Tag Archives: promising

Understanding Greyhound Racing Form

Understanding Greyhound Racing Form

I've been promising for a while now that I will teach some winning greyhound strategies so today I'm going to explain how the form is recorded for the dogs. I'll then go on to share a strategy that I have used for years whenever I bet the dogs.

This is going to run over a number of days and I might spread it out a bit so as to not bore those readers not interested in the dogs, but we'll see how it goes.

So below you will see a screenshot of some greyhound racing form and below that a list of what the various items mean.

Greyhound racing form

Greyhound racing form – Click to Enlarge

[1] Starting with the easy, this is the trap that the dog will run from

[2] The dogs name & (W) indicates that this dog is a wide runner and consequently it will be allocated one of the outside traps each time it runs. You may also see (M) which indicates a middle runner and this dog will be allocated a middle trap.

[3] The best recent (Calculated) time that the greyhound has achieved along with details of the grade and the date. In this case the best time came in a trial, a trial is a qualifying race which helps the racing manager to know how to grade the dog IE what is it's ability what race should he put it in. Trials will usually have less than 6 runners, 3 in this case, and there is no betting on trials.

[4] The name of the trainer.

[5] This is the Racing Post rating for the dog. It is time based and personally I don’t pay much attention to it.

[6] A description of the animal in this case a F b which is a fawn bitch (female) a male will be indicated with a d for dog. This is followed by the name of the dogs sire (father), dam (mother) and the date whelped (Date of Birth).

[7] Date last in season. Bitches only!

[8] This is the Racing Post's tipsters comment, often vague and and can sway your judgement.

Now we get to the past form for the dog in question. Each line represents one race with the top line being the most recent.

[9] The date of the race.

[10] The track where the race was run.

[11] The distance of the race in metres.

[12] The trap number that the dog ran from on that occasion.

[13] The sectional or split time. This is the time from the traps to the winning line the first time the dog passes the line. This is useful to hep you understand the pace of the dog and whether it is likely to lead early.

[14] Position in race at the start (IE out of the traps), quarter (In a 4 bend race this will be between the 1st & 2nd bends), half and three quarter stages.

[15] Finishing position.

[16] The distance beaten by or if the winner the distance won by.

[17] The name of the winner or the second if this dog was the winner.

[18] The Racing Manager's in running comments for that run

[19] The time that the winner took to complete the race.

[20] The allowance made for the going. N = normal otherwise plus or minus in hundredths of a second EG – 40 means that the time was adjusted down by 40 hundredths of a second.

[21] The starting price of the dog.

[22] The grade of the race.

[23] The calculated time for this dog. This will be calculated from the distance the dog finished behind the winner and adjusted for the going allowance.

Now that we understand the information (form) that we have available next time we can look at how we can use that information.

Now we know how to read the card check out these posts that deal with finding a winner.

Who is the fastest to the first bend

Greyhound racing videos 

Baulking

Is it fast enough

Image courtesy of Saris0000 under Creative Commons 2.0

Weekend Racing Tips

Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman) keeps sending winners our way and this week he looks at today's Doncaster card and tomorrows Aintree feature…

Weekend Racing Tips

Our mud-larks ran well at Ascot last weekend with Madame Chiang being the highlight winning at 12/1.  Betfair backers would have been nicely rewarded with an SP of 18.

Not a lot of action this Friday, but I want to highlight the performance of Luca Cumani at Doncaster this season and he has a number of runners this afternoon.

We will also be taking a look at the Old Roan Chase from Aintree that takes centre stage on Saturday.

Luca Cumani is having a solid season and one track where he has done particularly well is Doncaster.  Here are his statistics at the Yorkshire course this season to date:

Runs: 21

Wins: 8

Strike rate (% win): 38%

Strike rate (% place): 62%

Profit to level £1 stakes: £13.51

On Friday he runs:

1.50pm Dreamlike

3.30pm Sleeper King @25/1 (e/w ¼ odds, 5 places)

4.05pm Norway Cross @6/1

4.40pm Kleo @5/1

Dreamlike is a 2yo and Cumani has not had a 2yo winner at the course in the last 5 seasons (0-11). 

I would not be overly concerned by that statistic as he has only had the two 2yo runners up at Doncaster this season.

Overall his juveniles are 7-34 this year at a highly respectable strike rate of 21%. 

Dreamlike made an encouraging debut and there is likely more to come.  The market could be quite informative of her chances and she could go well at a price. 

Sleeper King has failed to progress from a promising 2yo campaign and he has shown nothing in 4 starts this year (form figures 0000).  However, this is his first run for Cumani having previously been with Kevin Ryan.  Caution is advised if you decide to back him. 

Norway Cross is interesting up in trip having won at Windsor last time out and Kleo is still unexposed after two wins this season and a LTO fourth in a Listed race at Yarmouth in September.  These two appear to have the best chances of the quartet.

The jumps season is starting to gather momentum and this Saturday sees the Old Roan Chase at Aintree. 

This year’s renewal looks wide open and a case can be made for many including current favourite Uxizandre, Module, Rajdhani Express and last year’s winner Conquisto. 

At the prices I think there is a bit of value in Conquisto to retain his crown if the ground stays good. 

A lot of the higher rated horses in this race will have other targets such as the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Cheltenham festival whereas this looks like Conquisto’s main target. 

He is 4lbs lower than when winning this last year and I think he could well have been laid out for this. 

As an each-way alternative then Astracad could outrun his price, especially as he seems to save some of his better performances for Aintree (including a decent 2nd in this last year). 

In 2013 he ran in a 2 ½ mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham October meeting a week before lining up for this.  He has followed exactly the same path this year and with the Twiston-Davies horses running well he can give each-way backers a decent run for their money. 

If the rain arrives and there is a change in the going to soft then Wishfull Thinking would have to enter calculations.  His last 3 wins have come on heavy, soft and soft going.  He is rated 162 but he won twice off this mark last season.

Saturday Aintree 3.00pm

Conquisto @7/1 (if the ground remains good)

Each-way alternatives: Astracad @14/1 & Wishfull Thinking @14/1 (soft or worse) 

Horse Racing Staking Plans

I read an interesting article recently about why horse racing staking plans don't help when backing horses.

Basically the premise was that if you are backing then you are betting more losers than winners and if you have any type of increasing stakes plan then you will be increasing stakes on losers also and so you will lose more. Or at least your return on investment will go down.

But that got me thinking, because if we are betting odds on shots then we will have more winners than losers, so that means if we increase stakes then we will be staking more on winners than losers. Because there are more of them.

This reminded me of the Odds On Trainer and Odds On Jockey systems we created back in May of this year.

Both of these systems are in profit, but at Starting Prices it is a very modest profit.

Here are the numbers since we created the system

Odds On Trainers = 3.43 points from 108 bets with a 60.19% strike rate
Odds On Jockeys = 3.35 points from 85 bets with a 63.53% strike rate

To be honest I tend to agree with the article and don't like any form of increasing stakes staking plan, but I think a simple percent of bank plan would go well with these strike rates.

If we revisit my article from earlier in the month about longest losing runs we can calculate that we can expect a longest losing run of about 9 with a 60% strike rate from 100 bets.

So I think a 5% of bank staking plan would work well as it allows for 20 losers in a row.

I applied this plan to the Odds On Trainers system and it made a profit of £7.13 from a £100 bank 🙁 level £5 stakes would have made £17.15.

So I did the same with the Odds On Jockeys system and got similar results, using 5% of the bank made a profit of £10.14, but level £5 stakes produced £16.75.

So what's the point here, I think it's just that beware of anything promising riches from a system or tips that use a particular staking plan.

I'm sure I could come up with a staking plan that would make these selections more profitable, but it would probably only work on that particular sequence.

Feel free to discuss this in the comments and I'll investigate any interesting points raised when I get back from my hols.

Today's Selection courtesy of http://bookiesenemyno1.com

7.50 Wolverhampton Old Fashion 11/4

Star Tipping Service

Two quick things for today.

The American Connection system has selections today.

If you don't already have the rules for this then you can get them for free in this video – Click Here http://dailypunt.com/american-conn-vid

Second I've just been reading a review of the Tim Russell service and it sounds pretty promising.

Here's what it said…

Tim Russell – This service was the star of the show during May. He tipped 37 bets, including two doubles, with 21 of them winning with one dead heat, to give a strike rate of 56.75%.

The longest winning run was 4, which included a double, with 3 being the longest losing run. Level stake profit was 19.86 points to advised odds with a BOG bookie, to give the month’s ROI of 53.6%.

Just placing a level stake at Betfair SP would have made a profit of just over 16 points after deducting 5% commission, an ROI of 43.4%.

56% Strike rate and a 43% return on investment, those are strong numbers.

Full details of Tim Russell here – http://dailypunt.com/timrussell

Today's Selection

Southwell 2.50 Epic Voyage – win bet – 9/4 Sky Bet

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