Tag Archives: norm

Favourite Average Price Rise

Today we have our regular weekly column from Malcolm Pett of GreyHorseBot.com
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In the last couple or articles we have been looking at the results from an interactive test we have been doing over at the Grey Horse Bot website.

Part of this test is also to discover if it is better to be on all the selections or to stop at the first winner of the day.

I picked 220 or above as my rating figure (see later why this may still be to low).

It hasn’t been the best of weeks for this number and it was only because of a 6.3 winner a couple of days ago that we are still showing any profit for this month.

This is a bit of a shame as it was a lot more positive last week…

…But that’s racing for you.

I am a statistical type of person so I don’t like to blame the weather.

And I do know this…

Favourites average prices tend to drop slightly in the winter.

I am not sure why but it could be that there are less races so they are more heavily backed than they normally would be.

But a quick check on the averages over the last couple of years shows that from the height in the summer of 3.5 (sometimes higher) in the winter this can drop to around 3.1.

And although the strike rate of this particular system has dropped off slightly…

…The amount of favourites winning is slightly better than the norm this month.

Which again, strangely, seems to happen around the winter months.

But back to the system test…

I am still not convinced that SAW is the best way to go but it is going to take more testing to actually make that decision.

If you crank the ratings figure up to 240 then things look a little better for all selections and it may be my choice of 220 was still a little low.

This will probably be my last report about this test for a few weeks.

Unless something amazing happens!

You can see the results from this test and get the daily selections here.

Thanks
Malcolm
The Grey Horse Bot

GreyHorseBot.com

Today's Selection

2:00 Lingfield Ershaad – win bet 5/6 Bet Victor

Profitable Trainers and Jockeys

Today Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com talks about the research he is doing into profitable trainers and jockeys.

Profitable Trainers and Jockeys

Over the last year or so I have got really interested in Jockey and Trainers.

There is always a lot of talk about following the ones that are “in form”.

One thing I have learned is that it is not easy following them but if you manage your money correctly and are prepared to follow through then they can be rewarding.

One of the “open” tests we have been running at the Grey Horse Bot web site for the last 5 months is 16 jockeys to follow on the flat (grass only).

For me this system shows quite clearly how “interesting” it can be to follow Jockeys.

I have to admit I didn’t do too much work on this system I just took the top 16 jockeys that had over 200 runs (in our database at the time) and had made at least 10 points profit and had a strike rate of over 10%

So far this season (2014) combined:

3626 Selection


484 Wins


13.35 % Strike rate


277.97 points profit (at BSP -5%)


AWO 7.44


ROI 7.67%

When you look at statistics from a system there are always one or two figures that can give you an understanding to how hard it can be to follow a system.

13.35% strike rate normally means some long losing runs.


ROI 7.67 also points to a lot of work to earn those 277 points.

Of course with a bit more work and study we could have probably cut out some of the races and maybe even some of the Jockey could have been dropped.

But it does show that they can be very profitable even if they can be hard work to follow.

With the jump season upon us it’s a good time to look at some other statistics.

If we take Jockeys running on Handicap Hurdles with at least 100 runs (over the last two years).

Even the best only manage an average strike rate of around 16 to 18%.

You can find higher strike rates on jockeys with less runs so it is always worth looking for Jockeys that maybe only pick certain races to run in or new ones that appear to have started well.

This figure alone should tell you that you need to see if any jockey you want to follow does better in certain types of races of with specific trainers.

Trainers (less runs) do not fare much better on overall strike rate with the average being pretty similar to Jockeys.

The really interesting statistic is Jockeys and Trainers.

There is no doubt that there are pairings that are very successful like A P McCoy and Jim Best.

Strike rate on many of these are as high as 50% (over the last 2 years) and many are in the 30 to 40% range.

Some of these pairings can be very profitable especially some on the less well known ones.

So if you don’t like the idea of following Jockeys or Trainers on their own because of the low strike rate then the answer could be Jockey and Trainer pairs.

Check out open testing in the Article section of the Grey Horse Bot web site.

Malcolm Pett

Grey Horse Bot

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

4.00 Ludlow The Bear Trap – win bet – 4/1 Sky Bet

Strike Rate Vs Odds

Today we have a guest post from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

As you are probably well aware making money from gambling is about 2 things…
Strike rate and Average winning odds.

As strike rate goes up average winning odds can come down.

You tend to end up with two choices.

Low strike rate but high odds winners. This probably represents the real value end of the scale where you are picking runners that most people think have very little chance of winning.

Most of the time they are correct but every so often one comes in…

And normally at a very good price.

The strike rate of these systems is generally between 10 and 20%.

If you run a system like this then it’s probably better to use Betfair because the odds on outsiders can often be far better than you will find at the bookies.

Look out for long losing runs because these normally spell disaster for the un-aware punter.

Then we have the high strike rate but low odds end of the spectrum.

Here you are likely to be on the first or second favourite and value is going to be a real issue.

Strike rate should be in the high 30’s but even better if you can get to 40% or more.

Keeping an eye on your average winning odds is going to be critical and you will probably have to watch the exchanges and the bookies or even use a BOG bookie to get the best prices.

Your job here will probably be to match or beat SP as often as you can.

The perfect scenario would be somewhere in between the two but it is unlikely you will find one system that will have a reasonable strike rate with value bets.

Probably the best way to achieve this would be to use “Nano” systems.

On their own these types of systems have very few selections but tend to have strike rates of 20% or more.

Combining a number of them together means you have a better chance of getting a reasonable strike rate and achieving value.

It does mean you have more systems to follow but the long term profit could be worth the effort.

Over at the Grey Horse Bot website we test all these ideas.

At the moment we have a couple of tests looking to achieve strike rates of 40% and 50%.

As already discussed you will find the prices on the winners can be quite short but it can be surprising when you get the odd higher priced winner.

We are also running long term tests on system that have a much lower strike rate.
And you can see very clearly from the results that these types of systems have long losing runs and often only get into profit because of big priced winning selections.

When you decide on what type of system(s) to follow you have to ask yourself can you take the losing runs or are you prepared to look for the best price.

Otherwise a bunch of “Nano” systems may be the best thing for you.

Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.

Malcolm

Malcom Pett is the creator of the Grey Horse Bot http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

6.45 Kempton Gibeon – win bet – 7/2 Bet 365

Creating Betting Systems III

Today we have a regular weekly catch up with Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

In the first two articles we looked at why I like systems and how I came up with the ideas.

In this final part I want to share with you some other things I have learned along the way which may help you when designing your own.

First of all it easy to get caught up in an idea…

Often you pursue an idea and start looking for ways to make it more profitable by filtering out more and more races until you end up with something that resembles the system you want.

I call this “Stacking and Racking” filters.

The problem is, everytime you add one filter you affect another and the more you “stack and Rack” the more likely it is that you have missed a better more profitable angle.

When you add a filter you should step back and see how that one filter works on its own against the original idea.

Secondly sample size is really important.


If you do a search initially on hurdle races you could have a massive sample size which will give you a good indication of the statistics.

Sometime during your research you may see that filtering out a certain element like an age group or last time out result may appear to improve the system.

But you have to be aware that a small sample size could be misleading and may not give you a very accurate statistic.

I don’t normally use a filter unless I have s sample size of at least 100 and really prefer much higher.

Finally you may want to stick to one race type. Hurdle, Chase, AW, NHF and Flat are all different types of racing.

It isn’t very often that you find a system that works well on one race type will also work just as well on another.

Even when you do…you will often see different win/loss trends across the race types.

If you analyse them individually you will probably find filters that work better on one than they do on others.

To finish off this series of articles here are some other things you may want to consider if you decide to develop your own systems.

Be aware of trends. All weather systems are a classic when it comes to trends.

Something that appears to have worked for the last 6 months or maybe even a year suddenly doesn’t.


Many archives don’t include Non Runners. This is not a big problem until you realise that on the day you may have selected that NR and not have been aware of it not running.

I find this really important when looking at runners ranked by a Rating Systems.



If you run the ratings leaving out NR’s you will of course get different selections than if you left them in. Don’t forget you don’t always here about NR’s until after the off. 


Don’t forget when you look at a system you are seeing the results based on SP or BSP and without you adding money into the market. 
You will only see how well it performs when you start using it.


Paper Test first always…Then small stakes. 

Any money into a market effects the price no matter how little. I use what I call “Price Pressure” to see what effect lowering the Average Winning Odds will have on a system.


Always be aware of your Strike Rate and Average winning odds. Look out for trends of either falling. But be aware short term trends can give false impressions.

You need to look at your system month by month to get an idea of how it performs and always create a graph. There is nothing like a visual display to show you how a system has performed.


Watch out for the “One big winner trap”. You often find a collection of data looks really profitable only to find it is actually just one or two big winners that actually created all the profit.


Finally please remember this…

I am a big believer in betting systems but I also realise that the biggest flaw with them is that you are using the past to predict the future.

The big advantage of creating your own systems is that you can tailor them to suit your own style of betting and instead of creating one. You can create many “nano” type systems that look at one particular type of racing.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
“The Nerd”

Find out more about the Greyhorse Bot at http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection courtesy of http://bookiesenemyno1.com

7.20 Hamilton Bi Focal 3/1 generally

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