Tag Archives: potential winners

Create your own speed ratings

Over the last few years I have created a number of different ratings for our own use and clients but these have all be form related.

So I guess it was only a matter of time before the question of speed ratings came up.

Some people argue that speed is the only real way to judge a horses chance of winning a race…

But as with all things racing, it is never quite that simple.

Speed of course is related to distance.

It is the time it took the horse to run the race divided by the distance that gives us the speed at which the horse travelled.

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Place Ratings

Today we have our regular Wednesday column from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

Using ratings to find selections to place

I was never really interested in the place market on Betfair until recently.
But while working on a new ratings system I noticed a trend that got my attention.

Lately I have got very interested in high strike rate systems that normally select runners that are ranked 1st to 3rd in the betting.

Admittedly these are not the easiest systems to make money with but they can be a little more interesting to follow than your average “One a day” wait for a winner type system.

I am not knocking this type of system as I run many of them myself. I am just saying that sometimes it’s nice to have a few more selections that seem to win very often.

Over the last year or so I have been creating quite a few rating figures based on different ideas and I have shared some of these with Grey Horse Bot users.

The idea of creating any ratings is to help you identify potential winners but I think “help” is the key word…

…They can be useful in helping you to narrow down the field and letting you concentrate on just a few selections in each race.

In my last couple of articles I have mentioned that I was concentrating on the top 3 in the betting as ranked by the BSP prices early in the morning and I wanted to carry on with that idea.

I tend to try and make it a little easier on myself like sticking to “Handicap” races only as I have in this case.

As a programmer with quite a large database of results and information to use I am lucky in the sense that I can come up with ideas and then test them quite quickly.

But you should never forget the fact that humans are very good at noticing patterns.

I make sure I spend a great deal of time just looking at my ratings within the context of a lot of other racing information, just to see if I notice something that I may not have seen just by looking at individual numbers.

And this is what I was doing while looking at my latest ratings.

It appeared that the selections that I had been highlighting (I use yellow normally) to show me strong selections (although were not winning all the time) did appear to place.

Of course nothing is ever that simple and the next thing was to discover if I could come up with a way of identifying enough winning selections to make money.
And that’s where I am at the moment.

I have a list of daily selections and I have to decide which ones I am going to place.

With a couple of rules I am able to either discount the race entirely or select just one runner to follow.

If you would like to see the daily selections and the ideas I have come up with then pop over here for a look. Click Here

You can look back to the beginning of this month at the moment to see if you can find anything yourself.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

The Grey Horse Bot

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

12:35:00 Fairyhouse Digeanta – eachway bet 6/1 Bet Victor, Bet 365

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Cesarewitch Tips

Today we have our weekly look at the weekends racing action from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman)

Nick has set us up with some nice winners this season and today he tries to find us the winner of the Cesarewitch to add to his tally…

Last week we highlighted in-form trainer Charlie Longsdon. He bagged us a winner that day and has followed up with another in midweek. He is still a trainer I want to keep on-side in the early part of the season and he sends a few runners to Carlisle today.

He has a decent strike rate at the track too with 6 winners from 19 runners. He has the following entries on Friday:

Charlie Longsdon Carlisle runners Friday 10/10/2014

3.10pm Drop Out Joe
3.45pm Orange Nassau
4.20pm Simply The West
5.20pm Deadly Move

Cesarewitch Tips

On to Saturday and we have the last of the big handicaps in the Cesarewitch.

Having already landed the Ebor and Cambridgeshire it is a tall order to land the hat-trick but I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t at least share my thoughts.

This race has gone to some big priced winners in recent times including winners at 66/1, 66/1 and 25/1 in the last three renewals.

Weight and official ratings do not tell us much regarding potential winners but, with the exception of Scatter Dice last year, the previous 10 winners had winning form over 2m or further.

Hurdlers have finished in the top two in 13 of the last 17 renewals. Other strong trends include a top 4 finish last time out and no more than 7 runs in the season. That helps reduce the field to 9.

One who ticks plenty of boxes is Big Easy for Philip Hobbs and the trainer knows what it take to win this having done so with Detroit City in 2006.

Big Easy looks to have solid credentials having finished runner-up in the trial race 3 weeks ago. That was his first flat run of the season and he should come on bundle for the run and he has a nice draw in stall 2.

Another who is guaranteed to stay is Chester Cup winner Suegioo. He last two runs have been over trips shorter than 2 miles and I think he will relish every yard of this trip. He was also a fine 2nd in the Northumberland Plate over 2 miles and that race is a good pointer for horses who run well in the Cesarewitch.

Another with solid prospects is Swnymor who has to turn the form around with hotpot favourite Quick Jack, but he takes him on here on much better terms (16lbs better to be exact).

My only concern is his wide draw in stall 34 but with several bookmakers paying 6 places he is still worth an each-way interest.

If you fancy taking something at a bigger price then the ultra-consistent Noble Silk, a good 4th in the Northumberland Plate, should give you a run for your money 33/1.

Nicky Henderson trained the winner of this in 2008 and Kieron Fallon rode the winner in 2012. They team up on Earth Amber @33/1 and any rain would help his cause, although he is another from our short list who has been done no favours by the draw (stall 33).

Saturday Newmarket 3.50pm

Trends horses: Big Easy @12/1 & Suegioo @16/1

Alternatives: Swnymor @16/1, Earth Amber @33/1 & Noble Silk @33/1

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How to Make Money Betting

Today I'm going to do a bit of a brain dump on the ways I make money from betting and hopefully cover off a lot of the questions I get asked regularly.

As always if you have opinions on anything I mention or you totally disagree with what I say then you can express yourself in the comments below.

So I'm only going to talk about horse racing betting today, I'll cover other sports and opportunities another day.

Working out the form on every race: I don't work out form in the traditional sense. I know people who do but it takes over their lives. They can spend hours on a single race and they end up as boring obsessives IMHO.

So what are the alternatives?

To my mind everything that works is a betting system!

I know as soon as I write that some people will be ready to tell me that it's impossible to win with systems.

But there are different types of system and people define them in different ways.

It is unlikely that you will make long term profit with a simple set of 4 or 5 rules that direct you to a selection.

And to my mind if your system is based upon the Racing Post betting forecast then it misses the point of finding value bets totally because you need to be finding horses that the Racing Post has overlooked if you want value.

Although there is a system doing the rounds at the moment based on backing 2nd and 3rd favourites that just keeps making money, time will tell if that can continue.

No when I talk about a system I'm talking in the business sense of a process that points you towards potential winners but that still requires some judgement or common sense.

A good example of the type of thing I'm talking about is Mark Foley's Trainer Trends.

Essentially what Mark is doing is analysing the habits of trainers.

Everybody has habits and we repeat those habits over and over again. If something works for us once we tend to do it again.

So Mark researches these habits from previous years and then looks for similar situations for the same trainer. That's his system and then he adds some judgement (looks at ratings etc) to make sure the horse has some sort of chance to finalise his selections.

I got an email the other day from somebody who had applied some complicated statistical analysis to Mark's selections and the result was that statistically there was a 90% chance that Mark's past performance (60 points up since the start of the flat) would continue.

90%! I don't even understand the maths but I know that means Mark's methods work.

Other things that work…

Identifying horses that have been harshly treated by the handicapper.

There are a lot of horses that just cannot win off of their current handicap. But they are good horses and over time they will return to a mark that they can win off of. And they will surprise a lot of punters and will win off of big prices.

As you know I'm working on a method to identify these via an automated method. I'm not there yet. But if you want to spend the time going through the days handicaps looking for horses that are back to a winning mark you will make money.

Identifying horses that have run well without winning.

Royal Ascot is a recent example of where you could have found future winners. There were horses that were drawn such that they just couldnt win and jockeys that made bad judgements (or were in impossible positions) as to where they should run on the course and ruined the chances of their mounts.

These horses should be identified and followed and profits will follow.

There are some hugely skilled people in race watching and once you are good at this you can land some huge priced winners.

Breeding

You may have noticed that a few of our selections on this page this month were un-raced two year olds. That's because I have done research on which sires produce horses that win at two and under what conditions.

Identifying stallion trends can lead to profits.

Of course if you do all of the above you will run out of time, that's why I rely on other people to find a lot of the selections I bet. And you should to, bet selections from your own methods along with the selections from a few trusted sources.

That's all I have time for today, tell me what you think in the comments.

Today's Selection

Newcastle 5.00 San Cassiano – win bet – 2/1 Bet 365, Bet Victor

 

 

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