Tag Archives: olds

Football and Racing Tips

Today we have a bet at Wolverhampton from Peter Hawkeye, a football perm form The alternative Punters Syndicate and a reminder of Nick's selections for Champions Day.

First up is Peter Hawkeye.

We have a special offer running for Daily Punt readers who can join Hawkeye Tips for just £7.99 – Click Here http://dailypunt.com/hawkeye

I do like to look out for improving 3 year olds when they are taking on older horses at this time of the season. Tonight at Wolverhampton Ragged Robin in the 7.45 is doing just that.

He has improved no end over the summer, to some that seemed to have come to an end last time out. But that was a tough race against other 3 year olds and back getting lumps of weight tonight from the majority of the filed I expect a further resumption of improvement at 15’2.

Next up is the TAPS weekend football perm, this is one of four perms that TAPS member get every week in addition to their daily racing tips.

The TAPS offer is a totally free one month trial, click here http://dailypunt.com/taps

Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways'
(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)
CHELSEA
LIVERPOOL
WOLVES
SHEFF UTD
HIBERNIAN

The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 5 Aways' are available with…
Ladbrokes

Finally Nick from Betting Insiders yesterday suggested that if the going stays Heavy at Ascot that there may be some outsiders winning against the form book.

You can read the full write up here but to recap here are the selections.

1.45pm Whiplash Willie @10/1
2.20pm Maarek @7/1 & An Saighdiur @100/1
2.55pm Cubanita @15/2 and Madame Chiang @16/1
3.30pm Tullius @10/1
4.45pm Levitate @12/1 (Chatez @8/1 & Russian Realm 12/1 also go well on soft)

Up In Class System

Today's article is a bit last minute because the regular Wednesday post has been delayed, so apologies if it lacks a little polish.

I've been looking back through my National Hunt systems to see what we can use this year and I've been experimenting with the notion of horses winning when they move up in class.

Basically I've taken a system that had a bad year and played about with it to see who did profit from the angle in question.

I've not finished with it yet and don't know if this is a goer but here's what I've got so far.

We're looking at Beginner and Novice National Hunt races and specifically at 4 and 5 year olds moving up in class.

And at the moment I am drilling down to find which trainers are profitable with these horses.

Here's the list of trainers I have that have profited…

Crook, A
Dickin, R
Egerton, C R
Ferguson, J P
Henderson, N J
Johnson, J Howard
Keane, D P
King, N B
Lavelle, Miss E C
Llewellyn, Carl
McCain, D
Walton, Mrs K
West, Miss Sheena
Williams, Miss Venetia

Some well known and some not so much.

The 2013 results for horses sent out by these trainers in beginner type races is as follows…

Runs = 97
Wins = 19
Strike Rate = 20%
Profit at iSP = 68.58
ROI at iSP = 70.7%

In 2014 so far it's…

Runs = 42
Wins = 9
Strike Rate = 21%
Profit at iSP = 76.72
ROI at iSP = 182.67%

I don't know if I'm onto something with this or am just reporting something that happened in the past, but I'll keep working at it and see what selections this initial idea throws up.

Got an idea to improve it? Post it in the comments 😉

Today's Selection

5.35 Wetherby Mr Moonshine – eachway bet – 13/2 Bet 365

Sky Super 6 – Hawkeye

So it's Saturday and that means we have the chance to win £250,000 for the huge stake of zero pounds and zero pence.

I guess that makes the odds infinity to 1 or 250,000/0, my calculator just says ‘error'.

Anyway zoom over to the Sky Super 6 page and register your scores – Click Here

Now we have our regular Saturday Snippet from Peter Hawkeye, don't forget you can trial his service for one month for just £7.99 Click Here http://dailypunt.com/hawkeye

I do think progressive 3 year olds are worth following at this time of year and one that catches my eye today is American Hope 2.55 Goodwood. He has produced two very decent efforts at Ascot recently and I believe there is still plenty more to come and he is 8’1 today.

Today's Selection courtesy of http://bookiesenemyno1.com

5.15 Goodwood Ogbourne Downs 8/1

Creating Betting Systems

Today we have a regular weekly catch up with Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

Betting systems really fascinate me especially horse racing ones.

It’s probably the main reason I have been creating them for over 12 years.

There are plenty of ideas about how to find winners (or losers) and creating systems is not always the most popular solution.

Many people believe the only way to actually pick a horse to follow in a race is to judge it against every other runner. Look for reasons why one selection has a better chance than all the others.

Although I do agree with this idea it’s not an easy thing to do and those that are most successful at it have spent a lot of time analyzing races and honing their skills.

Systems still take time to research, create and test but once you find something that appears profitable it can become a lot easier and quicker to get your daily selections.

And as I prefer automation it stands to reason this will be my favourite way of finding winners.

Anyway I thought over the next 3 articles I would give you an insight into how this “nerds” brain works (hmm not to sure you want to know) when he is trying to develop a system.

The first thing you are going to need is results.

There are plenty of sites about which allow you to analyse past data to see if you can find a way of picking winners.

Even our Grey Horse Bot members have access to our own growing archive of 230,000 + runs.

I have probably mentioned this before (I tend to repeat myself) that you must remember when you use past data it may contain information that you wouldn’t have known about until either in-play or after the event.


I tend to mention “number of runners” as an example.

Until the actual off, we have no way of knowing how many runners actually started the race.

SP and BSP are not available until in-play so you can only use these as a guide to the profitability of a system.

Until you actually test the system you will have no idea if you can actually get anywhere near to the profit you were expecting.

One of the questions I tend to get a lot is 
“Where do you start? How do you come up with the ideas for research?”

It’s a good question…

I tend to have 3 main ways of finding an idea.

Other peoples ideas.
Things I have noticed
Rating systems.


Other peoples ideas

Nope I don’t mean steal someone else’s system. 

What interest me is that sometimes in a forum, blog post, article or just during a conversation someone may mention a small triaval fact like…

“Beaten favourites do well when…”

Or

“Have you ever looked at 2 year olds on a AW running for the first time”

Or

“I have heard 4th LTO doing really well at this course….”

You get the idea.

I normally write these ideas down and check them out later.

Normally you end up finding out that there isn’t any profit in the idea or that there was just a trend that someone may have noticed that didn’t last long.

In next weeks article I will look at the other 2 points and

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
“The Nerd”

Find out more about the Greyhorse Bot at http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

6.40 Yarmouth Authorized Too – win bet – 15/8 Bet 365, Paddy Power

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close