Tag Archives: pundit

Green Up: How To Calculate Your Stakes

The first thing to say is that when this article was first written there was no cash out button on Betfair, so life is easier if you just want to lock in a profit and green up on a horse you've bet, no calculator required. But don't expect to get the best bet possible using the cash out button!

But you should know the maths and how to calculate your own stakes for greening up and that's what we cover on this page.

Yesterday Pete asked how do we calculate our stakes when we have made a trade and we want to green up.

So Pete has backed a horse that is shortening in price and he wants to green up on that selection. IE lock in a profit whatever the outcome.

If for example you were lucky or smart enough to get on Shaws Diamond yesterday morning you could have bet it at around 16.0.

This mare started with a Betfair SP of 6.64. (Easier to find these greening up opportunities in hindsight!!)

So let's say you had a back bet for £10 at 16.0 in the morning and it's just before the off and your horse is now trading at 6.8.

You want to lock in a profit on Shaw's Diamond and want to know what stake to lay at 6.8.

The calculation is to multiply your initial stake times your initial back odds (£10 x 16.0 = £160)

You then divide that by the lay price that you can get (£160/6.8 = £23.52)

Place your lay of £23.52 at 6.8 and your initial bet of £10 has now converted to a guaranteed payout of £12.84.

I mentioned a while back that a lot of serious backers don't wait for a selection to win these days.

Instead they lock in a profit once their horse trades down to a certain level and then lock in the profit.

This method is great for predetermined trades or for when you have time to calculate the stake.

When the pressure is on you might prefer to use lay calculator software that can make the bet in the click of a button 🙂

If you want to it the other way around. So say you have one that's drifting and you lay a tenner at 6.8 and now can back it at 16.0.

Multiply your lay price by your lay stake (£10 x 6.8 = £68) and then divide that by your new odds (£68/16.0 = £4.25).

Back your selection for £4.25 at 16.0 and lock in a £5.46 profit.

A final note: It's easier to find steamers just listen to the pundits and check out free tipsters. Also you risk less money in the initial bet and get a better profit on the green up.

(Green Up: Common parlance for a guaranteed profit on Betfair where every selection shows it will profit if that selection win)

Norfolk Stakes Tip

Flat RacingNick Hardman of Betting Insiders hit the bar with yesterdays selection only managing to finish second.

He's back today with his assessment of the Norfolk Stakes.

You can get Nick's review and selections for the whole card at the Betting School Insiders Club – http://dailypunt.com/betinsiders

2.30pm Norfolk Stakes

Only 9 go to post in this 5f Group 2 sprint and Aiden O’Brien’s The Great War looks the one to beat.

He is 2 from 2 and yet to come off the bridle and any improvement for the quicker ground and he will probably takes this. However, it’s always worth assessing the other runners even with such a strong favourite.

Mukhmal is also 2 from 2, the latter of those wins from a wide draw at Chester and that takes some doing. Baitha Alga is a serious prospect and is dropped in trip here having form figures of 211 all over 6f.

USA raider To Be Determined could be anything but he won’t have been brought all the way over here to simply make up the numbers. Racing Post top speed figures put The Great War and Mukhmal ahead of the other runners and they also top the Racing Post ratings at 111 and 112 respectively.

If you fancy short price favourite The Great War (and a lot of racing pundits do) then take the 11/10 with William Hill and their insurance for second place. I think this might be closer than people think and @6/1 I rate Mukhmal as a lively each-way alternative to the favourite.

Cheltenham Day 3

Double odds on Annie Power.

It's Girls versus Boys today in the big race at 3.20 with Annie Power justifiably favourite and Big Bucks definitely second with the bookies.

If you believe this is a match, as many pundits do, and you can't split them, then the bet must be to take advantage of the money back if Annie wins, mustn't it?

Paddy Power are money back if the SP favourite wins any race (up to £100)

Betfair Sportsbook and Betfred go with the same offer up to £25.

But if you're confident that Annie has the Power then Betfred‘s double SP offer is the one to go for.

If Annie Power wins by over 4 lengths then Betfred will pay double odds. To get this you have to place an SP bet and they will double the SP odds on your return for the first £500 of your stake.

Of course if you don't care who wins you could back any other horse with Paddy Power and lay it off at Betfair, for a small loss whatever the outcome, and if Annie Power wins you will get your stake back at Paddy giving a big profit.

If Annie doesnt win then you make a small loss on the margin between Betfair and bookie prices.

In fact you could do that on every race, and every time a favourite wins you would be a winner.

Today's Selection

Cheltenham 3.20 Annie Power – win bet – Take SP with Betfred

It Can Be Done

It Can Be Done by Kevin BlakeMy copy of ‘It Can Be Done' has just arrived, so that's my weekend reading sorted.

This should be some read if it lives up to the promises made in the blurb.

Sick of the negative stereotypes that surround those that bet on horse racing, The Irish Field's chief racing analyst and At The Races pundit Kevin Blake puts his neck on the line and goes public with his betting methods and reveals the thinking behind every bet he had during the 2013 flat season.

All bets struck have been verified by The Irish Field. In this astonishing book he reveals exactly how he won a small fortune in just six months of betting and tells you how IT CAN BE DONE. Kevin's book runs to 154 pages and is essential reading for everyone involved in the horse racing industry.

I've only just got the book so haven't had time to assess it yet, but the first thing I noticed is that there is a profit or loss statement at the end of each chapter.

So I don't want to spoil the ending but at the same time I couldn't resist skipping ahead to the last chapter.

Kevin Blake made a fully verified £44,500 in 5 months, Very Impressive! Order the book on Amazon

I've also got the Puntology Lesson 1 to read and a load of videos to watch, so it's going to be a busy few days.

Mud Maestro

Another winner from Mud Maestro yesterday and we have selections again today.

13:50:00 Huntingdon 4 Generous Ransom (IRE) – 11/4 Bet 365
15:25:00 Huntingdon 4 Brandon Thomas (IRE) – 2/1 Paddy Power
16:00:00 Huntingdon 3 Secret Edge – 14/1 Paddy Power

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