Tag Archives: race watching

Greyhound Racing Videos

Before I get into the specifics of finding winning dogs by reading the form I want to just give a bit more background info and talk about a method I used to use when I was full time betting the greyhounds…

Finding the winning greyhound in a graded race is about a lot more than the times it has achieved in the past.

Graded racing is the greyhound equivalent of a handicap race except that greyhounds are not allocated any sort of handicap to slow them down.

Instead they selected to be as closely matched as possible.

The Racing Managers job is to put together races that are as closely matched as possible and to, if you like, create a puzzle for the punters.

On course bookmaking at greyhound tracks is notoriously hard, mainly because when money talks in a small market there are not the opportunities to balance out a book. This is the reason that on course overrounds are huge at greyhound tracks and the reason that the Racing Manager does his best to make the races as decipherable as possible.

Don’t let any of this put you off, though, because winners can be found if you are selective and if the meeting is covered by Betfair then fair prices can be obtained also.

As with any activity knowledge equals power or in this case the more you know the more profitable you can be. The ultimate level of knowledge is to have watched every race ever run by every dog in the race to hand and to know how each has been performing at home. (Many trainers these days have some sort of track at their own kennels).

It is unlikely that you can get inside info on every dog in a race but you can often get to see every race a dog has run. For some years now tracks have supplied videos of all races run to those prepared to pay for the privilege. And the backer who focuses on one particular track can, given time, watch every run of a particular animal. However this is an expensive, although ultimately profitable, approach.

I will briefly touch on the things to watch out for when race watching here and next time we'll get on to a more form based approach.

Racing Videos

When watching greyhound racing in the main what you are looking for is

• Dogs that have had a hard race (bumped and blocked) but still performed well indicating they are faster than the time recorded. They are likely faster than the bare form suggests. If you are in the bookies watching the BAGS racing and you see a dog that had a hard race make a note of it and check the results to see what tine it did and estimate what time you think it should have done,. It may be a good bet next time out.

• How a dog breaks from the traps EG do they run straight to the rail, which would cause trouble for the dog inside them but hand an advantage to the dog on their outside. This info can be useful in assessing the chances of the dog in question and other dogs.

• Are they on the bunny! IE doing everything in their power to get in front and win or did they give up easy & just follow the pack home. Chasers, who are not really up for it will win less than their share of races because they don't like to be in front.

How to Make Money Betting

Today I'm going to do a bit of a brain dump on the ways I make money from betting and hopefully cover off a lot of the questions I get asked regularly.

As always if you have opinions on anything I mention or you totally disagree with what I say then you can express yourself in the comments below.

So I'm only going to talk about horse racing betting today, I'll cover other sports and opportunities another day.

Working out the form on every race: I don't work out form in the traditional sense. I know people who do but it takes over their lives. They can spend hours on a single race and they end up as boring obsessives IMHO.

So what are the alternatives?

To my mind everything that works is a betting system!

I know as soon as I write that some people will be ready to tell me that it's impossible to win with systems.

But there are different types of system and people define them in different ways.

It is unlikely that you will make long term profit with a simple set of 4 or 5 rules that direct you to a selection.

And to my mind if your system is based upon the Racing Post betting forecast then it misses the point of finding value bets totally because you need to be finding horses that the Racing Post has overlooked if you want value.

Although there is a system doing the rounds at the moment based on backing 2nd and 3rd favourites that just keeps making money, time will tell if that can continue.

No when I talk about a system I'm talking in the business sense of a process that points you towards potential winners but that still requires some judgement or common sense.

A good example of the type of thing I'm talking about is Mark Foley's Trainer Trends.

Essentially what Mark is doing is analysing the habits of trainers.

Everybody has habits and we repeat those habits over and over again. If something works for us once we tend to do it again.

So Mark researches these habits from previous years and then looks for similar situations for the same trainer. That's his system and then he adds some judgement (looks at ratings etc) to make sure the horse has some sort of chance to finalise his selections.

I got an email the other day from somebody who had applied some complicated statistical analysis to Mark's selections and the result was that statistically there was a 90% chance that Mark's past performance (60 points up since the start of the flat) would continue.

90%! I don't even understand the maths but I know that means Mark's methods work.

Other things that work…

Identifying horses that have been harshly treated by the handicapper.

There are a lot of horses that just cannot win off of their current handicap. But they are good horses and over time they will return to a mark that they can win off of. And they will surprise a lot of punters and will win off of big prices.

As you know I'm working on a method to identify these via an automated method. I'm not there yet. But if you want to spend the time going through the days handicaps looking for horses that are back to a winning mark you will make money.

Identifying horses that have run well without winning.

Royal Ascot is a recent example of where you could have found future winners. There were horses that were drawn such that they just couldnt win and jockeys that made bad judgements (or were in impossible positions) as to where they should run on the course and ruined the chances of their mounts.

These horses should be identified and followed and profits will follow.

There are some hugely skilled people in race watching and once you are good at this you can land some huge priced winners.

Breeding

You may have noticed that a few of our selections on this page this month were un-raced two year olds. That's because I have done research on which sires produce horses that win at two and under what conditions.

Identifying stallion trends can lead to profits.

Of course if you do all of the above you will run out of time, that's why I rely on other people to find a lot of the selections I bet. And you should to, bet selections from your own methods along with the selections from a few trusted sources.

That's all I have time for today, tell me what you think in the comments.

Today's Selection

Newcastle 5.00 San Cassiano – win bet – 2/1 Bet 365, Bet Victor

 

 

Value Backing Profits

A few months ago I read and interview with Tom Segal, the man behind the Pricewise selections given by the Racing Post.

I was amazed that he didnt really put much work into finding his selections, about 20 minutes. And that the main factors he considered were the jockey and the price.

This seemed far too simple. In my experience people who profit from their racing put in much more time.

I've just read the Value Backing book from Carl Nicholson. I would put Carl on a par with Tom except that with Carl's selections, because he's not featured in the Racing Post, there is not so much risk of the prices disappearing.

Value BackingCarl's book is a quick read with just 100 pages and although he obviously does a lot of race watching in order to create a list of horses that he thinks will run well in the future, his actual selections process does sound quite straightforward.

Here is a quote from Carl's book which summarises his technique…

If you find a horse that likes the going and has recent form on it, has competed in the grade (or higher in some cases) of the race in question before and has run well in it on a recent run.

And has run well over the distance or even better over the same course and distance in its recent past then you will have found a selection then you will have found a selection that should be very competitive in that race.

Now this does not mean that it is going to win all the time, but you are not guessing on the three most important factors of a horse winning any kind of race.

Finding winners, doesnt have to be complicated!

Carl gives out a free selection from his Value Backing Extra service every Friday, to register for that Click Here.

Today's Selection

Leicester 2.40 Ballywatt – win bet 9/4 Paddy Power

Race Reading an Alternative Winner Finding Method

Today we have a guest post from Carl Nicholson who is the brains behind the highly profitable Value Backing tipping service. Value Backing does not have bets everyday but the return on investment is exceptional. Click Here for more details and to join Value Backing. (There is an 8/1 selection today!)

Race Reading an Alternative Winner Finding Method

Race watching and reading is a subject very close to my heart and one that is not that well covered within the racing industry. It can be a hard skill to master, but in this article I hope to give the reader the first building blocks to start on the path to making this subject a vital part of your betting armour and one I hope the readers here on the Daily Punt find some benefit from.

First off you have to try and make sure you have as little in the way of distractions as possible when watching a race or it`s replay. But the most vital part of race watching is turn the sound OFF on your viewing devise. There is nothing worse than listening to commentaries in horse racing. While I am sure most if not all the good folk who do them are decent fellows, the amount of waffle they can produce in a race is mind blowing sometimes and gives the race reader nothing of any value. I sit watching Racing UK and ATR with the mute button firmly on during racing as it gives you a sense of being at the track without the back ground noise.

The most important part of the race is the start

As the saying goes, you cannot win a race from the start. But you can lose it !

This is such a true fact in British flat racing. As some trainers seem unable to get their horse`s to break smartly from the stalls on a consistent level. This should be a basic part of any horses education in my view, but one that is sadly overlooked by so many within the training ranks in this country. One trainer that does excel in this department is Mark Johnston. Even his unraced two year olds are more often than not quick from the stalls and this is the platform as to the reason he has so much success with front runners.

So watch as many starts as you can. This may seem rather odd at first as most people are attuned to just watching the end of a race. But trust me that is the least important part of a race. If you can familiarize yourself as to which trainers horses are good from the stalls you will have earned yourself a great advantage over the general betting public in future winner finding.

The jockeys hands

During the early stage of the race watch where the jockey has his hands on the horses neck. The hands should be placed one on each side of the neck just at the point of where the neck and the main body of the horse join together. The hands should be resting against the neck . This is a sign that the horse is in a good rhythm and has settled well. This should be carried over into the mid race and ideally until about two furlongs from home. Look for which jockey nearest the front of the race in question has the hands in the position outlined above and you will have probably found a horse that will go close to winning that race or another similar race next time out.

So there you go a few little pointers to get the ball rolling for anyone that is new to the subject matter. I hope to cover the subject again at a later date in the year here on the Daily Punt.

Carl Nicholson – Value Backing

Today's Selection

Doncaster 6.50 Specialty

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close