previously
• Had 1 or 2 runs in the current season
• Had previously raced over 3m 5 ½ furlongs of further (preferably 4+ miles)

Those that currently fit the profile are Global Power, Amigo and Emperor’s Choice.

It remains to be seen if any make the final cut.

Amigo for David Pipe was runner up in the trial race 3 weeks ago and finished 7th in this last year. He has winning form at Chepstow over 3 miles and acts on the ground.

Oliver Sherwood’s Global Power has bits and pieces of form over staying trips including a 4th place finish in 2013 Midlands National and a win in the Cumberland Handicap Chase over 3m 2f on heavy ground in 2013 and a 2nd place finish in the same race 12 months later.

Emperor’s Choice for Venetia Williams won the 2013 Surrey National over 3m 4f on heavy ground and followed that up with a win in the West Wales National in 2014 over 3m 4f. His chase form on heavy going reads 2111612. A thorough stayer if ever there was one.

Welsh National trends horses:

Global Power @25/1
Emperor’s Choice @25/1
Amigo @14/1

Please follow and like us:
Facebook
Twitter
RSS
Follow by Email
Google+
https://dailypunt.com/tag/miles/">

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close