Tag Archives: nose

Create your own speed ratings

Over the last few years I have created a number of different ratings for our own use and clients but these have all be form related.

So I guess it was only a matter of time before the question of speed ratings came up.

Some people argue that speed is the only real way to judge a horses chance of winning a race…

But as with all things racing, it is never quite that simple.

Speed of course is related to distance.

It is the time it took the horse to run the race divided by the distance that gives us the speed at which the horse travelled.

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Profitable Yarmouth Trainers

I guess there are a lot of race courses that are out on a limb, as it were, geographically.

Yarmouth is local to me and I know what a pain it is to travel there from anywhere else in the country. I also remember years ago there was a system doing the rounds based on betting the runners of Newmarket based trainers.

The theory being that the big HQ yards would try out their hotshots at Yarmouth because it is relatively local to them.

So this morning I thought I'd run a report on top performing trainers at Yarmouth and see what I come up with.

Amazingly there is a trainer with a 40% strike rate (Ed Walker) at Yarmouth from all runs and another with a 39% strike rate (Mrs L Wadham).

Profitable Yarmouth Trainers

Below I have listed all the trainers with a 20% or higher strike rate, who have had more than 10 runners at Yarmouth.

Baker, George
Bravery, G C
Burke, Mrs K
Carson, Anthony
Cecil, H R A (Lady Cecil!)
Cumani, L M
Fahey, R A
Haggas, W J
Hannon, R
Haynes, A B
Hutchinson, Alison
McBride, P J
Meehan, B J
Mohammed, Ismail
Noseda, J
Powell, B G
Varian, Roger
Wadham, Mrs L
Walker, Ed
Wall, C F
Williams, Ian

Following these trainers at Yarmouth betting all horses they send would have returned a whopping 51% Return on Investment at SP over the last 3 1/2 years.

Today the following runners are trained by a trainer from our high strike rate list above…

5.50 Orlando Rogue
6.50 Censorious (trained by Ed Walker), Hamble & Sermarel
7.20 Venus Marina
7.50 Peacemaker
8.20 Piemans Girl, Roring Samson
8.50 Vodka Chaser

Tongue Tie Horse Racing System

Before I get to today's research I should mention that Ross Turner is giving away some systems today, that you might want to go and get before you read on – Click Here.

There are a number of tools available to the race horse trainer to help his charge perform at it's best.

But generally when a horse uses this extra help it is considered a negative factor and the results show this to be the case.

The overall numbers for horses wearing a tongue tie for the first time are pretty bleak.

From over 19,000 qualifiers there have been just 1200 winners and the strike rate is 6.48% and the return on investment is a minus 43%.

Horses to lay maybe?

But I guess there are two types of trainers.

Those that are clutching at straws and who will try anything to get a better performance out of their slow horse.

And those that can correctly diagnose a tongue problem and only use them when they know it will make a difference.

Tongue Tie Horse Racing System

What I've done is to create a system in Horseracebase that selects horses that are wearing a tongue tie for the first time who are trained by a trainer who historically has had a greater than 10% strike rate with first time tongue ties and have a greater than 10% ROI with the same.

And who have had more than 25 qualifiers previously.

The historic results are…

Runs = 541
Wins = 77
Strike Rate = 14.23%
Profit at iSP = 268.46
Return on Investment = 49.62%

So I don't know if this will stand up going forward, but I will track it for a few months before I decide whether to invest in the selections.

Here are the rules I have…

Tongue Tie Horse Racing  System Rules

Today's Selection

2.40 Kempton Divine Rule – eachway bet – 12/1 Bet Victor

Winning Handicap Debutants

We've had a lot of success with our lay systems and it is my view that steady and long term profit is easier to come by with laying systems.

The strike rates are higher and we've been able to find an advantage.

But backing winners is more fun and it would be nice to start building up our portfolio of winning systems.

So this weekend I've been thinking about where we should look for winners and what I realised is that the lay systems we have look at a particular angle (debutants & handicap debutants) and then focus on the trainers that perform badly with that type of horse.

So it occurred to me that the obvious thing to do is to look at the trainers that perform well with these types.

So I looked at trainers that are profitable with their horses making their handicap debut.

The headline results are…

Bets = 2008
Wins = 329
Strike Rate = 16%
Profit = 576.02
Return on Investment = 28.69%

These results are for 2010 to date.

Also keep in mind that this is profit to starting prices so we can expect a bit more at Betfair prices.

The profit from this looks good but the strike rate is low at just 16% so although profitable the losing runs can be long.

The rules are…

Horses having their first run in a Handicap
Aged 3 – 10
Horse sex = male
Trainer is one of the following

Balding, A M Barron, T D
Beckett, R M Boyle, J R
Brittain, C E Channon, M R
Charlton, R Cole, P F I
Cumani, L M Daly, H D
Dartnall, V R A Deegan, P D
Dobbin, Mrs R Dunlop, E A L
Dunlop, J L Fanshawe, J R
Flynn, Patrick J George, T R
Gosden, J H M Halford, M
Hannon, R Harrington, Mrs John
Henderson, N J Hills, B W
Hills, J W Jefferson, J M
Lyons, G M Mann, C J
Murphy, Ferdy Murphy, John Joseph
Noseda, J OGrady, E J
Oliver, Andrew OMeara, D
Osborne, J A Perrett, Mrs A J
Powell, B G Suroor, Saeed Bin
Tizzard, C L Twiston-Davies, N A
Wade, J Williams, S C

There are no qualifiers today.

Lay Handicap

14:25:00 Plumpton 5 The Informant

Today's Selection

1.35 Kempton Reverb – eachway bet – 5/1 Bet 365, Paddy Power, Bet Victor

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