Tag Archives: novice handicap

Football and Racing Tips

I had a bet last night for today's Cheltenham meeting that demonstrates how far you can beat the market by following tipsters who do their own race assessments rather than waiting for markets to form and letting those markets influence their decisions.

At 5pm yesterday the Racing consultants sent their members a note telling them to get on a horse that was available at 8/1 and that on their assessment should be much shorter.

I had my little tenner on with Bet 365 and now the horse is 5/1 with Bet 365 and best priced 11/2.

This horse might lose, but to me it will be remembered as a good bet whether it wins or loses because it is my strong opinion that you should judge your bets by how much you beat starting price not by whether they win or lose.

This might sound crazy to some readers. But others will know that if you keep beating starting price by big margins that the profits will take care of themselves.

I'm going to give you the bet and the full assessment in a minute, but first I'd like to recommend that whether it wins or loses that if you are serious about winning that you join the Racing Consultants service.

These guys send out bets like this one on a regular basis and they beat the market.

http://racingconsultants.co.uk

By the way they sent another one at 5.20, but I'm not allowed to give that one, but if you join them you can get immediate access.

Here's the race assessment and bet…

2.25 FREEBETS.COM TROPHY CHASE (2M5F)

“Little Jon impressed me enough as a hurdler last year despite his build and background suggesting he’d be much better over fences, and he proved the point at the first time of asking at Newton Abbot in October, giving weight and a beating to the Paul Nicholls-trained Solar Impulse.

That preceded a trio of runs in higher company here, and the bottom line is that the long-striding son of Pasternak hasn’t beaten another rival.

That said, he actually ran a cracker when a close third over 2m in November, and has crashed out when leading on his next two starts.

Despite those aberrations, he appeals as a pretty sound jumper, if inclined to take the occasional fence (or indeed wing) on.

The upside of his failures is that he’s not revealed the full extent of his ability, and therefore the handicapper hasn’t been as severe as he might have been, accepting that an opening mark of 140 is no gimme.

Main opposition comes primarily in the shape of Easter Day for Paul Nicholls, and he can’t be ruled out of calculations, for all his odds will be skinny enough.

More interesting at the forecast prices is Annacotty, who was second in the novice handicap on this card last year. He was another who couldn’t cope with the demands of the Hennessy first time out, but he’s reportedly been perked up by a spell hunting, and also has cheekpieces fitted, so should have no excuses.

He was a Grade 1 winner last year, and that fact shouldn’t be overlooked.

2.25 Chel – 2pts win Little Jon @ 8/1 (Bet365)”

As mentioned above current best price is 11/2 with Skybet, Bet Victor, Paddy Power

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Nick Hardman Free Tips

A bright Friday morning brings with it the joy of six tips from the excellent Nick Hardman of the Betting School Insiders Club

We have some decent racing today with the meetings at Doncaster and Huntingdon standing out by some way. I have gone through the cards and picked out some horses with strong chances as well as picking out a couple of bigger priced each-way runners.

John Ferguson is 4-11 with his hurdlers at Doncaster in non-handicap races in the last 3 years for a level stakes profit of £9.29. He runs Buckwheat in the novice hurdle race at 1.05pm and champ AP McCoy is booked to ride.

Nicky Henderson’s Days Of Heaven rates a big danger after showing much improved form in a first time hood when scoring at Ludlow (hood fitted again here). With that in mind there are options for the forecast with these two likely to be a lot better than the rest.

Steel Summit’s winning sequence must come to an end at some point but the manner of his latest victory and the fact he is 10lbs well-in at the weights make him one of the strongest bets on the card in the 2.50pm.

Nicky Henderson has a good chance of taking the final race on the Doncaster card with Clondaw Banker in the maiden hurdle. His second behind Jolly’s Cracked it at Ascot back in November is smart form and he ran that same rival to within a length next time out. A reproduction of either of those efforts should be enough to win this.

It’s not often a horse with form figures 8696 would interest me but you should always put those figures into the context of the race the horse is running in.

In this case the race is a novice handicap hurdle and a quick look at the rest of the runners reveal they too have form figures that look like the numbers round from Countdown.

The horse in question is Haleo and he runs in the 1.40pm today at Doncaster.

What drew my eye to him originally is that he is rated 97 in a race where the top rated horses are rated 99.

However, he gets a hefty 13lbs weight-for-age allowance from those two horses.

He ran well for a long way on his last start before fading two from home to finish 6th, beaten 10 lengths in total. He is the 20/1 outsider of the field here but I think that allowance will see him finish closer than market expectations.

Over at Huntingdon we have a similar scenario in the 4.05pm handicap hurdle that closes the card. Cyclop is joint-top rated with Harry Hunt on an official rating of 120.

However, the 4yo Cyclop gets 11lbs from his 8yo rival. Also in his favour is the booking of Sam Twiston-Davies and he also has a C&D win to his name. Up 6lbs for that latest win he might still have a bit of improvement in him.

The best race on the Huntingdon card is the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Qualifier and top rated Aubusson is sure to prove popular dropping back into a handicap.

His latest effort saw him finish 3rd in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle. Prior to that, he won the Grade 3 Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock to earn his current rating of 153.

He has to give 11lbs away here although Lizzie Kelly’s claim will off-set 7lbs of that.

However, this is a hot race with David Pipe’s Knight Of Noir also holding strong claims along with Dolatulo and Zeroshadesofgrey.

But the one really interesting runner is Ely Brown. He defied an absence of 198 days to win a Pertemps Qualifier at Ascot in 2012 off a mark of 125 and went on to finish 6th in the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham festival.

He defied an absence of 206 days to win the same Qualifier again in 2013 off a mark of 135 before being sent novice chasing where he won a Grade 2 on his second start.

He has not been seen in almost a year but it is interesting he goes back over hurdles and is racing here off a mark of 139.

Charlie Deutsch takes off 5lbs so that puts Ely Brown 1lb below his last winning hurdles mark.

He has won first time out in the last 2 seasons. This would be some training feat were he to take this and it will be interesting to see how he goes.

The negatives are that he is returning from injury (as opposed to a seasonal break) and word is he is being aimed at a tilt at the Grand National so this may just be a pipe-opener.

That said you often see Grand National horses running at the Cheltenham festival in the Pertemps Final.

My interest is perked just enough to have a little each-way @12/1.

Doncaster 1.05pm Buckwheat tweet this tip
Doncaster 1.40pm Haleo @20/1 (e/w) tweet this tip
Doncaster 2.50pm Steel Summit @6/4 tweet this tip
Doncaster 3.50pm Clondaw Banker tweet this tip
Huntingdon 3.05pm Ely Brown @12/1 (e/w) tweet this tip
Huntingdon 4.05pm Cyclop @9/2 tweet this tip

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Fit and Fancied Done For You!

On the last day of my guest spot here, I just want to sum up what's been said.

Firstly, I think we have come accross a phenomena, a relatively new trend, which the general betting public and the bookies have yet to catch onto. This is the growing ability of trainers to recuperate their horses in time for a winning run within a short period of time.

This is probably because of advances pioneered by other trainers, Martin Pipe in particular, such as swimming facilites, physio, all weather gallops, etc, and other things I wouldn't pretend to understand as i have no experience of training horses.

This is just my educated guess. All i know is an awful lot more try and an awful lot more succeed these days, and that is what is important for us from a betting point of view.

I have shown you how we devised two systems, one for the jumps, Fit and Fancied Jumpers, and another for the all-weather, The All Weather System. Both of these use, as their basis, knowledge of this relatively new phenomena.

The interesting thing about the Fit and Fancied Jumpers system is that it does so much better in hurdle races with one outstanding exception – handicap chases. As I have openly acknowledged, I am no horse expert. My forte is stats and what I have been able to learn about probability. But, and again this is an educated guess, I think 2 miles over fences must take more out of a horse than the same over hurdles and therefore a longer recovery time is necessary. In which case, how do we explain the success with the handicap chasers?

My theory, as I said in the ebook, is that these are the type of races where trainers are trying to land a gamble and therefore maybe the horse wasn't given too hard a race the time before.

If it won, maybe it won in a grade well below what it is capable of winning in. In short, it didnt have too hard a race last time and therefore didn't need much time to get over its exertions.

This may explain why the system doesn't do as well with horses in NOVICE handicap chases. Horses running in these are not so experienced and may take more out of themselves than is necessary by running too keen, jumping too extravagantly etc.

The All Weather System is completely straightforward and gave us 5/1 SP winner, SCRIBE, yesterday.

Now, the question is: having gained this knowledge, what are you going to do with it?

I am afraid that, in all likelihood, the answer for many readers is, nothing.

A few disciplined souls will be able to ignore life's distractions and will scour the Racing post each night, (the info for both systems is online by 6.30 – 7 each night), for the system selections.

They will be able to back the selections at early prices on the exchanges or at Best Odds Guaranteed, (BOG) the next morning – thus gaining a further advantage. But the vast majority will not put this new knowledge to use whilst others will try to use it but not always come up with the correct selections.

This series of articles has aroused some interest and a few people have emailed us to point out that they may not have the time or the discipline to look for the selections themselves.

Also there has been some inevitable mistakes in the selection process so that some have thanked us for winners that weren't selections, while others have complained about losers that weren't selections!

This has led some to ask whether we have considered providing an email service. The answer is, we already do.

We send an email each night – whether there are selections or not – between 7 – 8. Where there are selections you get the race and the name of the horse and we recommend backing them all at BOG.

The cost is £7.95 per month for each system, fully inclusive, ie, no taxes on top.

However, we have been persuaded by Dave and the Daily Punt team to make a special one-off offer to Daily Punt readers, for today only, of an email service for BOTH systems for just £12.95 per month.

You will surely pay for that out of the ability to get on at early prices. Click Here.

Those who take advantage of this one day offer will also receive a FREE copy of our ebook BACK TO THE FUTURE, which shows you how to back your selections in a novel way which changes around half your losers into non runners!

If you are interested in this option click here to secure your place now.

I hope you have enjoyed this series and will put what you have learned to good use.

Good luck in your future betting.

All the best,
John Cutts

Today's Selection

Newcastle 3.35 Lady of Verona – each way bet – 8/1 Bet 365 will hill paddy power

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