Novice hurdle Archives • Daily Punt

Racing Tips – Nick Hardman

Posted on February 13, 2015 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Today we have my favourite column of the week, the Nick Hardman – Betting Insiders column.

Before I hand you over to Nick just to mention that there is a qualifier from the Tongue Tie system, which we are paper trading currently and that's 16:15 Sandown Paddy The Stout.

If you enjoy Nick's columns as much as I do then do check out the Betting School Insiders Club where you can enjoy more of his wisdom.

Here's Nick…

We have jumps racing at Fakenham and Sandown today and Nicky Henderson’s runners might be worth a second look in the betting markets given his record at both tracks.

Since January 2011 he has sent 30 runners to Fakenham and 13 have won. However, backing each of those runners to level stakes would have resulted in a very small loss at SP.

Dig a little deeper and we find that his Fakenham runners are 1-6 in chases, 8-19 in hurdles races and 4-5 in bumper races.

Taking a closer look at the hurdlers we find they are 5-10 in novice races, 2-5 in maiden races and 1-4 in handicaps.

He has the following entries at the time of writing:

1.45 Medieval Chapel (Beginners’ Chase)
3.25pm Clean Sheet (Novices’ Hurdle)
4.35pm Clemency (Mares’ NH Flat Race)

At Sandown, Nicky Henderson has had 35 winners from 145 runners in the last 5 years at a strike rate of 24% and shows a level stakes profit of £36.07.

His hurdlers are 26-95 (27% strike rate) and show a profit of £47.72.

He has won with 8 of his last 18 hurdlers at the course for a profit of £27.69.

The Barry Geraghty/ Nicky Henderson partnership has teamed up for 17 hurdle winners at Sandown from 42 runners at an impressive strike rate of 41% and a level stakes profit of £41.12.

Nicky Henderson has the following entries at Sandown today:

2.30pm Broxbourne (Geraghty) & Hel Tara (Mares’ Novice Hurdle)

One of the feature races of the weekend is the Grand National Trial at Haydock.

Last Friday our trends analysis identified Violet Dancer as a likely candidate for the Betfair Hurdle and I am hoping for more of the same this weekend.

The key trends are a win over 3m or further, aged 9yo – 11yo, not raced in the last 31 days, raced over 3m 5f or further, a top two finish LTO and trained by Paul Nicholls, Lucinda Russell or Venetia Williams.

In addition, only 3 winners since 1997 have carried more than 11st to victory on soft or heavy going.

There is one horse who ticks all the trends boxes apart from the trainer box and that is Harry The Viking.

He has not won since his novice days from where he went on to finish runner-up to Teaforthree in the National Hunt Chase at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival.

That run earned him a rating of 143 and he competed in the Scottish National, The Hennessy and the Grand National after that.

However, he failed to build on that early promise and his mark plummeted to 122.

Off that mark he ran his best race in a long time when runner-up to Lie Forrit last time out when 2lbs out of the handicap. He has been raised just 2lbs for that effort.

Haydock Grand National Trial – Harry The Viking @20/1 (e/w)

At that price he would be the biggest winner since Rambling Minster @18/1 in 2009 but Rigadin De Beauchene won this @16/1 last year and 8 of the last 12 winners returned SPs of 10/1 or higher.

Filed Under: Tips
... ..., 2lbs, analysis, backing, Barry Geraghty, best race, Betfair, Betfair Hurdle, betting, Betting Insiders, Betting Insiders column, betting markets, Betting School, Betting School Insiders, box, boxes, build, Cheltenham, Cheltenham Festival, clean sheet, closer look, Club, column, course, e/w, early promise, entries, Fakenham runners, favourite, feature, feature races, festival, finish LTO, Flat, Friday, Geraghty/ Nicky Henderson, GOING, Grand National, Grand National Trial, hand, handicaps, Harry The Viking, Haydock, Haydock Grand National, heavy, heavy going, Henderson’s runners, Hennessy, horse, hurdle, Hurdlers, hurdles, Hurdles races, impressive strike rate, Insiders Club, jumps, key trends, level stakes, level stakes profit, long time, look, loss, LTO, Lucinda Russell, maiden, maiden races, mark, markets, mention, National Hunt, NATIONAL HUNT CHASE, NH Flat Race, Nicholls, Nick, Nick Hardman, Nicky Henderson, Novice hurdle, Paddy, paper, Paper trading, Paul Nicholls, price, profit, qualifier, race, races, racing, rating, Rigadin De Beauchene, run, runner, runner-up, runners, Sandown, Sandown Paddy, school, School Insiders Club, small loss, Soft, SP, stakes, strike rate, Teaforthree, time, Tongue, tongue tie, tracks, trading, trainer, Trends, trends analysis, trial, Venetia Williams, victory, Violet Dancer, weekend, win, winner, winners, wisdom, Won, worth, |Winners |Strike Rate

Nick Hardman Free Tips

Posted on January 23, 2015 by Dave French • 0 Comments

A bright Friday morning brings with it the joy of six tips from the excellent Nick Hardman of the Betting School Insiders Club…

We have some decent racing today with the meetings at Doncaster and Huntingdon standing out by some way. I have gone through the cards and picked out some horses with strong chances as well as picking out a couple of bigger priced each-way runners.

John Ferguson is 4-11 with his hurdlers at Doncaster in non-handicap races in the last 3 years for a level stakes profit of £9.29. He runs Buckwheat in the novice hurdle race at 1.05pm and champ AP McCoy is booked to ride.

Nicky Henderson’s Days Of Heaven rates a big danger after showing much improved form in a first time hood when scoring at Ludlow (hood fitted again here). With that in mind there are options for the forecast with these two likely to be a lot better than the rest.

Steel Summit’s winning sequence must come to an end at some point but the manner of his latest victory and the fact he is 10lbs well-in at the weights make him one of the strongest bets on the card in the 2.50pm.

Nicky Henderson has a good chance of taking the final race on the Doncaster card with Clondaw Banker in the maiden hurdle. His second behind Jolly’s Cracked it at Ascot back in November is smart form and he ran that same rival to within a length next time out. A reproduction of either of those efforts should be enough to win this.

It’s not often a horse with form figures 8696 would interest me but you should always put those figures into the context of the race the horse is running in.

In this case the race is a novice handicap hurdle and a quick look at the rest of the runners reveal they too have form figures that look like the numbers round from Countdown.

The horse in question is Haleo and he runs in the 1.40pm today at Doncaster.

What drew my eye to him originally is that he is rated 97 in a race where the top rated horses are rated 99.

However, he gets a hefty 13lbs weight-for-age allowance from those two horses.

He ran well for a long way on his last start before fading two from home to finish 6th, beaten 10 lengths in total. He is the 20/1 outsider of the field here but I think that allowance will see him finish closer than market expectations.

Over at Huntingdon we have a similar scenario in the 4.05pm handicap hurdle that closes the card. Cyclop is joint-top rated with Harry Hunt on an official rating of 120.

However, the 4yo Cyclop gets 11lbs from his 8yo rival. Also in his favour is the booking of Sam Twiston-Davies and he also has a C&D win to his name. Up 6lbs for that latest win he might still have a bit of improvement in him.

The best race on the Huntingdon card is the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Qualifier and top rated Aubusson is sure to prove popular dropping back into a handicap.

His latest effort saw him finish 3rd in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle. Prior to that, he won the Grade 3 Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock to earn his current rating of 153.

He has to give 11lbs away here although Lizzie Kelly’s claim will off-set 7lbs of that.

However, this is a hot race with David Pipe’s Knight Of Noir also holding strong claims along with Dolatulo and Zeroshadesofgrey.

But the one really interesting runner is Ely Brown. He defied an absence of 198 days to win a Pertemps Qualifier at Ascot in 2012 off a mark of 125 and went on to finish 6th in the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham festival.

He defied an absence of 206 days to win the same Qualifier again in 2013 off a mark of 135 before being sent novice chasing where he won a Grade 2 on his second start.

He has not been seen in almost a year but it is interesting he goes back over hurdles and is racing here off a mark of 139.

Charlie Deutsch takes off 5lbs so that puts Ely Brown 1lb below his last winning hurdles mark.

He has won first time out in the last 2 seasons. This would be some training feat were he to take this and it will be interesting to see how he goes.

The negatives are that he is returning from injury (as opposed to a seasonal break) and word is he is being aimed at a tilt at the Grand National so this may just be a pipe-opener.

That said you often see Grand National horses running at the Cheltenham festival in the Pertemps Final.

My interest is perked just enough to have a little each-way @12/1.

Doncaster 1.05pm Buckwheat
Doncaster 1.40pm Haleo @20/1 (e/w)
Doncaster 2.50pm Steel Summit @6/4
Doncaster 3.50pm Clondaw Banker
Huntingdon 3.05pm Ely Brown @12/1 (e/w)
Huntingdon 4.05pm Cyclop @9/2

Filed Under: Tips
*Figures, ... ..., 10lbs, 11lbs, 5lbs, 6lbs, 7lbs, 8yo, absence, age, age allowance, AP McCoy, Ascot, best race, bets, betting, Betting School, Betting School Insiders, big danger, bit, C&D, card, cards, case, chance, chances, Cheltenham, Cheltenham Festival, claim, Club, couple, Danger, David, Dolatulo, Doncaster, Doncaster card, e/w, end, excellent Nick Hardman, eye, fact, Favour, feat, festival, field, Final, Fixed Brush Hurdle, form, form figures, Friday, good chance, grade, Grand National, Grand National horses, Handicap Hurdle, handicap races, Haydock, home, horse, horses, hurdle, Hurdlers, hurdles, improved form, Insiders Club, interesting runner, latest win, lengths, level stakes, level stakes profit, Long Walk Hurdle, long way, look, Ludlow, maiden, Maiden hurdle, mark, market, market expectations, meetings, mind, morning, negatives, Nick, Nick Hardman, Nicky Henderson, novice handicap, Novice hurdle, numbers, official rating, point, profit, qualifier, question, quick look, race, races, racing, rating, rest, rival, runner, runners, running, runs, SAW, scenario, school, School Insiders Club, Scoring, seasonal break, seasons, set, stakes, start, strong claims, tilt, time, tips, Twiston-Davies, victory, way, weight, weights, win, Won, word, |Winners |Strike Rate

Nick Hardman Tips

Posted on January 9, 2015 by Dave French • 4 Comments

Anybody that followed our Friday Nick Hardman columns in 2014 will have made plenty of profit from the selections posted.

2015 has already got off to a great start and today Nick has selections at Huntingdon and Doncaster and selections for tomorrows Lanzarote…

=====
We had a great start to 2015 with 3 winners from our 5 AW selections in addition to L’Ami Serge winning comfortably and Triolo D’Alene grabbing some place money @16/1 under a brilliant ride by Barry Geraghty on Saturday.

This week we turn our attention to the Friday cards at Huntingdon and Doncaster and we have a couple of selections for the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton on Saturday.

Nicky Henderson has a 44% strike rate at Huntingdon in the last 2 years. In that time he has sent out 15 winners from 34 runners. 9 of those winners were in hurdles races and he is 3-4 in maiden hurdles at the course.

Today he has a couple of qualifiers who are pretty much unknown quantities.

Huntingdon 1.20pm Maestro Royale
Huntingdon 2.30pm Hel Tara

Nicky Henderson also does well at Doncaster with his hurdlers. In the last two years his hurdlers at the course are 15-37 (41% strike rate) and show a level stakes profit of £37.46.

His handicap hurdlers have a lower strike rate (31%) but tend to pop up at decent prices with his last 4 handicap hurdle winners at the course returning industry SPs of 16/1, 15/2, 8/1 and 8/1. He has a trio of hurdle runners today.

Doncaster 12.30pm Saint Charles (Maiden hurdle)
Doncaster 1.35pm Nicolas Chauvin (Novice hurdle)
Doncaster 3.15pm Earth Amber (Handicap hurdle)

The Lanzarote Hurdle is one of the feature races on Saturday and I like the look of Dawalan and Hello George who are both backable each-way at 8/1.

Dawalan represents the Henderson/ Geraghty combination.

Back in November he got to within half a length of Sign Of A Victory over 2 miles and the latter is now rated 149 over hurdles having been last seen in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Kempton.

Dawalan also had the re-opposing Kilcooley 16 lengths behind that day and that horse has gone on and franked that form (2nd to L’Ami Serge and 23 length winner at Haydock on his next two starts).

What is more significant though in the context of the Lanzarote hurdle is Dawalan’s battling victory at Ascot over 2m 4f on his last start.

That day he was outpaced and 5 lengths down three from home, but rallied gamely to get up close home to beat stable mate and 145 rated Bear’s Affair.

The extra furlong should suit and he gets a whole stone from Kilcooley who heads the weights.

Hello George ran a good race in the Ladbroke Hurdle, not beaten that far in 6th. He probably needs more of a test than the 2 miles he faced that day and he certainly gets it here.

He was tapped for toe in the Ladbroke but stayed on nicely to suggest the step up in trip may well suit.

He gets in off a light weight of 10st and that should see him competitive if he sees out the trip.

Saturday January 10th

Kempton 2.40 pm Dawalan 8/1 and Hello George 8/1 (1pt e/w ¼ odds, 4 places)

Filed Under: Tips
... ..., anybody, Ascot, attention, Aw, Barry Geraghty, beat, cards, Christmas, Christmas Hurdle, couple, course, decent prices, Doncaster, e/w, Earth Amber, extra furlong, feature, feature races, form, Friday, good race, grade, Great, great start, half, Handicap Hurdle, Haydock, heads, Hello George, Henderson/ Geraghty, Henderson/ Geraghty combination, home, horse, hurdle, Hurdlers, hurdles, Hurdles races, industry, Kempton, Ladbroke Hurdle, Lanzarote hurdle, lengths, level stakes, level stakes profit, Light, look, lower strike rate, L’Ami Serge, Maestro Royale Huntingdon, maiden, Maiden hurdle, miles, money, Nick, Nick Hardman, Nicky Henderson, Novice hurdle, odds, place, place money, places, plenty, pm, prices, profit, qualifiers, race, races, runners, Saint, Saturday, selections, Stable mate, stakes, start, starts, Step, stone, strike rate, test, time, Triolo D’Alene, trip, turn, victory, way, weight, weights, winner, winners, |Winners |Strike Rate

Trends and Tips

Posted on November 7, 2014 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Here's our regular Friday column from the excellent Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman )

Goldencents (adv 5/4) and Lady Eli (adv 13/2) got us off to a flyer last weekend, the latter putting in an awesome display of speed to win going away from the field.

We followed that up on Saturday with Aurore D’Estruval annihilating her small field. She was widely available at 11/8 before being backed into odds-on favouritism.

This week we will take a trends look at the November handicap from Doncaster and a quick preview of the Wentworth Stakes and Badger Ales Trophy. First we focus on a trainer with an impressive strike rate at Musselburgh.

The man in question is Donald McCain Jr. He has had more winners at Musselburgh over the jumps than any other trainer in the last 5 years.

His 29 winners have come from 102 runners at a strike rate of 28% and a level stakes profit of £32.25.

His handicap hurdlers at Musselburgh underperform compared to his other runners (2-29, 7% strike rate; level stakes loss -£22.75).

If we remove those runners then his stats look like this:

D. McCain Jr – chase, bumper and non-handicap hurdle runners at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014:

Runners: 73
Winners: 27
Strike Rate: 37%
Level stakes profit: £55.00

He has the following runners this Friday up at Musselburgh:

1.00pm Al Musheer (Juvenile Hurdle)
1.30pm Master Dee (Maiden Hurdle)
2.30pm Welsh Bard (Handicap Chase)
4.00pm Gingili (NH Flat)

Those stats were further boosted by 5/1 winner Roserrow on Thursday in a Novice Hurdle.

If you want to dig a little deeper, then I can tell you that D. McCain Jr is 5-22 (23% strike rate) in handicap chases, 12-33 (36%) in non-handicap hurdle races and 4-7 (57%) in NH flat races at Musselburgh since 2010.

Saturday sees a decent flat card at Doncaster with the highlight being the November handicap. I have run through the trends and we are looking for a horse rated 93 – 99 (all of the last 10 winners), aged 4yo to 6yo (7 of the last 8 winners), carrying 8st 10lbs to 9st 2lbs (all of the last 7 winners), won over 1m 4f or further and has raced in the last 60 days.

No favourite has obliged since 1995 and all of the last 7 winners were drawn in stall 9 or higher.

A top 4 finish LTO accounts for 13 of the last 17 winners and at least 4 runs that current season accounts for 16 of the last 17 winners. Putting all that together leaves us with:

Doncaster November handicap trends horses:

Esteaming @16/1 and Manhattan Swing @16/1

Elsewhere on Saturday, if the word “good” disappears from the current “good to soft” going then Jack Dexter will be in his element on a track where his form figures read 1113 on soft ground and he would be my pick in the Wentworth Stakes.

He put in his best run of the season on Champions Day (heavy ground) when 3rd behind Gordon Lord Byron and Tropics. This represents a drop in class for Tropics and Jack Dexter and they would both have to seriously misfire for one of them not to take this.

The Badger Ales Trophy looks highly competitive again this year and Standing Ovation has a great chance of retaining his crown.

He is 3-3 at Wincanton and although he went off the boil after landing this in 2013, he appeared back to his best LTO at Cheltenham when 2nd to Roalco De Farges.

Standing Ovation’s trainer David Pipe has won this race three times since 2007.

Even more impressive is Paul Nicholls who has won this 7 times since 1999. He has two entries, Benvolio and Just A Par. However, both make their seasonal reappearances here and the Nicholl’s horses have tended to need a run this season.

Lamb Or Cod represents the in-form Philip Hobbs and he loves good ground. If it stays good he will be a major player.

Alfie Spinner is closely matched on recent running with Standing Ovation and could run well at an each-way price.

On a final note, three weeks ago we gave you a couple of Godolphin microsystems for the all-weather racing at Kempton.

So far these two systems have pulled in 9.82pts profit at SP so keep an eye out for the Charlie Appleby and Saeed Bin Suroor runners at Kempton in the coming months.

All the best Nick

http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman

Filed Under: Systems
*Figures, ... ..., 10lbs, 2lbs, 6yo, accounts, all-weather, Badger Ales Trophy, best Nick http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman, betting, Betting Insiders, bin, Bin Suroor, Bin Suroor runners, card, chance, Charlie Appleby, Cheltenham, Class, column, couple, Crown, current season, current season accounts, D. McCain Jr, David, David Pipe, decent flat card, Donald McCain, Donald McCain Jr, Doncaster, each-way price, entries, excellent Nick Hardman, eye, favourite, favouritism, field, Final, final note, finish LTO, Flat, flat races, focus, following runners, form, form figures, Friday, GOING, Good ground, Gordon Lord Byron, Great, great chance, ground, handicap chase, handicap chases, Handicap Hurdle, handicap trends horses, heavy, heavy ground, highlight, horse, horses, hurdle, hurdle races, Hurdlers, impressive strike rate, in-form Philip Hobbs, Jack Dexter, jumps, Kempton, Lady, level stakes, level stakes loss, level stakes profit, look, loss, LTO, maiden, Maiden hurdle, man, master, Musselburgh, Musselburgh underperform, need, NH Flat races, Nicholls, Nick, Nick Hardman, non-handicap hurdle, note, Novice hurdle, odds, Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs, preview, price, profit, question, race, races, racing, run, runners, running, runs, Saeed Bin Suroor, Saturday, season, small field, Soft, soft ground, SP, stakes, stall, Standing Ovation, stats, strike rate, Suroor, systems, Thursday, times, track, trainer, trainer David Pipe, Trends, Trends horses, way, Weather, Weather racing, week., weekend, Welsh Bard, Wentworth Stakes, win, Wincanton, winner, winners, Won, word, |Winners |Strike Rate

Tag Archives: Novice hurdle

Racing Tips – Nick Hardman

Nick Hardman Free Tips

Nick Hardman Tips

Trends and Tips