Tag Archives: notice

Create your own speed ratings

Over the last few years I have created a number of different ratings for our own use and clients but these have all be form related.

So I guess it was only a matter of time before the question of speed ratings came up.

Some people argue that speed is the only real way to judge a horses chance of winning a race…

But as with all things racing, it is never quite that simple.

Speed of course is related to distance.

It is the time it took the horse to run the race divided by the distance that gives us the speed at which the horse travelled.

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Place Ratings

Today we have our regular Wednesday column from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

Using ratings to find selections to place

I was never really interested in the place market on Betfair until recently.
But while working on a new ratings system I noticed a trend that got my attention.

Lately I have got very interested in high strike rate systems that normally select runners that are ranked 1st to 3rd in the betting.

Admittedly these are not the easiest systems to make money with but they can be a little more interesting to follow than your average “One a day” wait for a winner type system.

I am not knocking this type of system as I run many of them myself. I am just saying that sometimes it’s nice to have a few more selections that seem to win very often.

Over the last year or so I have been creating quite a few rating figures based on different ideas and I have shared some of these with Grey Horse Bot users.

The idea of creating any ratings is to help you identify potential winners but I think “help” is the key word…

…They can be useful in helping you to narrow down the field and letting you concentrate on just a few selections in each race.

In my last couple of articles I have mentioned that I was concentrating on the top 3 in the betting as ranked by the BSP prices early in the morning and I wanted to carry on with that idea.

I tend to try and make it a little easier on myself like sticking to “Handicap” races only as I have in this case.

As a programmer with quite a large database of results and information to use I am lucky in the sense that I can come up with ideas and then test them quite quickly.

But you should never forget the fact that humans are very good at noticing patterns.

I make sure I spend a great deal of time just looking at my ratings within the context of a lot of other racing information, just to see if I notice something that I may not have seen just by looking at individual numbers.

And this is what I was doing while looking at my latest ratings.

It appeared that the selections that I had been highlighting (I use yellow normally) to show me strong selections (although were not winning all the time) did appear to place.

Of course nothing is ever that simple and the next thing was to discover if I could come up with a way of identifying enough winning selections to make money.
And that’s where I am at the moment.

I have a list of daily selections and I have to decide which ones I am going to place.

With a couple of rules I am able to either discount the race entirely or select just one runner to follow.

If you would like to see the daily selections and the ideas I have come up with then pop over here for a look. Click Here

You can look back to the beginning of this month at the moment to see if you can find anything yourself.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

The Grey Horse Bot

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

12:35:00 Fairyhouse Digeanta – eachway bet 6/1 Bet Victor, Bet 365

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Free National Hunt System

Thanks for your comments on yesterday's article I have more on the Willie Mullins runners today.

Willie Mullins

The first question asked in the comments was what are the returns if we only back the runners that carry the top jockeys at the most profitable tracks?

Well the answer is that you get a reduction in bets down to just 56 since January 1st 2013 but that you get a return on investment of a healthy 53%, so that's good.

But what I notice when I look at the performance at the various tracks when Ruby or Paul ride is that a lot more tracks move into the profitable side of the table.

And that if we add in those other tracks where a profit has been made then we can get the number of bets up over 200.

In fact we get 229 runs, 109 wins, 64.93 profit and 28.35% Return on Investment.

By the way most of the profit comes from Paul Townend, because when Ruby rides the horse is always overbet and the price starts much shorter 🙁

Anyway here's what we have now (results are from 1st January 2013 to yesterday)

National Hunt, Hurdle Races in Ireland at one of the following courses

Ballinrobe, Fairyhouse, Galway, Leopardstown, Limerick, Naas, Navan, Punchestown,
Sligo, Thurles, Tipperary or Wexford

Horse Trained by Willie Mullins

Horse ridden by Ruby Walsh or Paul Townend

Postion in market equals 1 to 4

Runs = 229
Wins = 109
Strike Rate = 47.6%
Profit at iSP = 64.93
Return on Investment = 28.35%

Today's Selection

6.40 Wolverhampton Deebaj – win bet 11/10 Paddy Power

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Football and Racing

Today we have a football acca and an interesting observation from Peter Hawkeye that might find us some winners at Chester.

First don't forget to make your Sky Super 6 entry for an absolutely free chance to win a quarter million pounds.

https://dailypunt.com/super6

We've got a football perm from The Alternative Punters Syndicate again, these bets havent hit form yet, but last year we had a fair few collections around the £100 mark from £1 per bet stakes.

TAPS has been successfully tipping since 1996 and you can trial their racing and sports selections for free here https://dailypunt.com/taps

Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways'
(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)
MAN CITY
NORWICH
CELTIC
MORTON
BERWICK

The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 5 Aways' are available with…
VCBet

Peter Hawkeye

You can trial Peter's tipping service for a full month for just £7.99 here https://dailypunt.com/hawkeye

I always find it interesting when Irish trainers make the trip over to the UK mainland for certain middle of the road kind of meetings and with horses that seem not to have been in the best form over in Ireland.

Today I noticed that John Patrick Shanahan has a few runners at Chester, a course he has done well at before.

So it may pay to take a close look at those runners and hopefully one or two can pop up at decent prices.

The entries he has are…

1:55 Fragile Earth
2:30 Bethany Bay – 14/1 Bet 365
3:05 Maid Of The Glens – 25/1 Bet 365
3:40 Dolce N Karama
5:25 Drummore Road – 6/1 Bet Victor

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