Tag Archives: opposition

20/1 Cheltenham Bet

Today I have a Cheltenham bet from a tipster who made 65 points profit at last years festival and who set up the year for many of his members.

The bet is one leg of a yankee and if you want the other three legs there are details of a very special and cheap offer at the end of this post.

The four bets together will pay £29,248 for a 50 pence each way yankee if he pulls this off!

The Value Backing service is in great form at the moment and is already 33 points up for 2015 with a 118% ROI.

There have been winners this year already at  20/1, 18/1, 12/1 and shorter.

Here's the selection from Value Backing…

UPDATE – See The World will not run in the Champion Bumper 🙁

Champion Bumper Wednesday 11th March – See The World 1pt win @ 20’1 Betfred 

When it come to ante post betting at Cheltenham one of my favourite angles is to look for something out of the ordinary in a previous performance. Way back in 2005 I remember watching the great Kauto Star on just his second start for Paul Nicholls. He went through the race cruising in second gear only to fall at the second last. Back then a jockey could remount and Walsh having seen the winner go past him got back onboard and only just failed to win in a photo. Now the opposition may not have been world beaters, but that dramatic race indicated to me that Kauto could be something special and so it proved !
Now back in January this year at a cold damp day at Wincanton See The World put up something akin to that Kauto performance. He basically stopped to a walk 2 furlongs from home having taken up the lead and then hung left. What happened next is something I have never seen in a race. He started running again having given the ones that went by him 15 lengths start, caught them up and then breezed on by the runner up in the final 100 yard to win by 4 plus lengths and I was gobsmacked ! It is all well and good giving a few lengths  or so away at the start of a race, but 2 furlongs out, that should not have been possible.
Now again he may not have beaten much, but that performance was something out of the ordinary and as such I had to back See The World. He may well be a world beater only time will tell. But whatever happens at Cheltenham that performance at Wincanton is something I doubt I or anyone else will see again any time soon.
Carl Nicholson and Value Backing members cleaned up at last years festival with a whopping £653 profit to £10 stakes, with many members staking and winning much more.

This year you can join him on a special package for Cheltenham 2015.

Here's what you get…

  • A selection in every race at the 2015 festival
  • Access to all the Value Backing main service and Value Backing Extra selections from now until the festival
  • Access to all the Value Backing Daily selections every day from now until the festival
  • The sooner you join the more bets you get 🙂
  • The Value Backing ante-post Cheltenham Yankee, pays £29,248 for a 50 pence each way stake – the sooner you join the bigger the prices you can get!
  • Optional – discounted ongoing membership to Value Backing

The price is just £20 – Click Here to secure your place now.

Football and Racing Tips

I had a bet last night for today's Cheltenham meeting that demonstrates how far you can beat the market by following tipsters who do their own race assessments rather than waiting for markets to form and letting those markets influence their decisions.

At 5pm yesterday the Racing consultants sent their members a note telling them to get on a horse that was available at 8/1 and that on their assessment should be much shorter.

I had my little tenner on with Bet 365 and now the horse is 5/1 with Bet 365 and best priced 11/2.

This horse might lose, but to me it will be remembered as a good bet whether it wins or loses because it is my strong opinion that you should judge your bets by how much you beat starting price not by whether they win or lose.

This might sound crazy to some readers. But others will know that if you keep beating starting price by big margins that the profits will take care of themselves.

I'm going to give you the bet and the full assessment in a minute, but first I'd like to recommend that whether it wins or loses that if you are serious about winning that you join the Racing Consultants service.

These guys send out bets like this one on a regular basis and they beat the market.

http://racingconsultants.co.uk

By the way they sent another one at 5.20, but I'm not allowed to give that one, but if you join them you can get immediate access.

Here's the race assessment and bet…

2.25 FREEBETS.COM TROPHY CHASE (2M5F)

“Little Jon impressed me enough as a hurdler last year despite his build and background suggesting he’d be much better over fences, and he proved the point at the first time of asking at Newton Abbot in October, giving weight and a beating to the Paul Nicholls-trained Solar Impulse.

That preceded a trio of runs in higher company here, and the bottom line is that the long-striding son of Pasternak hasn’t beaten another rival.

That said, he actually ran a cracker when a close third over 2m in November, and has crashed out when leading on his next two starts.

Despite those aberrations, he appeals as a pretty sound jumper, if inclined to take the occasional fence (or indeed wing) on.

The upside of his failures is that he’s not revealed the full extent of his ability, and therefore the handicapper hasn’t been as severe as he might have been, accepting that an opening mark of 140 is no gimme.

Main opposition comes primarily in the shape of Easter Day for Paul Nicholls, and he can’t be ruled out of calculations, for all his odds will be skinny enough.

More interesting at the forecast prices is Annacotty, who was second in the novice handicap on this card last year. He was another who couldn’t cope with the demands of the Hennessy first time out, but he’s reportedly been perked up by a spell hunting, and also has cheekpieces fitted, so should have no excuses.

He was a Grade 1 winner last year, and that fact shouldn’t be overlooked.

2.25 Chel – 2pts win Little Jon @ 8/1 (Bet365)”

As mentioned above current best price is 11/2 with Skybet, Bet Victor, Paddy Power

Football Perm

We had a win last week with The Alternative Punters Syndicate (Free Trial Here)
and this week I've gone with their home wins perm…

Top Rated ‘Best 6 Homes'
(Perm any 5 from 6 plus all 6 = 7 bets)
TOTTENHAM
NORWICH
WATFORD
WOLVES
MK DONS
BARNET
The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 6 Homes' are available with…

Coral

Premier League Football Tips

Today we have a preview of the weekends football action and Premier League football tips from Tipster Warehouse…

Premier League Preview

With the excitement of the FA Cup now firmly behind us we once more focus on the Premier League race this weekend. All of the top four clubs will be looking to capitalise on facing weaker opposition and hope to pull away from the chasing pack. As always seems to be the way in this great league one of more of them is likely to fail in that pursuit and this Saturday I have a feeling that Jose Mourinho and his Chelsea men have the hardest task.

Chelsea play Everton in the early afternoon televised clash and although in previous years their form at the Bridge has been superb they do have an air of vulnerability about them this season. Roberto Martinez has managed to turn his squad of players into an effective but not consistent side and they will need to be at their very best to match the Blues. Although big favourites to win I have a feeling that these sides will nullify each other and a draw will be a fair result.

This would of course open up the top spots for those just behind them in the most exciting of title chases in recent memory. Both Arsenal and Manchester City play in rare 3pm Saturday kick offs and they will be hoping to jump on any mistakes made by Chelsea. The Gunners have what on paper looks to be an easy tie against Sunderland. The form of the Black Cats has improved enormously over recent months as Gus Poyet gets his feet under the table – 3 wins and a draw in the last 5 games is testament to that – but will this be enough to stop the juggernaut that is Arsenal? I suspect not and with Arsene Wenger’s men dispatching lower league opponents with aplomb this season I expect a 3 or 4 goal margin and a stroll for the gunners.

As for City they need Chelsea to lose and Arsenal to fail to pick up all three points if they are to top the table this weekend. With home form that is just truly stunning this season most of us would expect a trouncing for Stoke but I would utter a few words of caution. They are one of only four clubs this season who have managed to keep a clean sheet against City after their scoreless draw back in September and City have failed to register a goal in 180 Premier League minutes now. If I had to predict a result it would still be a heavy loss for Stoke but maybe just maybe they could get something from the game.

The last of the top four Liverpool play on Sunday and have what on paper is an easy match with Swansea. Luis Suarez has now failed to net in three games and with his form as good as it is I suspect that he will punish a club severely very soon. This could be Garry Monk and his not so merry men this weekend. A brace or hat trick from Suarez in a convincing win for the Reds looks likely.

One last match that seems good value for taking candy from the bookies is Crystal Palace against a resurgent and fired up Manchester United. Although in poor form of late I just can’t see Messrs Rooney and Van Persie failing to run riot in South London and rack up a cricket score. Palace are playing better football of late but that is when faced with less tough opposition. United will be too strong for them and I expect a good away win.

Double Tip this weekend

I fancy Manchester clubs both United and City to win convincingly and reap some fine rewards for punters. If you’re feeling a little more adventurous I’d add Arsenal and Liverpool to the mix for a nice little foursome.

Manchester City + Manchester United both to win gives odds of 1.94

Manchester City + Manchester United + Arsenal + Liverpool all 4 to win gives odds of 3.36

To find out more about Tipster Warehouse and to get more free tips Click Here.

Today's Racing Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders

Exeter 4.20 Wilton Milan – win bet – 7/2 bet 365, Bet Victor

Horse Racing Laying System

We often get emails into Daily Punt asking about methods and techniques for finding horses to lay.

So today a basic method that I've borrowed from the Easy Lay Method website.

There are many reasons why horses lose their races and the most obvious is that usually there is always a horse that is capable of winning on his day.

So we need to analyse a race from the viewpoint, not of whether the horse can win, but whether others can beat it!

As a general rule only 30% of favourites win their races. It’s a fact that the most certain of certainties can lose and they very often do.

Couple this with the fact that in pure numerical terms in a ten runner race for example, there is only a 1 in ten chance of winning.

Now let us look at the numerous reasons why market leaders might not win the race.

1. The going is not ideal – some horses race best on ground that suits their running style.

For example a horse that lifts its hooves up high will usually do best on soft going and possibly the all weather tracks.

Horses that appear to glide over the ground will prefer good or firm going as their hooves are not going to sink into the surface.

Use the past race comments to identify horses that are not proven on today’s going.

2. The course is not ideal – most horses have a preference for a certain type of course.

The type of course they prefer is often highlighted by their results.

Some are nippy types and prefer a tight course such as Chester.

Others may be out and out gallopers and will prefer a course such as Aintree, while some prefer to run on all weather surfaces such as fibresand or polytrack.

Again look for fancied horses not proven at the course or similar types of courses.

3. The trip is not ideal – horses are like human athletes as some are muscle bound sprinters.

Some lithe and lean long distance runners and most are probably somewhere in between.

Although it is true for most horses that they become better at longer distances as they age.

This may explain why there are a much larger percentage of older horses in jumps races of 3 miles and further.

As well as looking at past form think about which of the contenders fit the profile for the type of horse that does well in today’s type of race.

There are a whole plethora of further reasons which might affect a horse’s performance on the day eg Doesn’t travel well, prefer different seasons, prefer small or large fields of runners, mares very often do well when in foal and you begin to see it is a wonder that horses perform as consistently as they do.

Your job is to find these weaknesses.

Let’s take a look at some example lay selections found by the ELM “Elite”.

Pontefract 2.10 Transcental – Lost at 100-30 SP Favourite

Positive: Her previous 3rd encouraged the market to consider this valuable experience in a field of unraced maidens
Negative: Never underestimate the opposition in maiden races as so little is known about the runners.

Pontefract 4.10 Adab – Lost as 2-1 Favourite

Positive: Fair 3rd last time out
Negative: Different type of course – the one galloping and the other tight

Bath 7.15 Danski – Lost at 5-1 favourite

Positive: Previous 4th was a fair run
Negative: Race was on all weather at Kempton not turf as at Bath

Southwell 4.25 Graylyn Ruby – Lost at 9-2 favourite

Positive: Tried this trip for the first time when 3rd at this venue last time
Negative: Same track and trip but stiffer competition

What we can see from these selections is that most are poor value.

They are favourites or short priced for the wrong reasons, namely their position last time out and this is what gives us the edge.

They are often backed into favouritism because of what they achieved last time out rather than on their true merits.

Unusually, market sentiment in these cases has given us an edge.

For more info or to get daily lay selections go to http://www.easylaymethod.com

Today's Selection

Pontefract 8.20 Reset City – each way bet – 11/1 Bet Victor, Sky Bet

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