Tag Archives: negatives

Nick Hardman Free Tips

A bright Friday morning brings with it the joy of six tips from the excellent Nick Hardman of the Betting School Insiders Club

We have some decent racing today with the meetings at Doncaster and Huntingdon standing out by some way. I have gone through the cards and picked out some horses with strong chances as well as picking out a couple of bigger priced each-way runners.

John Ferguson is 4-11 with his hurdlers at Doncaster in non-handicap races in the last 3 years for a level stakes profit of £9.29. He runs Buckwheat in the novice hurdle race at 1.05pm and champ AP McCoy is booked to ride.

Nicky Henderson’s Days Of Heaven rates a big danger after showing much improved form in a first time hood when scoring at Ludlow (hood fitted again here). With that in mind there are options for the forecast with these two likely to be a lot better than the rest.

Steel Summit’s winning sequence must come to an end at some point but the manner of his latest victory and the fact he is 10lbs well-in at the weights make him one of the strongest bets on the card in the 2.50pm.

Nicky Henderson has a good chance of taking the final race on the Doncaster card with Clondaw Banker in the maiden hurdle. His second behind Jolly’s Cracked it at Ascot back in November is smart form and he ran that same rival to within a length next time out. A reproduction of either of those efforts should be enough to win this.

It’s not often a horse with form figures 8696 would interest me but you should always put those figures into the context of the race the horse is running in.

In this case the race is a novice handicap hurdle and a quick look at the rest of the runners reveal they too have form figures that look like the numbers round from Countdown.

The horse in question is Haleo and he runs in the 1.40pm today at Doncaster.

What drew my eye to him originally is that he is rated 97 in a race where the top rated horses are rated 99.

However, he gets a hefty 13lbs weight-for-age allowance from those two horses.

He ran well for a long way on his last start before fading two from home to finish 6th, beaten 10 lengths in total. He is the 20/1 outsider of the field here but I think that allowance will see him finish closer than market expectations.

Over at Huntingdon we have a similar scenario in the 4.05pm handicap hurdle that closes the card. Cyclop is joint-top rated with Harry Hunt on an official rating of 120.

However, the 4yo Cyclop gets 11lbs from his 8yo rival. Also in his favour is the booking of Sam Twiston-Davies and he also has a C&D win to his name. Up 6lbs for that latest win he might still have a bit of improvement in him.

The best race on the Huntingdon card is the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Qualifier and top rated Aubusson is sure to prove popular dropping back into a handicap.

His latest effort saw him finish 3rd in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle. Prior to that, he won the Grade 3 Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock to earn his current rating of 153.

He has to give 11lbs away here although Lizzie Kelly’s claim will off-set 7lbs of that.

However, this is a hot race with David Pipe’s Knight Of Noir also holding strong claims along with Dolatulo and Zeroshadesofgrey.

But the one really interesting runner is Ely Brown. He defied an absence of 198 days to win a Pertemps Qualifier at Ascot in 2012 off a mark of 125 and went on to finish 6th in the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham festival.

He defied an absence of 206 days to win the same Qualifier again in 2013 off a mark of 135 before being sent novice chasing where he won a Grade 2 on his second start.

He has not been seen in almost a year but it is interesting he goes back over hurdles and is racing here off a mark of 139.

Charlie Deutsch takes off 5lbs so that puts Ely Brown 1lb below his last winning hurdles mark.

He has won first time out in the last 2 seasons. This would be some training feat were he to take this and it will be interesting to see how he goes.

The negatives are that he is returning from injury (as opposed to a seasonal break) and word is he is being aimed at a tilt at the Grand National so this may just be a pipe-opener.

That said you often see Grand National horses running at the Cheltenham festival in the Pertemps Final.

My interest is perked just enough to have a little each-way @12/1.

Doncaster 1.05pm Buckwheat tweet this tip
Doncaster 1.40pm Haleo @20/1 (e/w) tweet this tip
Doncaster 2.50pm Steel Summit @6/4 tweet this tip
Doncaster 3.50pm Clondaw Banker tweet this tip
Huntingdon 3.05pm Ely Brown @12/1 (e/w) tweet this tip
Huntingdon 4.05pm Cyclop @9/2 tweet this tip

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Lingfield Trends

I had a National Hunt Trainer Trends piece lined up for today, but with no NH racing I've shelved that for now.

Luckily the guys from Betting School have jumped in to fill the void with a profile piece on 6 furlong handicaps at Lingfield.

With a bit of burning of the midnight oil I've applied the profile to today's 1.30 at Lingfield.

Before I get started I should just mention that it was a good night for readers that followed my lead and layed Rosemary in I'm a Celebrity who was evicted last night.

So what I have from the Betting School Insiders Club is positive and negative factors that apply to runners in 3 year old + and 4 year old + handicaps over 6 furlongs at Lingfield.

It is a detailed piece that I can't fully share here, but here are the key factors that have been concluded…

Positives
Draws 3-6
Top five in the weights
Ran at Lingfield aw LTO Finished 2nd to 4th LTO
Favourites 2nd – 5th in the betting market LTO
Racing in same class as LTO

Negatives
Drawn 9 or higher 7th or higher in the weights
Aged 8 or older
Ran at Southwell aw LTO Finished 7th or worse LTO
7th or bigger in the betting market LTO
Class droppers

In the table below I have marked how each runner scores against each factor with a + for the positive factors and a – for negative factors.

 

Lingfield Race Profiles

Click to Enlarge

Now I was hoping that my work would highlight an outsider with a great chance, but if you look at the table you'll see that apart from the draw the favourite, We Have A Dream, ticks all the positive boxes and has non of the negatives.

Others worth a look are Hatta Stream, The Strig and the Dancing Lord.

The Dancing Lord is the rank outsider is up in class and has never had a win on the All Weather.

The Strig is a course and distance winner back in January, but off a lower mark.

Hatta Stream looks capable but is on a long losing run of 16.

All in all it looks like a race for the favourite, which was 4/1 earlier this morning but is now generally 7/2.

For the full research and much more try the Betting School Insiders Club for just £1, Click Here.

Today's Selections courtesy of the Winning Information Network

Kempton

7.00 Whaileyy 7/1 (General) Each Way

7.30 Jackie Love 17/2 (Betvictor) Each Way

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Weekend Tips – Football & Racing

We have a great weekend of sporting action with the highlight being the Guineas festival just down the road from me at racing headquarters.

We've already put up our selection for the 2,000 Guineas…

2000 Guineas selection – Abtaal – each way bet – 7/1 with Bet 365

In the 1,000 Guineas it's harder to find negatives about Maybe and I wouldn't be surprised to see her win. But I'm going to go with a value each way bet on Diala.

1,000 Guineas selection – Diala – each way bet – 16/1 Paddy Power.

Football Bet courtesy of Football-Tips (Do visit their site if you are interested in longe term profits)

3.00pm Exeter v Sheffield United

Exeter are already relegated and will want to go out with heads held high. United are looking for automatic promotion and need a win.

It goes without saying that Sheffield will score, as they go for it right from the off. The question is will Exeter score?

They have scored in their last 8 games Home and Away and United have conceded in 9 of their last 10, so I am going for this.

Back Both Teams to Score @ 4/5 with Skybet for 1 point

 

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Newmarket 2000 Guineas Selection

Thanks to those of you who were bold enough to put up your selections for the Guineas races. (read them here)

Before I tell you what I'm going with, and it's one mentioned in the comments, let's look at why we are opposing Camelot.

Camelot has run twice and won twice. Both races were in 5 runner fields the last run being in the Racing Post Trophy.

It is forty years since a Racing Post Trophy winner won the 2000 Guineas the following season!

Both of his previous runs were on good going and the Newmarket going is soft.

Camelot Jockey Joseph O'Brien had this to say

the possibility of soft ground is “a question mark” for the son of Montjeu, who has so far raced only on a sound surface. (via Guardian)

Which brings us on to the final negative. This from the Irish Field

Even more significantly, any son of Montjeu has an extremely damning statistic to overcome in the 2000 Guineas. Montjeu has sired over 150 horses that have been officially rated 100 or higher. Yet, of all those talented horses, not a single one of them has won a Group race at a mile or shorter as a three-year-old or older in Europe. Indeed, just a handful of them have won at Listed level within that criteria, with one of those being, interestingly enough, Hurricane Fly. It is very rare to have a black-and-white statistic of such notability in the case of a well-established sire and the significance of such a stat shouldn’t be underplayed in the case of Camelot.

With those negatives against Camelot win or lose it represents bad value at 6/4.

The value alternative.

The selection we are going with is second favourite Abtaal.

Racing Post rate Abtaal 131 (Camelot = 133) and he is a horse that has won on Very Soft ground in France.

He did finish second last time out after stumbling in the final furlong but at 7/1 we can afford the odd negative and still have a value bet.

2000 Guineas selection – Abtaal – each way bet.

Todays Selection courtesy of Trainer Trends

Musselburgh 3.30 Muffin McCleay 9/2 – 1 pt win

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