Tag Archives: Official ratings

Nick Hardman Free Racing Tips

It's Friday and here's Nick Hardman from the Betting School Insiders Club.
=====

We had another terrific Friday last week courtesy of Nicky Henderson’s hurdlers and he rattled up a hat-trick across the cards with winners at 6/1, 4/1 and 9/4. With Chepstow abandoned and nothing making any appeal at Musselburgh, we turn out attention back to the AW and some qualifiers from the systems we are road testing over at the Betting School Insiders Club which are ticking over nicely.

There are no qualifiers from Lingfield but we have a few from the evening card at Wolverhampton below:

5.15pm Solar Deity & Linton
5.45pm Harwoods Star
6.15pm Little Lord Nelson
6.45 Go Packing Go & Sciustree

Solar Deity looks to have a good chance to get off the mark in 2015 after a string of placed efforts. He is rated 6lbs higher than his nearest rival on official ratings but is well-in under these weights. He rates a solid bet and I expect him to shorten so take the best morning price with a Best Odds Guaranteed bookmaker.

Stablemate Linton needs to recapture the form that saw him win plenty of races in Australia and compete in a pair of Listed races on the flat last year. I would be as surprised as anyone if Linton were to take this from his stablemate but he is one that may tempt the each-way backers at a price.

Harwoods Star got turned over at 4/9 on his last start but has a chance of making amends here back up in trip and with7lb claimer Aaron Jones back on board. The yard are in excellent form too so he is worth another chance.

The same trainer and jockey team up on Little Lord Nelson in the next and he also has decent chance on handicap debut. The final race will most likely see Charlie Appleby’s New Approach colt Symbolic Star go off a warm order. If he takes a chunk out of the market that could see our two qualifiers go off at an each-way price.

Sciustree is related to plenty of winners and was 6th of 12 on debut and should improve for that experience. Go Packing Go is also well related and makes her debut here.

Saturday’s feature race is the Clarence House Chase which sees the return of the mighty Sprinter Sacre. I for one will be hoping he doesn’t just win this, but wins in the manner of a horse that totally dismisses his rivals. Racing needs superstars and we want this one back. With that in mind it is a watching race and not a betting race for me.

For a selection on Saturday I have run the rule over the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock from a trends perspective.

We have a shortlist of 4 qualifiers in Vintage Star, Benbens, Amigo and Toby Lerone. Benbens had Amigo some 20 lengths behind in the Welsh National and I cannot see any reason why Amigo should turn the tables here.

Toby Lerone put in a career best last time when finishing second to Broadway Buffalo in the Tommy Whittle Chase at this venue. He is up 6lbs for that and could still be improving. That was on heavy ground too, which he will likely get again on Saturday.

Vintage Star is 4lbs lower than when runner-up in this race last year. He is also back down to his last winning mark that saw him win a Graduation Chase at Carlisle on heavy ground over 3m 1f.

He has not performed that well in 3 starts this season but he has yet to see really testing ground which he may well get on Saturday. Trainer Suzy Smith has an excellent record in the race having trained 2 winners, a runner-up and two third placed finishers since 2000.

It’s a leap of faith but I am willing to make him one of my selections from the shortlist in the hope this is a true test of stamina.

I am torn between Benbens and Toby Lerone for my second selection but I will side with Benbens as the father & son Twiston-Davies combination has been in fine form recently. In addition he was travelling as well as anything in the Welsh National until running out of gas about three flights from home. Back down in trip I think he can go well.

Saturday Haydock 3.15pm
Vintage Star e/w
Benbens e/w

The one runner who does interest me on Saturday’s cards is super-tough mare Carole’s Spirit in the Mare’s Hurdle race at Ascot.

A winner of 4 of her 5 starts her only defeat came at the hands of Highland Retreat who has gone on to be an exciting novice chaser for Harry Fry.

Against her own sex and proven over track, trip and ground I expect her to go very close.

Saturday Ascot 1.50pm
Carole’s Spirit

Good Luck
Nick Hardman
Betting School Insiders Club

Please follow and like us:

Cesarewitch Tips

Today we have our weekly look at the weekends racing action from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (https://dailypunt.com/nickhardman)

Nick has set us up with some nice winners this season and today he tries to find us the winner of the Cesarewitch to add to his tally…

Last week we highlighted in-form trainer Charlie Longsdon. He bagged us a winner that day and has followed up with another in midweek. He is still a trainer I want to keep on-side in the early part of the season and he sends a few runners to Carlisle today.

He has a decent strike rate at the track too with 6 winners from 19 runners. He has the following entries on Friday:

Charlie Longsdon Carlisle runners Friday 10/10/2014

3.10pm Drop Out Joe
3.45pm Orange Nassau
4.20pm Simply The West
5.20pm Deadly Move

Cesarewitch Tips

On to Saturday and we have the last of the big handicaps in the Cesarewitch.

Having already landed the Ebor and Cambridgeshire it is a tall order to land the hat-trick but I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t at least share my thoughts.

This race has gone to some big priced winners in recent times including winners at 66/1, 66/1 and 25/1 in the last three renewals.

Weight and official ratings do not tell us much regarding potential winners but, with the exception of Scatter Dice last year, the previous 10 winners had winning form over 2m or further.

Hurdlers have finished in the top two in 13 of the last 17 renewals. Other strong trends include a top 4 finish last time out and no more than 7 runs in the season. That helps reduce the field to 9.

One who ticks plenty of boxes is Big Easy for Philip Hobbs and the trainer knows what it take to win this having done so with Detroit City in 2006.

Big Easy looks to have solid credentials having finished runner-up in the trial race 3 weeks ago. That was his first flat run of the season and he should come on bundle for the run and he has a nice draw in stall 2.

Another who is guaranteed to stay is Chester Cup winner Suegioo. He last two runs have been over trips shorter than 2 miles and I think he will relish every yard of this trip. He was also a fine 2nd in the Northumberland Plate over 2 miles and that race is a good pointer for horses who run well in the Cesarewitch.

Another with solid prospects is Swnymor who has to turn the form around with hotpot favourite Quick Jack, but he takes him on here on much better terms (16lbs better to be exact).

My only concern is his wide draw in stall 34 but with several bookmakers paying 6 places he is still worth an each-way interest.

If you fancy taking something at a bigger price then the ultra-consistent Noble Silk, a good 4th in the Northumberland Plate, should give you a run for your money 33/1.

Nicky Henderson trained the winner of this in 2008 and Kieron Fallon rode the winner in 2012. They team up on Earth Amber @33/1 and any rain would help his cause, although he is another from our short list who has been done no favours by the draw (stall 33).

Saturday Newmarket 3.50pm

Trends horses: Big Easy @12/1 & Suegioo @16/1

Alternatives: Swnymor @16/1, Earth Amber @33/1 & Noble Silk @33/1

Please follow and like us:

Northumberland Plate Trends

Today we have another example of the kind of method that does find winning and profitable racing selections.

It's been submitted to us by Dave Renham who writes a regular column for the Racing & Football Outlook Newspaper.

Dave has also recently launched a new service that you can try for just £5 called www.horseracereport.co.uk.

Today's analysis of the Northumberland Plate comes from that service…

Northumberland Plate Ten Year Trends

There is an old saying of “A leopard does not change it’s spots”

 In racing unfortunately that saying is not true 100% of the time. Shocks do indeed occur.

I however am a firm believer that it would be foolish to continually ignore key lessons history has to teach us.

Each major race during the racing calendar is an individual and unique event. Each race tends to favour horses with certain characteristics and profiles.

One major race this weekend is the Northumberland plate

Below is my ten year trends report on this race.

I hope it is of some assistance in helping you compile your own sensible shortlist of contenders.

Dave Renham

www.HorseRaceReport.co.uk

Course – Newcastle

Distance – 2 miles

Date 29th  – June 2013

Average field size last 10 years – 19

Market Trends 

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 11 for a loss of £1.50 (ROI -13.6%).
Top three in betting: 2 wins for the top three in the betting.
Top six in betting: 4 wins for the top six in the betting.
Price: Horses priced between 14/1 and 33/1 have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.

 

LTO stats 

Days since last run: 0 wins from 24 for horses returning to the track within 10 days.
Position LTO: 2 wins for horses that won LTO (from 35 runners).
Position LTO: 7 wins for horses that finished in the first three LTO from 99 runners.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 6th or worse LTO have provided just 1 winner from 55.
LTO favourites: 3 wins for horses that were favourite LTO (from 27 runners).
LTO Top three in betting: 3 wins for horses from the top three in the betting LTO (from 78 runners).
LTO Price: Horses priced between 10/1 and 16/1 LTO have provided 6 of the last 10 winners from only 47 runners. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £54.50 (ROI +116.0%).
LTO distance: Horses that raced over 1m 7f or less LTO have provided just 2 winners from 95 for a loss of £54.00 (ROI -56.8%); horses that raced over 2m 2f or more LTO have provided 5 winners from 50 for a profit of £25.50 (ROI +51%).

 

Age 

Age

Wins

Runners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

3

0

1

0.0

-£1.00

-100.0

4

4

64

6.3

+£13.00

+20.3

5

0

44

0.0

-£44.00

-100.0

6

4

41

9.8

+£9.50

+23.2

7+

2

38

5.3

+£11.00

+28.9

 

Official ratings (OR) 

OR band

Wins

Runners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

90 and below

4

70

5.7

+£39.00

+55.7

91-96

5

67

7.5

-£3.00

-4.5

97 and above

1

51

2.0

-£47.50

-93.1

 

 Draw

Draws

Wins

Runners

SR%

1-6

4

60

6.7

7-12

2

60

3.3

13+

4

68

5.9

 

 Breeding

Breeding

Wins

Runners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

FR

1

6

16.7

-£2.50

-41.7

GB

3

87

3.4

-£29.00

-33.3

GER

1

1

100.0

+£14.00

+1400.0

IRE

4

78

5.1

+£11.00

+14.1

USA

1

14

7.1

-£3.00

-21.4

Other countries

0

2

0.0

-£2.00

-100.0

 

Class change 

Class change

Wins

Runners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Down in class

1

29

3.4

-£14.00

-48.3

Same class

7

100

7.0

+£20.50

+20.5

Up in class

2

58

3.4

-£17.00

-29.3

 

Trainer stats 

Trainers: 2 wins from 3 runners for Donald McCain.

 

General stats

Headgear (visor, cheekpieces, blinkers, etc): 1 win from 35.
Claiming jockeys: 3 wins from 23.
Recent win: 6 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last three starts from 92 runners. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £11.50 (ROI +12.5%).
Handicap runs: Horses who have had 5 or less handicap runs have provided 0 winners from 43 runners.
Career  wins: Horses with 2 or fewer career wins have provided just 1 winner from 55 runners for a loss of £40.00 (ROI -72.7%).

 

Conclusion – A few interesting angles for this race. Firstly higher rated runners have struggled with those rated 94 and above managing just 1 win from 79; horses rated 85 to 93 have provided 9 winners from 96. Horses stepping up in trip have struggled whereas horses dropping 2 furlongs or more in trip have performed well above the average. The top three in the betting have performed well below the norm despite a winning favourite last year, while the 14/1 to 33/1 price bracket has actually yielded a 10 year profit if backing all runners from that band. LTO market factors have also favoured slightly higher prices with the LTO price bracket of 10/1 to 16/1 doing especially well. Age wise there is no clear pattern.

Dave Renham

Dave Renham writes a regular horse racing research column for the Racing & Football Outlook Newspaper. He also runs www.HorseRaceReport.co.uk which offers both free and  a  low cost paid for options to people interested in researched racing advice.

Today's Selection

2:30:00 Doncaster 5 Inyordreams – each way bet – 9/1 Will Hill, Bet Victor

Please follow and like us:

Queen Mother Chase 10/1

Today we have more Road to Cheltenham thoughts from Mark Foley.

Sprinter Sacre is a silly price for the Queen Mother but this has created a decent EW market. Last year's winner Finian's Rainbow looks too big at 10/1.

He proved his undoubted class by following up his success here last year with a comprehensive win in the Melling. The failure for the only run this season can be attributed to the heavy ground, which he appeared to hate and ground permitting will reappear on Saturday at Ascot.

I've already covered the age aspect in the Champion hurdle, but it is not so prevalent in the shorter chases. Whereas 8 and 9 yo runners have struggled in the Champion Hurdle in recent years the last three renewals of the Queen mother have been won by a 9yo and you have to go all the way back to 2005 and the great Moscow Flyer to find a winner aged older than 9yo.

Since the Moscow Flyers win 16 runners aged 10 or older have taken part in the race and as all 16 were beaten it would appear than runners older than 9 struggle, but that's not necessarily true as just under half of them actually made the frame.

When you consider that half of the 16 older runners were no hopers who went off at 33/1 or bigger and that all but 2 of the 8 runners who went off at 20/1 or shorter actually made the frame, then it paints a completely different picture.

201 2 Big Zeb (IRE) 13/2 3rd/8
2012 Gauvain (GER) 20/1 4th/8
2012 Sizing Europe (IRE) 4/5 2nd/8
2011 Captain Cee Bee (IRE) 14/1 3rd/11
2011 Big Zeb (IRE) 3/1 2nd/11
2009 Well Chief (GER) 12/1 2nd/12
2006 Fota Island (IRE) 4/1 2nd/12
2006 Moscow Flyer (IRE) 5/1 5th/12

All but 2 of those older 8 runners were 10 yos and all but one of them made the frame.

Finian’s Rainbow is a 10 yo and what’s more he is a very lightly raced 10yo. All 5 of the 10yo horses that made the frame in the Queen Mother were lightly race and had less than 25 career runs to their name.

Finian’s Rainbow raced in only one PTP and never raced under rules until he was a 6yo, in total he has had 16 career races, which is incredibly few for a 10yo Chaser.

He has won 10 of his 15 races under rules and won 3 of his 5 races in Grade 1’s and was runner up in the other two races in the highest grade, as a lightly raced horse he has tended to go under the public radar, but make no mistake we are talking about a very classy chaser.

Flemenstar has all but been ruled out and Simonsig may not run in this race. Sprinter Sacre has been hugely impressive so far, but he has never met horses as classy as Sizing Europe or Finian’s Rainbow, who are both rated in the 170’s and has only ever run against two runners rated higher than 160 and that was on Soft and Heavy ground.

This will be a different proposition and run at a faster pace than anything he has encountered before. Although Sprinter Sacre may officially be the highest rated horse in training, which goes someway to explaining his ridiculously short price, bear in mind that only one of the past 5 renewals of the Queen mother have been won by a horse that was from the top two of the official ratings.

Finian’s rainbow looks like a solid EW bet to me if Nicky Henderson can get him to the Festival in peak condition.

Finians Rainbow 10/1 Each Way Paddy Power

All the best Mark Foley
www.trainertrends.co.uk

Today's Selection

Kelso 3.40 Funky Munky – each way – 6/1 Bet365 Paddy Power

Please follow and like us:
Facebook
Twitter
RSS
Follow by Email
Google+
https://dailypunt.com/tag/official-ratings/">

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close