Tag Archives: race card

Greyhound Baulking

So last time we looked at which dog had the fastest sectional times and was likely to lead.

But times don't tell the full story. There are other factors that effect the run up to the first bend and they can all be grouped together into one question.

That is will the dogs, or at least the one we are interested in, get a clear run to the bend and that's what we'll look at today.

Greyhounds run in a number of distinct styles and track positions.

There are those that want to run close to the rail and those (usually bigger dogs) that prefer to run out wide where the bends are easier to negotiate. Generally speaking when a dog leaves the trap he will aim to get in the position that he prefers.

This will be clearer if I use an extreme example.

If we have a dog that is too big to negotiate the bends near to the rail and needs to run wide around the bends then somewhere between the traps and the first bend he will want to get into the position that is most comfortable.

If that particular dog was starting in trap one then somewhere along the way he will cut in front of, or behind the dogs in traps two to six.

He will most likely bump into or impede some of these other dogs on his way to the bend.

This means that the sectional time that we expect from any other dog that is impeded will not be what we expect it to be. So for example in our screen shot from the last message our trap five may not have had an advantage if he was impeded by others along the way.

To assess the likelihood of any dog getting to the line as quickly as we expect we need to look at its previous races and those of the dogs around it to predict any problems.

Predicting likely trouble from the traps is more of an art than a science but there are clues a plenty in the race card.

First off you want to look for comments in the previous races of the runners. If a runner is slow or very slow away consistently then this is an advantage for the adjacent runners as they will have clear space around them.

Also look for comments regarding a dogs position at the start. You might find an indication that a dog heads for the rails at the start or heads wide at the start EG RlsStt would indicate that the dog in question headed for the inside rail at the start.

When you see comments like this you have to put them into the context of todays race. For example if a dog earns the comment RlsStt but is in trap one today then the comment is not relevant. However if he is in trap two then it may have negative consequences for trap one but be a positive sign for trap three.

Also look at what trap each dog has been running from if a dog is used to trap one but is today in trap three then it may be that he will head to his regular position near the rails.

Use all of the relevant comments and information to build a picture in your mind of how the run to the bend will pan out.

Create your own speed ratings

Over the last few years I have created a number of different ratings for our own use and clients but these have all be form related.

So I guess it was only a matter of time before the question of speed ratings came up.

Some people argue that speed is the only real way to judge a horses chance of winning a race…

But as with all things racing, it is never quite that simple.

Speed of course is related to distance.

It is the time it took the horse to run the race divided by the distance that gives us the speed at which the horse travelled.

Continue Reading

Place Ratings continued…

This week Malcolm Pett continues with the development of his place ratings.

Over to Malcolm…

Last week I introduced my new place rating system which has a number of ratings that you can combine in different ways to find selections to place.

In this article I want to go into a little more detail about the ratings and introduce a further 2 ratings which may help a little more.

One of the new columns is marked “MR” which is a little cocktail of mine made up of various bits of information.

I don’t like runners with a minus (-) figure in this column and generally use it to identify the strong runners in the race.

Place Ratings

The “Rat 1” column is another strength indicator which I usually look at like this:

0 – Very weak and probably a no bet.
1 to 9 still very week but will look at it combined with other figures.
10 and above is best with into the 30’s being very strong.

I never take a “Qlf 1” selection if it is a minus (-) figure.

50 and above is better although if all the runners are less than this, I may consider the selection.

5 or above is my favourite in “Qlf 2”. I really don’t like anything under 4. A score of 7 tends to be very strong.

I never take a 0 in “Qlf 3” and 1’s are not my favourite either and I really like my runner to be top or equalled top whenever possible.

The “Rating” column is a combination of Qlf1 to Qlf 3 and can be used on its own.

A runner with a score of over 100 is certainly one that should be looked at.

The “NS” rating is another new rating and a score of 10 or better points towards an interesting selection.

These are just guides but they give you some idea of how I feel about each column.

It’s actually interesting because I love statistics but I get a lot of enjoyment using the ratings on a new day and trying to figure out which selections I may go for.

It’s so easy when looking at results to imagine you would have or you wouldn’t have used a selection….

…But it is so different when you are going through the race card in the morning and trying to make a decision on what selections to use.

I tend to stick to the top 2 or 3 ranked runners.

I know they don’t always win or place but I feel I get more success from them than I do other runners.

Although I will admit I haven’t really studied outsiders yet.

I generally look through the cards first of all to see if there are any selections that stand out.

Another method that I like to use is to score a runner based on if it has the highest or joint highest number in a column.

Again only sticking to the top ranked runners I will give 1 point for each column where they score highest or joint highest.

3 or higher is worth considering for a place where a score of 5 or 6, I may consider for a win.

Have a look yourself here.

http://greyhorsebot.co.uk/artview.asp?pnum=98

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

The Grey Horse Bot

Today's Selection

1.50 Wetherby Tiptoeaway – 7/1 Bet Victor

Horse Racing Ratings

Grey Horse BotToday we have our third guest column from Malcolm Pett of Greyhorse Bot fame.

—–

It’s strange how you see yourself…

I have always thought of myself as out going sort of person who likes a challenge and is not afraid to try something new.

Although I haven’t done as much as some people, I have had my fair share of adventures including, windsurfing, flying lessons, Scuba diving and sailing. Those are among some of the things I have tried and learned.

But while talking with some friends who I have only known over the last few years they said I was more of a “nerdy” type of guy.

When I quizzed them about why that was their impression of me?

Their answer was simply I am always talking about computers, programming, databases, 3d printers and lately quadcopters….. Nerdy!

Although I thought about defending my own impression of myself I have to admit…

…As the one that my friends tend to ask about anything technical it was going to be a hard battle to win.

So “Nerdy” I am…

To be honest I actually don’t mind the term although I am probably not exactly as some on-line dictionaries explain it…

“A person who is single-minded or accomplished in scientific or technical pursuits but is felt to be socially inept”

Any one that knows me will certainly not call me “socially inept”.

“One obsessed with something specified: a computer nerd.”

Which is probably what my friends were thinking when they used the term.

So when I start talking about System development or statistical modelling then you will probably think the same.

One of the things I love doing as a “computer nerd” is analysing our in house database to find horse racing systems.

Horse Racing Ratings

Lately I have been spending a great deal of time on developing ratings.

This is where you actually assign a number to each runner in a race and then rank them by that number or simply use the rating you have assigned them.

The official rating (OR) which you find on race cards is an example of this…

The fascination is in the way you create the ratings.

A trick you may want to use is to combine a number of ratings from different sources to create what some people refer to as “Power Ratings”.

So you could use the OR, RPR from the racing post and another rating like Sporting Life’s 5 star rating.

Add them altogether and you have ratings from 3 different sources which may point to another winner rather than the favourite.

I would suggest sticking to handicaps when you begin purely because all runners tend to be rated unlike say “maidens”.

I have tried this myself in the past and it can work quite well but the downside is the work involved getting all the information together daily.

I much prefer automation, and because of that I like to build my ratings based on statistical information.

Like…

How often a horse that came 1st place last time out…Wins.

Or

How often a 3 year old Horse wins a handicap.

You can see an example of how you could do it here.

See the ratings

I am a great believer in ratings (not just because I am a nerd) because I feel they give you a consistent way of selecting runners which tends to also give you a consistent strike rate.

The trick is to find the ones that offer value.

Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.

Malcolm

Malcolm Pett is the creator of the Greyhorse Bot which has been automating betting since 2006 – http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

15:05:00 Sandown 1 Alonsoa – win bet 11/8 Boylesport

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