Racing Tips – Nick Hardman

Today we have my favourite column of the week, the Nick Hardman – Betting Insiders column.

Before I hand you over to Nick just to mention that there is a qualifier from the Tongue Tie system, which we are paper trading currently and that's 16:15 Sandown Paddy The Stout.

If you enjoy Nick's columns as much as I do then do check out the Betting School Insiders Club where you can enjoy more of his wisdom.

Here's Nick…

We have jumps racing at Fakenham and Sandown today and Nicky Henderson’s runners might be worth a second look in the betting markets given his record at both tracks.

Since January 2011 he has sent 30 runners to Fakenham and 13 have won. However, backing each of those runners to level stakes would have resulted in a very small loss at SP.

Dig a little deeper and we find that his Fakenham runners are 1-6 in chases, 8-19 in hurdles races and 4-5 in bumper races.

Taking a closer look at the hurdlers we find they are 5-10 in novice races, 2-5 in maiden races and 1-4 in handicaps.

He has the following entries at the time of writing:

1.45 Medieval Chapel (Beginners’ Chase)
3.25pm Clean Sheet (Novices’ Hurdle)
4.35pm Clemency (Mares’ NH Flat Race)

At Sandown, Nicky Henderson has had 35 winners from 145 runners in the last 5 years at a strike rate of 24% and shows a level stakes profit of £36.07.

His hurdlers are 26-95 (27% strike rate) and show a profit of £47.72.

He has won with 8 of his last 18 hurdlers at the course for a profit of £27.69.

The Barry Geraghty/ Nicky Henderson partnership has teamed up for 17 hurdle winners at Sandown from 42 runners at an impressive strike rate of 41% and a level stakes profit of £41.12.

Nicky Henderson has the following entries at Sandown today:

2.30pm Broxbourne (Geraghty) & Hel Tara (Mares’ Novice Hurdle)

One of the feature races of the weekend is the Grand National Trial at Haydock.

Last Friday our trends analysis identified Violet Dancer as a likely candidate for the Betfair Hurdle and I am hoping for more of the same this weekend.

The key trends are a win over 3m or further, aged 9yo – 11yo, not raced in the last 31 days, raced over 3m 5f or further, a top two finish LTO and trained by Paul Nicholls, Lucinda Russell or Venetia Williams.

In addition, only 3 winners since 1997 have carried more than 11st to victory on soft or heavy going.

There is one horse who ticks all the trends boxes apart from the trainer box and that is Harry The Viking.

He has not won since his novice days from where he went on to finish runner-up to Teaforthree in the National Hunt Chase at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival.

That run earned him a rating of 143 and he competed in the Scottish National, The Hennessy and the Grand National after that.

However, he failed to build on that early promise and his mark plummeted to 122.

Off that mark he ran his best race in a long time when runner-up to Lie Forrit last time out when 2lbs out of the handicap. He has been raised just 2lbs for that effort.

Haydock Grand National Trial – Harry The Viking @20/1 (e/w)

At that price he would be the biggest winner since Rambling Minster @18/1 in 2009 but Rigadin De Beauchene won this @16/1 last year and 8 of the last 12 winners returned SPs of 10/1 or higher.

Please follow and like us:

Quick Returns National Hunt Profits

Ok as promised yesterday, today I'm looking at quick winning returners in National Hunt races.

The head line figures for horses that have run and won within the last 5 days in National Hunt races across the UK and Ireland are…

Strike rate = 35%

Return on Investment = 12%

So the first thing to note is that over the long term there is a profit from these runners.

So let's dig in a bit and see what we can find.

The first thing I note is that 10 out of the last 11 years have shown a profit.

Unfortunately the year that lost was 2013, so that's not so encouraging.

So we started this journey looking at the difference between UK and Irish racing so lets see how they compare.

UK Ireland
Runs  936  377
Wins  353  115
Strike Rate  38%  31%
Profit iSP  + 123.75  + 36.28
ROI %  + 13.22 %  + 9.62 %

This time around it looks like we should focus on UK racing.

So, where to next. Let's start with age and sex, which might knock out some losers.

Female horses have a lower strike rate (32%) and produce a loss, so we'll drop them.

Dropping females brings 2013 up into a small profit.

With age, I would expect that older horses may make a loss, and they do.

But also as we are looking at National Hunt racing maybe very young horses should be excluded also.

Looking at the stats, the profit is in horses between 5 years old and 11 years old.

That makes sense to me so I'll restrict our search to horses in that range.

As you no doubt know, when researching systems it's easy to add any rule that makes your system look profitable.

But I think we are safe here because we have started with an initial idea, horses that won within the last 5 days running in a National Hunt race.

We've excluded female horses which is a straightforward removal that applies to lots of systems. And we've restricted our age range to drop out the very old, and past it, and the very young and immature.

Where to next?

I'm thinking there is probably a difference between Hurdle, Chase and NH Flat races.

In the last 11 years there are only 2 qualifying runs in NH Flat races, so we'll drop those.

The difference between hurdle races and chases is quite stark.

The strike rates are very similar but the profit is much greater in the Chases!

We are now getting down to quite a small sub set and will be down to only about 40 bets per year, but such is the way these days with a collection of micro systems being the only real way to win for system followers.

The end result for

Uk, National Hunt Chase runners that have won within the last 5 days and are male aged between 5 & 11 are…

Runs  340
Wins  136
Strike Rate  40%
Profit iSP  + 131.12
ROI %  + 38.56 %


Today's Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders

14:00 Lingfield – Global Explorer – Win Bet 3/1 Bet Victor

Please follow and like us:

Cheltenham Day Two

Well I thoroughly enjoyed yesterdays racing but walked away a bit poorer.

Paddy Power refunded all my Arkle Chase bets so no loss there.

Of the others I had some good runs for my money but no profit other than my biggest bet on deservedly short priced Quevega.

Cheltenham Day Two

Today I will be backing Sizing Europe (3.20). The even money is gone now, but this horse is a class above the opposition here.

As yesterday we have been allowed to give you Mark Foley's assessment of the first race of the day.


A typical winner of this race is a 7 or 8yo, who has had at least three races over fences and finished in the first 4 LTO. Last year’s winner was the first outright winning favourite of the race since 1992.
Since the race structure was altered five of the last 9 winners carried 11-6 or 11-7 and all but one of the last ten winners carried between 11-6 and 11-11.

The market also appears to have stabilised in recent years, with the biggest priced winner in the last 4 years being 14/1 shot Poker De Sivola. Being a race for amateur riders it’s important to have a decent jock on your side and the last 3 winning jocks have all been top class amateurs. (Derek O’Connor, Katie Walsh and Sam Waley Cohen.)
The younger runners get an age allowance, but generally it isn’t considered enough for them to win although Tricky Trickster did baulk the trend 3 years ago; the only 6 yo in the race is Four Commanders.

Blenheim Brook
Lively Baron
Universal Soldier

All four of the runners shortlisted are running off 11-6, but Teafrothree would be giving the other four shortlisted runners at least 8 lbs if this was a handicap and he also has the benefit of arguably the best rider in the race.

JT McNamara won this race on the Jonjo O’Neill trained Rith Dubh. His record at Cheltenham is a superb 12 wins from 49 races, although most of the wins have come on the Cross country course.

Teaforthree held an RSA entry and was keeping company with Grand Crus no less in a grade 1 chase over Christmas. The stable appear to have made a wise choice taking in this race rather than the RSA and if his rating of 146 is realistic, which it appears to be then TeaforThree looks to hold a good chance of taking this.

That rating was achieved at Chepstow in a Novice chase in November and the 2nd, 3rd and 4th home that day have all come out and franked the form since. He returned to Chepstow in February and won again, but races off the same mark again today.

He looks progressive and the form line with Join Together who is 3rd favourite for the RSA gives him a good chance in this lesser race.

Paul Nicholls has a poor record in this race – only 1 of the 14 runners he has previously entered in the race has even made the frame, but Harry the Viking is the early favourite for this race.

History tells us that winners of this race need a good deal of experience to deal with the hustle and bustle of a big field and it must be a concern that he has only had 5 career races and two over fences. He does look progressive and his form is impressive, but he has been put up 8lb for winning by a head LTO at Doncaster.

Lively baron was 8 lengths behind that day and a disappointing favourite but followed up with a 16 lengths win at Warwick last month. At the revised weights today Lively Baron shouldn’t be far behind Harry the Viking and the 33/1 looks too big, especially when you consider how well the McCain runners performed yesterday.

Irish based trainers have a poor record in the race, but Gordon Elliot broke the trend last year and Soll is very unexposed coming from point to points and has a decent jockey in Katie Walsh. He has never raced on ground this firm, but looked most impressive in winning LTO

Selection: Teaforthree 6/1 with Hills
Danger: Soll
EW Danger: Lively Baron

To get the rest of the day two selections Click Here to join the Betting Insiders Club


Today’s Selection Sponsored by Betting Insiders Club

Cotton Mill 2.05 Cheltenham 1pt WIN @ 10`1 general

Very good flat pedigree and looks a class act. By not being trained by one of the top stables he seems to have been overpriced by the bookies.

Please follow and like us:
Follow by Email

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.