Tag Archives: plan

Stop at a Winner Systems

Today Malcolm from http://greyhorsebot.com is back with details of a test he is running on a stop at a winner system…

Stop at a winner.

Have you ever tried a stop at a winner system?

You know where you have a number of selections for the day but stop as soon as you get the first win?

The people against SAW argue…

…”If the selections you are using are profitable then why stop?”

Although I agree some of my experiments are showing that they can actually be just as profitable or more so over time.

It can also mean you don’t have to put up with so many losers.

There is no doubt that SAW won’t work for every system and they are more suited to high strike rate systems where you have a 40% or above strike rate.

This normally means you are on quite fancied and sometimes low priced runners.

Looking through the race cards and looking at just the 1st and 2nd favourites is a good place to start and can easily give you 3 or more selections to use each day if you carefully consider which ones to use.

The other thing you need to consider is stop loss.

I have found that on days where things are not going to plan it’s pointless to just keep going.

In fact it is better to get yourself out after 3 or 4 losses than it is to keep hoping for a win and then having to make up a lot of lost points.

Also by limiting your maximum loss does allow you to consider different staking options.

If you are interested I have set up and experiment over at the Grey Horse Bot web site.

The selections are chosen using 3 criteria.

– They must be highest ranked by price early in the morning (around 6am)
– Their in-house rating should be 100 or more (you can choose this figure)
– Their price must be the same or lower when we get the mid morning prices (11am to 11.30am)

I am calling it an “interactive” test because you can experiment with the rating number.

You can see the results using all the selections and SAW.

You can even get the daily selections so that you can follow along and see how it actually works.

Click Here to have a look


Thanks
Malcolm
Grey Horse Bot.

Today's Selection

3.20 Southwell Red Stripes – win bet – 7/4 Paddy Power, Bet 365

Winning Trends

If you're a fan of building your own horse racing systems then one thing you must do to improve your systems is to break them down by trainer!

With any system creation you do these days you have to be targeting the small winning factor that you think will prove to be profitable.

There is no one system that can find you multiple bets everyday now, at least not one that makes a profit.

So any successful system that you create will likely drill down into one profitable angle and the fact is that in most cases there will be some trainers that exploit that angle better than others.

Or it may just be that some of the trainers that exploit it are not so popular and so are not overbet and so their runners start at value prices that can make a profit.

If you want further explanation of this strategy for improving systems then pop over to Winning Trends and watch the video there.

If you want daily selections from a portfolio of trainer based systems that have made an average of 18 points profit each month this year, then join the Winning Trends service for just £19.99 per month.

http://winningtrends.co.uk

Today's Selection

2:40 Kempton Greatest Journey – win bet – 5/1 Coral

Horse Racing Staking Plans

I read an interesting article recently about why horse racing staking plans don't help when backing horses.

Basically the premise was that if you are backing then you are betting more losers than winners and if you have any type of increasing stakes plan then you will be increasing stakes on losers also and so you will lose more. Or at least your return on investment will go down.

But that got me thinking, because if we are betting odds on shots then we will have more winners than losers, so that means if we increase stakes then we will be staking more on winners than losers. Because there are more of them.

This reminded me of the Odds On Trainer and Odds On Jockey systems we created back in May of this year.

Both of these systems are in profit, but at Starting Prices it is a very modest profit.

Here are the numbers since we created the system

Odds On Trainers = 3.43 points from 108 bets with a 60.19% strike rate
Odds On Jockeys = 3.35 points from 85 bets with a 63.53% strike rate

To be honest I tend to agree with the article and don't like any form of increasing stakes staking plan, but I think a simple percent of bank plan would go well with these strike rates.

If we revisit my article from earlier in the month about longest losing runs we can calculate that we can expect a longest losing run of about 9 with a 60% strike rate from 100 bets.

So I think a 5% of bank staking plan would work well as it allows for 20 losers in a row.

I applied this plan to the Odds On Trainers system and it made a profit of £7.13 from a £100 bank 🙁 level £5 stakes would have made £17.15.

So I did the same with the Odds On Jockeys system and got similar results, using 5% of the bank made a profit of £10.14, but level £5 stakes produced £16.75.

So what's the point here, I think it's just that beware of anything promising riches from a system or tips that use a particular staking plan.

I'm sure I could come up with a staking plan that would make these selections more profitable, but it would probably only work on that particular sequence.

Feel free to discuss this in the comments and I'll investigate any interesting points raised when I get back from my hols.

Today's Selection courtesy of http://bookiesenemyno1.com

7.50 Wolverhampton Old Fashion 11/4

Word from the Nerd

This weeks article from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com sheds some light on the topic of value…

People are always talking about value when it comes to horse racing.

But for the average punter in the street it’s a bit of a mystery.

It sounds like one of those weird things that all the experts like to talk about among themselves, while keeping everyone else in the dark about what it actually is.

Well let’s see if we can shed light on the subject.

The obvious explanation for value is:

“A horse’s real chance of winning is better than the odds reflect.”

So a horse may have a current price of 4/1 but according to those in the know it should be 3/1.

All things being equal if you placed a bet on every horse where you found this discrepancy you should make a profit because the horse should win more often than the odds reflect.

But this is where for the average punter the problem lies.

How do you tell if a horse’s current price represents value?

Well that’s where the whole thing gets complicated.

It is really based around opinions and peoples different way’s of deciding if a horse has a better chance of winning, than the general view.

Most people try to work it out early so they can take a better price before the rest of the markets catch on.

Sometimes you can even see a difference between bookies and Betfair (which most people believe to represent a more accurate view of a horse’s true chance of winning).

But it still doesn’t help if you haven’t got a way of looking at each horse and deciding which one has the best chance of winning.

I always look at it from a system development point of view.

If I create a system that has a 25% strike rate then I need to get average winning odds of at least 4.00 to break even.

But I need better odds than that to make money.

But really that is all a system is…

It identifies horses that traditionally have odds higher (or better value) than the strike rate of the system points towards.

That’s why I always tell people… 

“Although there are lots of different statistics you can watch and monitor it is the strike rate and average winning odds that dictate if a system is profitable or not.”

So once you developed, purchase or find a system that you want to use, your only priority is to find the best price you can for each selection.

At the end of the day you can not control the strike rate of a system unless you “tweak” it (but then it becomes a new system) so your only chance to make profit is to work on the average winning price.

My own personal experience always leads me to Betfair because even after the 5% commission generally the prices are much better especially when you are not on the favourite.

Anyway I hope that goes some way to showing what value is.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
“The nerd”

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

Sandown 7.25 Prince of Stars – win bet – 9/4 Boylesports

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