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Breeders Cup Tips

It's Friday and so we have our regular look at the weekend racing from Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman )

We had another decent return last week with Kleo faring best of our Cumani runners at Doncaster, winning her race at 11/2. Wishfull Thinking (adv 14/1) was one of our each-way alternatives in the Old Roan Chase with the caveat his chances would increase with the arrival of any rain.

As it happens he bolted up on good ground with not a drop of rain in sight. This Friday we will take a look at the Breeders’ Cup and we have a selection from the Charlie Hall Chase meeting from Wetherby.

To me the Breeders’ Cup is one of those meetings where a small wager can increase your enjoyment of watching it, rather than it being a serious punting mission like Royal Ascot or the Cheltenham Festival. The main action takes place on Saturday but one horse I like runs on Friday in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Much is often made of the European runners being better on turf than their American counterparts but on this occasion I am siding with the home filly Lady Eli. Unbeaten in two starts she has had the same prep as her trainer’s previous winner in this race, namely Maram in 2008, including a win in the recognised trial race The Miss Grillo Stakes at Belmont. She has the finishing kick to go close here. Osaila looks the best of the Europeans.

Goldencents looks to have a massive chance in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and I am happy to have him onside at 5/4. He has most things in his favour here and for once I will side with a favourite as he bids to defend his crown.

Breeders Cup Friday
Juvenile Fillies Turf – Lady Eli @13/2
Dirt Mile – Goldencents @5/4

On Saturday Silviniaco Conti should win the Charlie Hall Chase in what is an above average renewal, but 5/4 is plenty short enough for what is essentially a prep run.

Earlier on the card I will have a couple of quid on Aurore D’Estruval in the mares hurdle. She is a course and distance winner and acquitted herself well in two subsequent starts at Haydock (subsequent Fred Winter winner Hawk High tailed off in last place) and at Aintree when 5th in a Grade 1 won by Guitar Pete. This is a Listed race and back against her own sex she can go well.

Back to the USA and I make Dank the standout bet in the Filly and Mare Turf. She has been kept in training this season with this race her prime objective. Not only will she get her firm ground but she will once again have the services of Ryan Moore, undoubtedly the best jockey on the planet right now. Add to that the positive vibes from the Stoute yard about her well-being and she has to be top of most people’s shortlist. I make her my NAP for Saturday’s action.

Elsewhere, Daredevil could take some pegging back in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and 3/1 looks a fair price.

Saturday

Wetherby 2.05pm – Aurore D’Estruval

Breeders’ Cup
Filly and Mare Turf – Dank @9/4
Juvenile – Daredevil @3/1

Haydock Tips

Today we have a guest post from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders.

Nick shares Haydock tips and pointers for this evening and tomorrow afternoon.

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There is some excellent racing at Haydock this weekend as the course holds its three day meeting with the highlight being the Lancashire Oaks on Saturday. Before I get to that race, here are a few pointers for a trainer with an excellent record at the track.

Tom Dascombe

Tom Dascombe has had 41 winners from 181 runners at the course since 2010 at a strike rate of 22.65% and a level stakes profit of £63.62. Over 1 in 3 of his runners reach the frame with 67 placed horses from those 181 runners at a place strike rate of 37.02%.

21 of his winners have come in non-handicap races (from 81 runners) for a level stakes profit of £54.21 at a strike rate of 24%. Of greater significance is the fact he has had 4 runners in non-handicaps at the course this season and they have finished 4111.

His entries at Haydock over the weekend in non-handicap races are:

Stec (Friday 8.15pm) 7f maiden
The Character (Friday 8.45pm) 1m maiden
Bear Behind (Saturday 2.20pm) 6f conditions race
Wall Of Sound (Saturday 2.55pm) Group 2 1m 4f

His handicappers are 20-93 (SR 21.51%, £9.41 level stakes profit) since 2010 at the course. In the last 2 years those figures read 17-69 (SR 24.64%, £17.91 level stakes profit). In 2014 he has saddled 4 winners from 14 runners in handicap races at Haydock.

However, if we remove those runners who went off bigger than 16/1 he has a 50% strike rate (4 winners from 8 runners) and a level stakes profit of £21.50. His handicap entries over the weekend are:

Captain Whoosh (Friday 6.45pm) 5f hcap
Celestial Vision (Friday 7.15pm) 2yo hcap (nursery)
Dreams Of Reality (Saturday 1.45pm) 5f hcap
Capo Rosso (Saturday 4.40pm) 7f hcap

Any of Dascombe’s horses ridden by Richard Kingscote are worth a second look. They form a great partnership and have teamed up for 31 winners already this season. This partnership has produced figures of 211311 in their last six rides. At Haydock in 2014 they are 4-10 for a level stakes profit of 16.88pts.

Lancashire Oaks

It is no secret that John Gosden is having a terrific season and his fillies in particular have been in cracking form.

When competing against their own sex, Gosden’s fillies are 13-82 to a level stakes profit of £9.90.

A win strike rate of 15.85% does not stand out as being exceptional, but on closer order you will find that 45 of those 82 runners finished in the places at a huge strike rate of 54.88%.

If we dig a little deeper we find that all 13 winners competed in non-handicap races (from 67 runners). Again, a massive 41 of those 67 fillies filled the places at a place strike rate of 61.19%.

With the Lancashire Oaks in mind, we can look specifically at the race distance 1m 4f.

This season he has sent out 9 fillies over 1m 4f (non-handicaps) and they have finished 331112130.

That’s 4 winners and 8 placed horses from 9 runners.

He runs Pomology and Sultanina in this year’s renewal and both can be given solid chances.

Pomology seeks to defy an absence of 328 days but cannot be discounted, especially as her trainer has won this race 5 times since 1997 and has won 3 of the last 11 renewals.

John Gosden also trained Place Rouge to win this on her debut in 2003, so the lengthy absence of Pomology is considered a slight concern rather than a big negative.

Sultanina and Freedom’s Light finished 1-2 in the Pinnacle Stakes over C&D in May with Silk Sari, Special Meaning and Astonishing in behind.

Freedom’s Light won a Listed race over 12f next time out to frank that form.

Sultanina was unraced as a 3yo but is 2-2 as a 4yo and is open to bags of improvement having only her third run. This is a better race than the two she has won but she is largely unexposed.

There have been seven 3yo and seven 4yo winners since 1997 and the 3yo horses get a hefty allowance of 13lb. However, only one 3yo has managed to win in the last 7 renewals.

The sole 3 year old lining up here is Richard Hannon’s Lustrous. She loved the step up to 1m 4f when finishing a staying-on second to Bracelet in the Group 2 Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot.

As long as that has not taken too much out of her she should have a great chance here in receipt of 13lbs.

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Dr Nick Hardman is a regular contributor of winning systems analysis and tips at the Betting School Insiders Club. Find out more about the Betting School Insiders Club here

http://dailypunt.com/betinsiders

Royal Ascot Selections – Day 2

Royal Ascot Selections – Day 2

As promised we have another Royal Ascot Selection from Nick Hardman today.

Yesterday the free tips we posted finished 1st at even money and 3rd at 12/1, so hopefully you had a few pennies on those. Nick went on to make 4.4 points across the whole card.

If you want all of Nick's selections today you can find them in the Betting School Insiders Club and if you're not already a member you can join here.

http://dailypunt.com/betinsiders

Today the first race is a tougher challenge…

2.30pm Jersey Stakes

From a betting perspective, Day 2 could not get off to a trickier start than a 7f race of 23 runners. As always, cases can be made for many so I will be using cautionary stakes on this one for sure.

At the head of the market are French Guineas 4th Muwaary @11/2 and Irish Guineas 3rd Mustajeeb @13/2.

Both will go close if they improve on those runs. Of the two I prefer Muwaary solely because John Gosden’s horses are running so well and he is the preference of jockey Paul Hanagan.

Aiden O’Brien has won the last two renewals and has three entered here, but they all need to improve on what they have shown this year to get involved.

However, before writing them off it is worth noting that Ishvana won this for O’Brien @20/1 in 2012 when largely unfancied.

Big Time @16/1 for John Joseph Murphy is interesting on his juvenile form (2nd in a Group 2 and 2nd in a Group 1 after winning his maiden).

He made his reappearance in the Irish Guineas and a mile seemed to stretch his stamina.

He has something to find with Mustajeeb on that running but gets 3lb here on that rival and he may well strip fitter for the run.

The horse that beat Big Time in those Group races was Sudirman. He came up short in Group 1 company after that and was a bit disappointing on his reappearance, managing just 4th in a Listed race.

He is another who will improve for the run but all of his winning has been done over 6f. He does rate a big danger if seeing out the trip and 20/1 is tempting.

Elsewhere, Parbold has become expensive to follow since his 2nd in the Coventry at the Royal Meeting last year. His conqueror last time out was That Is The Spirit who made it 3 from 3 in doing so. He has made all in 2 of those wins (and led from halfway in the other) and he might well be taken on for the lead here.

If that happens it would be no surprise to see Parbold reverse the form with Ryan Moore on board.

All in all a fascinating race and really one to watch rather than getting heavily involved in.

If pushed for a tip I would side with Muwaary @11/2 (I wouldn’t want to go any shorter than that) and Big Time at an each-way price of 16/1 (Bet365 go 4 places but offer just 11/1 on Big Time).

Don’t be surprised to see Sudirman @20/1 and Parbold @18/1 outrun their prices.

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