Tag Archives: Power Gold Cup

Grand National Tip :-o

Can I have more please? More Nick Hardman incites.

Yes it's Friday and this week Nick Hardman (http://bettinginsiders.com) has an improvement to yesterday's Southwell system, an ante post bet for the Grand National and an angle and selections for today's Cheltenham meeting.
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Yesterday we gave you a nice system for Keith Dalgleish’s handicap runners at Southwell. I was playing around with Horse Race Base and I found that we can improve on his already excellent performance at the Midlands track with a system that has a 50% strike rate in the last two years.

Using HRB I found that all bar one of his 19 winners at Southwell were in races at distances between 7f and 2m (his runners are 1-12 over 5f and 6f showing a loss of -£5.50).

In addition I found that Dalgleish has used 15 different jockeys for those 72 rides at Southwell. All the winners have been ridden by just three jockeys:

If we concentrate on 2013 and 2014 then we come up with a system showing a 50% strike rate in the last two years:

Rules: Keith Dalgleish runners at Southwell (AW) over 7f to 2m ridden by Tom Eaves or Simon Walker:

Runners = 30
Winners = 15
Places = 17
Win strike rate = 50%
Place strike rate = 57%
Profit/ Loss = +£62.41

When it comes to readying one for the Grand National, no one does it better than the McCain yard. This season their two Grand National horses appear to be Across The Bay and Kruzhlinin.

Jockey bookings (and finishing places) in the Becher Chase suggest Kruzhlinin is the stable first choice for the Big One. He was sent off at 33/1 to for the Becher Chase where he finished a never nearer, but highly respectable 7th.

I expected to see him at a similar price for the 2015 Grand National and could not believe that Skybet were offering 100/1. About 18 horses finish the Grand National these days and Kruzhlinin has shown that he gets round over these fences, having finished 10th back in April.

Effectively we are looking at 100/1 in an 18 runner race. Unfortunately Skybet have cut him to 50/1 but he is still available at 66/1 with a few firms. When I bet the Grand National I am primarily looking for a sound jumper with course experience and a fairly low weight.

Kruzhlinin ticks plenty of boxes and as apparent stable first string he rates decent ante-post value at 66/1.

Grand National ante-post tip: Kruzhlinin @66/1

Cheltenham’s December meeting kicks off today with the feature race being the Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday and unfortunately my ante-post fancies John’s Spirit and Present View are not lining up.

Paul Nicholls is the most successful trainer at the December meeting in recent times with 14 winners since 2010 (from 50 runners, 28% strike rate).

At the December meeting since 2010 he is 4-10 with his chasers in class 1 and 2 races that have run at Cheltenham 2 or more times.

He has the following entries that fit that profile:

Friday:

12.30pm Vivaldi Collonges (chase debut, likely outsider of the four)

Saturday

12.50pm Virak & Katgary
2.00pm Caid Du Berlais

Good luck if you are having a bet this weekend.

Weekend Racing Tips

Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman) keeps sending winners our way and this week he looks at today's Doncaster card and tomorrows Aintree feature…

Weekend Racing Tips

Our mud-larks ran well at Ascot last weekend with Madame Chiang being the highlight winning at 12/1.  Betfair backers would have been nicely rewarded with an SP of 18.

Not a lot of action this Friday, but I want to highlight the performance of Luca Cumani at Doncaster this season and he has a number of runners this afternoon.

We will also be taking a look at the Old Roan Chase from Aintree that takes centre stage on Saturday.

Luca Cumani is having a solid season and one track where he has done particularly well is Doncaster.  Here are his statistics at the Yorkshire course this season to date:

Runs: 21

Wins: 8

Strike rate (% win): 38%

Strike rate (% place): 62%

Profit to level £1 stakes: £13.51

On Friday he runs:

1.50pm Dreamlike

3.30pm Sleeper King @25/1 (e/w ¼ odds, 5 places)

4.05pm Norway Cross @6/1

4.40pm Kleo @5/1

Dreamlike is a 2yo and Cumani has not had a 2yo winner at the course in the last 5 seasons (0-11). 

I would not be overly concerned by that statistic as he has only had the two 2yo runners up at Doncaster this season.

Overall his juveniles are 7-34 this year at a highly respectable strike rate of 21%. 

Dreamlike made an encouraging debut and there is likely more to come.  The market could be quite informative of her chances and she could go well at a price. 

Sleeper King has failed to progress from a promising 2yo campaign and he has shown nothing in 4 starts this year (form figures 0000).  However, this is his first run for Cumani having previously been with Kevin Ryan.  Caution is advised if you decide to back him. 

Norway Cross is interesting up in trip having won at Windsor last time out and Kleo is still unexposed after two wins this season and a LTO fourth in a Listed race at Yarmouth in September.  These two appear to have the best chances of the quartet.

The jumps season is starting to gather momentum and this Saturday sees the Old Roan Chase at Aintree. 

This year’s renewal looks wide open and a case can be made for many including current favourite Uxizandre, Module, Rajdhani Express and last year’s winner Conquisto. 

At the prices I think there is a bit of value in Conquisto to retain his crown if the ground stays good. 

A lot of the higher rated horses in this race will have other targets such as the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Cheltenham festival whereas this looks like Conquisto’s main target. 

He is 4lbs lower than when winning this last year and I think he could well have been laid out for this. 

As an each-way alternative then Astracad could outrun his price, especially as he seems to save some of his better performances for Aintree (including a decent 2nd in this last year). 

In 2013 he ran in a 2 ½ mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham October meeting a week before lining up for this.  He has followed exactly the same path this year and with the Twiston-Davies horses running well he can give each-way backers a decent run for their money. 

If the rain arrives and there is a change in the going to soft then Wishfull Thinking would have to enter calculations.  His last 3 wins have come on heavy, soft and soft going.  He is rated 162 but he won twice off this mark last season.

Saturday Aintree 3.00pm

Conquisto @7/1 (if the ground remains good)

Each-way alternatives: Astracad @14/1 & Wishfull Thinking @14/1 (soft or worse) 

£400,000 Prize Pool

It's time to get your entry in for the Tote Tent To Follow fantasy racing competition.

There are huge prizes for the final winner as well as monthly £10,000 bonus prizes.

To win the prizes all you have to do is pick 10 horses from those listed and add those to your stable.

You will then win points every time any of your stable wins a qualifying race.

With bonus points for the big races of the season.

The first monthly bonus prize will be awarded to the top scoring stable between 15th November and 30th November.

To win that first bonus prize you probably will need to have the winner of this weekends Paddy Power Gold Cup and the winner of the Hennessy Gold Cup Chase at the end of the month.

So maybe have a think about the likely winners of these 2 races to get your entry off to a good start.

http://totesport.com

Here is the full list of bonus races…

RACE COURSE & DATE

Paddy Power Gold Cup; Cheltenham, 16 November 2013
Hennessy Gold Cup Chase; Newbury, 30 November 2013
International Hurdle; Cheltenham, 16 December 2013
William Hill King George VI Chase; Kempton Park, 26 December 2013
Irish Champion Hurdle; Leopardstown, 26 January 2014
Irish Hennessy Gold Cup; Leopardstown, 09 February 2014
Racing Post Arkle; Cheltenham, 11 March 2014
Stan James Champion Hurdle; Cheltenham, 11 March 2014
Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase; Cheltenham, 12 March 2014
RSA Chase; Cheltenham, 12 March 2014
Ladbrokes World Hurdle;Cheltenham, 13 March 2014
Ryanair Chase ; Cheltenham, 13 March 2014
Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup; Cheltenham, 14 March 2014
Aintree Hurdle; Aintree, 05 April 2014
Crabbie's Grand National; Aintree, 05 April 2014

All the above dates are subject to confirmation of the 2013/2014 racing calendar.

http://totesport.com

Lay Debutants

13:20:00 Sedgefield 3 Clues And Arrows
14:30:00 Lingfield 6 Sirrah Star (IRE)
16:05:00 Lingfield 4 Greatday Allweek (IRE)
16:15:00 Wolverhampton 4 Alba Verde
16:15:00 Wolverhampton 1 Dreese (IRE)
16:15:00 Wolverhampton 3 Techtycoon

Lay Handicap

12:40:00 Huntingdon 3 Boss In Boots (IRE)

Today's Selection

1.30 Lingfield Bit Of A Clown – eachway bet – 8/1 Bet Victor, Bet 365, Sporting Bet

Saturday Selections

Today we have free tips for the footy and the racing plus details of some bonuses you can claim on todays racing.

Bet365 have their usual Channel 4 racing offer whereby if you get a winner at 4/1 or greater you get a matching free bet on the next TV race. You can get this whether you're an existing member or a new member. Bet365 are committing to being best price or equal best price on all TV races as well.

Click Here for Bet 365

Betdaq have a free bet offer on the Paddy Power Gold Cup for new and existing customers. Place a £10 bet on the Gold Cup and you get a free £10 bet, so essentially you get your stake back win or lose. Except you have to use the free £10 on Betdaq.

Click the banner below to take advantage of this offer.

Football Selection Courtesy of Football Bets (Get their other selection for £1)

Reading v Everton (3:00pm)
Everton To Win at 7/8 (1.88) Pinnacle 20/23 (1.87) BetVictor 6/7 (1.86) 32Red 17/20 (1.85) WilliamHill Paddypower Sbobet Expekt 1pt

Racing Selection Coutesy of Colin Leafe Racing

8.50 Wolverhampton Aragorn Rouge 2 Points win 2/1 WH CORAL BOYLE BET VICTOR 365 BOG

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