Tag Archives: race distance

Henderson Profit

So every Tuesday Horse Race Base send out an email that details how the systems that you have saved have performed since the day you saved them.

This morning as I do every week I reviewed the list to see what's working and what's not.

The first pleasing result was from the Nicky Henderson Debutant system we published at the beginning of November.

As you'll recall this was sent in by a reader, Derek.

Here are the results since we published the rules…

Runs = 9
Wins = 4
Strike Rate = 44%
Profit at industry SP = 12.25
ROI = 136%

So today's message is short and sweet, keep an eye on this system for more winter profits.

Here's a recap of the rules…

Run at one of these courses: Ascot, Cheltenham, Chepstow, Doncaster, Exeter, Ffos Las, Fontwell, Kempton, Newbury, Sandown, Stratford, Towcester, Uttoxeter, Wincanton

Race Distance is 2m6f or less

Horse is have it's first run and is trained by Nicky Henderson.

It's price is between Evens and 16/1.

It is 6 years old or younger.

And we only bet in the main season between October to March inclusive.

Today's Selection

3.40 Wolverhampton Sioux Chieftain – win bet 11/4 Bet Victor

 

Henderson Debutants System

We have a fellow Daily Punt reader to thank for today's micro system.

Derek posted the following micro system in the comments yesterday.

Here's what Derek said…

I use a micro system for Henderson and it’s based on debutants having first run under UK rules. It is based mainly on NH flat and hurdles. I know you use horseracebase so I’ve just cut and pasted my rules.

Here are the rules in plain English as opposed to HRBish!

Henderson Debutants System

National Hunt races.

Run at one of these courses: Ascot, Cheltenham, Chepstow, Doncaster, Exeter, Ffos Las, Fontwell, Kempton, Newbury, Sandown, Stratford, Towcester, Uttoxeter, Wincanton

Race Distance is 2m6f or less

Horse is have it's first run and is trained by Nicky Henderson.

It's price is between Evens and 16/1.

It is 6 years old or younger.

And we only bet in the main season between October to March inclusive.

Heres the overall performance since 2003.

Henderson Debutants System

And here's the breakdown by year

 

Henderson Debutants Yearly Breakdown

Back to Derek…

You will see that it has performed steadily year after year since 2003.

Henderson repeats the same training routine year after year and this has allowed me to have the above and two other micro systems (handicap hurdles and mares) on the man from severn barrows.

Regards

Derek

Excellent, thanks Derek 🙂

Today's Selection

2.10 Chepstow Jumps Road – win bet – 5/1 Bet 365

More Up In Class

Following on from yesterday's research into a possible new National Hunt system we had one comment (thanks Kenny) with suggestions for further research. So today I'll look into the figures a bit further and see what we can dig up.

First off I looked at race distance for the horses that were up in class for the trainers we selected.

Here's the data I was returned…

Up In Class by Distance Table

 

From this I can see that some distances have proven to be more profitable than others in the past.

But I can think of no logical reason why some distances would have a higher strike rate and more profit. For example why would 2 mile and 1/2 a furlong races be profitable but 2 mile 1 furlong races not be. It's only a hundred meters further!

However it's worth noting that the majority of these race types are 2 mile races, and they are very profitable.

Next I looked at courses, here's the overall table…

Up In Class by Course Table

 

We can see that some are very profitable and some very unprofitable. I'm sure we could think up reasons why some would be more profitable than others, but I suppose what we really should do is to pick just one of our trainers and break down the data for course and distance for just that trainer and see if we can build a profile for these types of runners for each trainer.

So I'll put that on my to do list for next week and we'll see if we can drill down and build a collection of winning profiles.

There's no bets for the original system idea yet, if you missed it you can read it here

Today's Selection

3.30 Uttoxeter Carningli – win bet – evens Bet 365

Goodwood and Galway – Tips

It's an exciting and busy week in the world of racing with the Goodwood Festival this side of the sea and the Galway Festival over in Ireland.

Below I have an angle and selection for you at Goodwood. But first I want to tell you how you can get selections for every race at Galway and Goodwood for just a tenner.

Carl Nicholson's Value Backing Daily service bets through the card at meetings every day and this week they will have selections in every race at Galway and Goodwood.

Each meeting costs 1 Value Backing credit to access and credits can be bought for as little as 59 pence each if bought in bulk. But even at full cost of just £1 each that is only £9 for every race at Goodwood and Galway this week.

Buy your credits or log in here http://valuebacking.com/daily

Now I have an angle and stats from Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders. Nick will be analysing every race at Goodwood this week and these races will be discussed in the Betting School members area – http://bettinginsiders.com.

 

I’ve been looking at the performance of outright favourites at Goodwood and uncovered a useful pointer for the coming festival. Backing favourites blindly is the road to ruin but the performance of 2yo favourites in 5f and 6f non-handicap races at Goodwood shows a terrific strike rate.

Goodwood: 2010 – 2014
Race distance: 5f and 6f (non-handicaps)
Age: 2yo
Outright favourites

Goodwood Outright Favourites

Most of those favourites have been provided by the Hannon yard:

Hannon Favourites

Those Hannon favourites ridden by Richard Hughes show a fantastic strike rate:

Hannon - Hughes Favourites

Hannon and Hughes team up on Beacon in the Molecombe Stakes on Tuesday at 2.30pm. I expect this one to go off as favourite.

Today's Selection

Goodwood 2.30 Beacon – win bet – 10/11 Will Hill

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