Tag Archives: scale

Strike Rate Vs Odds

Today we have a guest post from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

As you are probably well aware making money from gambling is about 2 things…
Strike rate and Average winning odds.

As strike rate goes up average winning odds can come down.

You tend to end up with two choices.

Low strike rate but high odds winners. This probably represents the real value end of the scale where you are picking runners that most people think have very little chance of winning.

Most of the time they are correct but every so often one comes in…

And normally at a very good price.

The strike rate of these systems is generally between 10 and 20%.

If you run a system like this then it’s probably better to use Betfair because the odds on outsiders can often be far better than you will find at the bookies.

Look out for long losing runs because these normally spell disaster for the un-aware punter.

Then we have the high strike rate but low odds end of the spectrum.

Here you are likely to be on the first or second favourite and value is going to be a real issue.

Strike rate should be in the high 30’s but even better if you can get to 40% or more.

Keeping an eye on your average winning odds is going to be critical and you will probably have to watch the exchanges and the bookies or even use a BOG bookie to get the best prices.

Your job here will probably be to match or beat SP as often as you can.

The perfect scenario would be somewhere in between the two but it is unlikely you will find one system that will have a reasonable strike rate with value bets.

Probably the best way to achieve this would be to use “Nano” systems.

On their own these types of systems have very few selections but tend to have strike rates of 20% or more.

Combining a number of them together means you have a better chance of getting a reasonable strike rate and achieving value.

It does mean you have more systems to follow but the long term profit could be worth the effort.

Over at the Grey Horse Bot website we test all these ideas.

At the moment we have a couple of tests looking to achieve strike rates of 40% and 50%.

As already discussed you will find the prices on the winners can be quite short but it can be surprising when you get the odd higher priced winner.

We are also running long term tests on system that have a much lower strike rate.
And you can see very clearly from the results that these types of systems have long losing runs and often only get into profit because of big priced winning selections.

When you decide on what type of system(s) to follow you have to ask yourself can you take the losing runs or are you prepared to look for the best price.

Otherwise a bunch of “Nano” systems may be the best thing for you.

Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.


Malcom Pett is the creator of the Grey Horse Bot http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

6.45 Kempton Gibeon – win bet – 7/2 Bet 365

Lay Lay Lay the Bot

Today is one of those days when I don't have anything in particular to tell you, so I figured it's a good day to update you on the Daily Punt Lays bot/portfolio.

I'm now at the stage where I have software that will automatically place the lays for me, but also I have software that will extract selections from my daily Horse Race Base systems email and will upload them to the server for all bot users to download.

What that means is that it doesn't really matter how many selections I have each day because it is no extra work whether I have 2 selections or 200!

So my plan is to scale up and add more lay systems to the portfolio.

As long as all the systems make a profit then adding more volume will increase overall profits.

(By the way you can use this bot and get my selections each day for £20 – here)

So far we have the Lay Debutants and the Lay Handicap selections and I've just added the Irish bumpers that I mentioned earlier in the week.

This morning I've been researching horses in handicaps that have won their last handicap and placed in the race prior to that.

Here are the figures…

Races – 373
Wins – 39
Strike Rate – 10.46
Backing Loss – 142.25

Horse Race Base's Betfair price simulation suggests a lay profit of 88 points per year.

So I'll be adding this system to the mix from tomorrow.

By the way, if you run a tipping service and are interested in providing auto betting software for your selections, drop me a mail and I'll pass it on to the boss.

Lay Debutants

12:40:00 Leicester 1 Vivaccio (FR)
15:40:00 Kempton 12 Why Not Now
16:40:00 Kempton 7 Izbushka (IRE)
17:10:00 Kempton 3 Galuppi

Today's Selection

6.10 Kempton Clerks Choice (IRE) – win bet – 5/2 Bet 365, Paddy Power

Scoring For Profit – Free Access

Today I have details of changes to the Scoring For Profit football laying service.

And you can get 6 weeks free access (No credit cards or Paypal required)

You may know the story of Scoring For Profit and Gary Fonzy, but to recap…

Gary started off his betting career arbing between bookies football coupons and Betfair.

But when he tried to scale up his betting he found that he couldnt make enough profit from his coupons method.

It was then that he created the Scoring For Profit system that involved laying in the football correct score markets.

For the new season Gary has now added Both Team To Score bets to his method and to demonstrate the profitability he is offering 6 weeks free access to the service.

To get involved just head over to http://scoringforprofit.com enter your name and email address, click the button and you're in 🙂

I've just had a look and there are no bets today but there will be tomorrow.


By the way yesterdays winner was from the Handicap Debutants System.

Today's Selection

3.20 Newbury Statutory – win bet – 2/1 Bet 365, Bet Victor

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