Tag Archives: Paul Nichols

Headgear Racing System

So last week I told you about an article over at Geegeez that put forward the idea of backing Paul Nichols runners who wear headgear for the first time.

So today I have done some research and investigated all the trainers who have been profitable in the past with their runners who were wearing headgear for the first time.

I'm looking at National Hunt only and am looking at horses who are wearing cheekpieces, blinkers or a hood for the first time.

Along the way I discovered a system with a 10,000% ROI!

Ok, I spotted a trainer who in 2014 only had one runner (Viking Rebel) who wore headgear for the first time and that runner won at 100/1.

Although that would make any system look like a winner I have not included it in my system below.

What I have got is a long list of trainers who had at least 10 runners wearing headgear for the first time from January 1st 2013 through to December 31st 2014 and who made a good profit at iSP with those runners.

Runs = 767
Wins = 127
Strike Rate = 16.56%
Profit at industry SP = 405.23
ROI = 52.83%

All the research was done on the data from 2013 and 2014 and if I run that system on 2015 so far it has already made 42 points profit in 2015.

But, here's the thing!

You could've backed every horse that wore headgear for the first time so far this year and made a profit.

I'm going to monitor this for a while and share any bets that come up on this page and then decide what to do with it once we have some live results.

There's no National Hunt racing today.

Today's Selection

3:10 Wolverhampton – Don't Be – win bet – 10/11 Paddy Power

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80% Strike Rate So Far This Year

Last week I read an article on Geegeez website that blew my socks off.

So today I want to encourage you to read it.

The article is Matt Bisogno's review of the London Racing Club get together, which might sound like a dull report on some trainer or other being interviewed.

But it also includes some excellent insights that were shared by this months interviewees, who were the Hill family (Lawney et al…).

It includes the bones of a system that has seen 4 winners from 5 so far this year.

I know it's only January  26th, but even so there is some potential for a decent system based on Paul Nichols horses that wear headgear for the first time.

I've added this to my notebook for future research.

There's also a discussion about the use of tongue ties which could also lead to a profitable system with some further research.

Go and have a read and later in the week we'll see if we can boil this idea down into a system that we can use for the rest of the season.

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/

By the way if you are fed up with the Racing Post racecards and you want something faster and easier to digest try the Geegeez Gold racecards – Click Here

Today's selection comes from the Geegeez Shortlist report which is normally available to Gold members only, but on a Tuesday is available to all. (There are another 7 selections on this free report today – Click Here)

Today's Selection

Southwell 2:10 Abi Scarlett – win bet – 5/4 Will Hill

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So onto the tips.

On the racing front Nick has already posted two Paul Nichols selections for today at Cheltenham, and they are…

12.50pm Virak & Katgary
2.00pm Caid Du Berlais

And we have out aways perm from The Alternative Punters Syndicate where you can get a totally free one month trial of their racing and football tips.

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HEARTS – Match Posponed
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Kauto Stone

Tomorrow sees the main event of the Sandown Tingle Creek meeting the Sportingbet Tingle Creek Chase (Saturday 3.15).

This Grade 1 2 mile chase is a race that Paul Nichols has won for the last six years.

This year he has two entries Tataniano and Kauto Stone who is a half brother to Kauto Star who won the race in 2005 and 2006.

Kauto Stone has had one race since coming over from France and that was his victory in the Ladbrokes.com Chase a grade 2 event over 2 miles 4 furlongs at Down Royal last month.

The video above shows that run and I've included it to show just how well Kauto Stone jumps.

He won this race by a comfortable 6 1/2 lengths.

It would be easy to think that this horse will be the next wonder horse given his pedigree and trainer and just his name and I dont want to get carried away , but I will be having a bet on Saturday as long as the ground is on the soft side.

So what of the other market leaders. Paul Nichols has already said Tataniano wouldnt want it soft.

Sizing Europe and Wishful Thinking are both quality animals who have a big chance and would both be happy with soft ground.

So this is no sure thing.

Kauto Stone is generally available at 6/1 as I write so an eachway bet seems to be in order subject to the going being soft, which the weather forecast suggests it will be.

Todays Tip

Exeter 2.40 Strongly Suggested

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