Tag Archives: rides

Odds on Jockey System

At the start of the flat season we put together two systems for finding odds on shots that were more likely to win.

Basically all we did was to look at jockeys that made a profit when following all their short priced rides and for trainers that made a profit with their short priced charges.

At the end of the turf season both systems had enjoyed a high strike rate and a return of investment in the 5 – 8% range.

Not outstanding but good enough for punters who can't tolerate long losing runs.

So I figured we should do the same for the All Weather.

Today the Jockeys.

Back the rides of these jockeys when they start at 6/4 or shorter.

Buick, William Crowley, Jim
Doyle, James Fallon, K
Havlin, Robert Hayes, C D
Hughes, Richard Keniry, L P
Lee, G Moore, Ryan
Morris, Luke Mullen, Andrew
OBrien, J P Probert, David
Queally, T P Spencer, Jamie
Winston, Robert

 

The 2014 results for this group are as follows…

Runs = 388
Wins = 225
Strike Rate = 57.99%
Profit at iSP = 48.26
Return on Investment = 12.4%

Today's Selection
2:40 Taunton Money For Nothing – win bet – 2/1 Bet 365

Systems & Selections from Nick Hardman

We had a nice profit from the Football Forecasts free bets I published yesterday and those that joined the service doubled up their profit with the remaining bets.

Football Forecasts is well worth following and you can try it for a month for £9.99 here http://footballforecasts.uk

Today we are back to the racing with Nick Hardman.

Nick gave us a huge week last time with King George and Welsh National winners and today he has selections for today and tomorrow's racing.

Get more Nick Hardman goodness here Betting Insiders

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Happy New Year to all Daily Punt subscribers and hopefully a few of you were on our Boxing Day selections for the King George and Welsh National.

On to today and a couple of things I want to share with you.

First up is the Henderson/ Geraghty combination at Sandown.

Since 2010 they have teamed up for 25 winners from just 77 rides, producing a level stakes profit of £29.28 at a strike rate of 32%.

2014 in particular was a good time to back the pair as they managed 5 winners from 13 runners and a level stakes profit of £21.92 (38% strike rate).

In addition to that they have a 52% strike rate in non-handicap hurdle races at the course. On Saturday they team up on the following horses at Sandown:

Henderson/ Geraghty, Sandown 3rd January 2015:

1.50 Tanks For That (Handicap chase)
2.25 L’Ami Serge (Grade 1 hurdle)
3.35 Triolo D’Alene (Handicap chase)

Nicky Henderson also has the following entries at the time of writing although it remains to be seen which horses take up their engagement and if they do, whether Barry Geraghty will be on board.

12.40 Mayfair Music (Listed hurdle)
3.00 Royal Irish Hussar, Sweet Deal and Lough Kent

For Friday I have a few qualifiers from some more systems I am road testing. The qualifiers are:

Southwell Friday January 2nd 2015

12.50pm Wrenigham @12/1
1.55pm Beautiful Stranger @11/2
2.30pm Poppy Bond @11/2

Wreningham has not won for an eternity but has course figures 811332 and is 5lbs below his last winning mark. He could reward each-way backers and Joe Fanning is on board.

Beautiful Stranger is trained by Keith Dalgleish a trainer with a superb record with his handicappers at the Midlands course.

Poppy Bond has two wins and three seconds from 9 AW starts and drops back in trip here after travelling well on her last start. She finished a good second on her last try over track and trip in August 2013.

Wolverhampton Friday January 2nd 2015

5.15pm Little Lord Nelson
6.45pm Tsarglas

Little Lord Nelson ran well on tapeta debut last month and is an interesting runner taking a big drop in trip for a trainer with a good record at Wolverhampton.

Stable mate Tsarglas was a last time out winner and there may be more to come with Adam Kirby an eye-catching booking.

As always, if you are having a bet on these selections then please wager sensibly as these systems are very much a work in progress.

Best of luck.

Nick Hardman

Betting Insiders

Nico de Boinville

Mr Nico de Boinville!

There's a lot of interesting articles online about Nico de Boinville, how he came from a privileged background, about the alternate careers he could have had, acting, city banker etc.

But none of that is of much interest to us.

What is of interest though is that Nico de Boinville makes a level stakes profit at industry starting prices if you bet all his mounts to win.

At least he has over the last three years.

The profit is getting a little tighter now because he's had some high profile wins and his ability is better known by the betting public.

His day job, as it were, is with Nicky Henderson and that's where most of his profit has come from with 70 rides since January 2013 and 21 wins for a 44% ROI.

But he has had more outside rides than he has rides for Nicky H so we'll look at all rides in the last two years to see where he's done best.

First up he's an SP loser over the big obstacles but a big winner over hurdles.

It would seem that he is over bet in his Chases, I don't know why that would be because his strike rate is the same but the ROI for Chases is minus 33% and for Hurdles is plus 66%.

The data is scant, but looking at what we have I'd tend towards dropping big field races and so I'm looking at under 14 runners.

The dataset is getting small now with just over 100 runs in the last to years, so I'm going to leave it at that.

We may be a little late to the Nico de Boinville party but I still think this is a jockey we should be following.

And in the past two years if we had backed all his rides over hurdles in fields of less than 14 we would have had the following results…

Runs = 118
Wins = 25
Strike Rate = 21%
Profit at iSP = 118.96
ROI = 100%

Today's Selection

12.25 Southwell – Best Tamayuz – win bet 2/1 Bet 365

Grand National Tip :-o

Can I have more please? More Nick Hardman incites.

Yes it's Friday and this week Nick Hardman (http://bettinginsiders.com) has an improvement to yesterday's Southwell system, an ante post bet for the Grand National and an angle and selections for today's Cheltenham meeting.
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Yesterday we gave you a nice system for Keith Dalgleish’s handicap runners at Southwell. I was playing around with Horse Race Base and I found that we can improve on his already excellent performance at the Midlands track with a system that has a 50% strike rate in the last two years.

Using HRB I found that all bar one of his 19 winners at Southwell were in races at distances between 7f and 2m (his runners are 1-12 over 5f and 6f showing a loss of -£5.50).

In addition I found that Dalgleish has used 15 different jockeys for those 72 rides at Southwell. All the winners have been ridden by just three jockeys:

If we concentrate on 2013 and 2014 then we come up with a system showing a 50% strike rate in the last two years:

Rules: Keith Dalgleish runners at Southwell (AW) over 7f to 2m ridden by Tom Eaves or Simon Walker:

Runners = 30
Winners = 15
Places = 17
Win strike rate = 50%
Place strike rate = 57%
Profit/ Loss = +£62.41

When it comes to readying one for the Grand National, no one does it better than the McCain yard. This season their two Grand National horses appear to be Across The Bay and Kruzhlinin.

Jockey bookings (and finishing places) in the Becher Chase suggest Kruzhlinin is the stable first choice for the Big One. He was sent off at 33/1 to for the Becher Chase where he finished a never nearer, but highly respectable 7th.

I expected to see him at a similar price for the 2015 Grand National and could not believe that Skybet were offering 100/1. About 18 horses finish the Grand National these days and Kruzhlinin has shown that he gets round over these fences, having finished 10th back in April.

Effectively we are looking at 100/1 in an 18 runner race. Unfortunately Skybet have cut him to 50/1 but he is still available at 66/1 with a few firms. When I bet the Grand National I am primarily looking for a sound jumper with course experience and a fairly low weight.

Kruzhlinin ticks plenty of boxes and as apparent stable first string he rates decent ante-post value at 66/1.

Grand National ante-post tip: Kruzhlinin @66/1

Cheltenham’s December meeting kicks off today with the feature race being the Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday and unfortunately my ante-post fancies John’s Spirit and Present View are not lining up.

Paul Nicholls is the most successful trainer at the December meeting in recent times with 14 winners since 2010 (from 50 runners, 28% strike rate).

At the December meeting since 2010 he is 4-10 with his chasers in class 1 and 2 races that have run at Cheltenham 2 or more times.

He has the following entries that fit that profile:

Friday:

12.30pm Vivaldi Collonges (chase debut, likely outsider of the four)

Saturday

12.50pm Virak & Katgary
2.00pm Caid Du Berlais

Good luck if you are having a bet this weekend.

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