Tag Archives: shorter distances

Create your own speed ratings

Over the last few years I have created a number of different ratings for our own use and clients but these have all be form related.

So I guess it was only a matter of time before the question of speed ratings came up.

Some people argue that speed is the only real way to judge a horses chance of winning a race…

But as with all things racing, it is never quite that simple.

Speed of course is related to distance.

It is the time it took the horse to run the race divided by the distance that gives us the speed at which the horse travelled.

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Draw Bias

Beverley is a course that is known for it’s draw bias.

And my research does confirm that there is an advantage to a low draw (1 or 2) especially at 5 furlongs.

But there has been lots of discussion and attempts to balance this out over the years.

So although there is an advantage and it is a positive if the horse you fancy is drawn 1 or 2 I don’t see a profit from simply following low drawn horses here.

As with all these things you’re more likely to find profit where others don’t look.

While looking at the course layouts for todays meetings I noticed that at Hamilton the 1 mile and 1 mile 1 furlong starts are on a bend.

Often a draw bias comes about as a result of the way the water drains from the course and it is hard to correct. And is usually believed to only effect shorter distances.

But to me the draw advantage that gets overlooked is when it effects longer distances and that usually happens when the starting stalls are on a bend and a lead is an advantage.

So I’ve looked at the figures for Hamilton.

If you just backed runners from stall 1 over 1 mile or 1 mile 1 furlong then over the last 11 years you would have made an 8% return on investment at industry SP.

I suspect those profits would be much larger at Betfair Sp because there are some big priced winners in the list.

The strike rate for stall 1 over these distances has fluctuated greatly over the years and I have an old Raceform book from 2004 that declares that high stalls are favoured over these distances.

So it might be that work has gone on to change the bias and it has switched.

But looking at 2012, 2013 and this year shows a huge profit for stall 1 with a 70% ROI and a strike rate up to 20%.

So this seems to be a current bias and one worth taking note of.

Today’s races at the distance are 2.40 & 3.40.

Today’s Selection

Hamilton 2.40 Incurs Four Faults – win bet – 7/2 Bet Victor

Aintree Grand National Meeting Tips

Today we have an interesting article from Mark Foley of Trainer Trends about the Aintree Grand National meeting that kicks off tomorrow.

But before we get to the article I just want to tell you about the big race trends service that Mark is offering for the three days of the Aintree festival.

If you joined Mark for Cheltenham then you will know that he had a very profitable Cheltenham. The highlight for me was using the Free £50 bet that Bet Victor gave on Champagne Fever at 7/1.

Mark is doing exactly the same for Aintree for just £14.99 for the 3 days – Click Here to secure a place for this.

Ok, over to the article which will hopefully steer you away from some losers…

How does Cheltenham form hold up at Aintree?

Backing favourites isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, but knowing whether a favourite is strong or weak is fundamental to having a bet. It’s impossible to ignore Cheltenham form when it comes to forming the market at Aintree and the bookies have often got it horribly wrong, horses that looked invincible at Cheltenham a few weeks earlier have looked a shadow of themselves at Aintree.

In the past 10 years you would have made a small 3% loss following the 147 Aintree favourites who earned their market position on the back of their run at the Cheltenham festival. Two completely different tracks; left handed; right handed; undulating; flat; stiff finish; flat finish, long run in. So is it worth backing a Cheltenham horse that goes off as favourite at Aintree?

It would have taken a brave man to oppose the following horses after their scintillating performances at Cheltenham Denman (twice; Evens and 5/4); Imperial commander 11/8; Master Minded 2/5; Albertas Run 6/4; Kauto Star 4/7. They all got turned over at Aintree of course despite their short prices, so how do you find a reliable favourite at Aintree?

The first point to note is that runners that finished in the first 2 at Cheltenham tended to do well at Aintree; add in the runners that didn’t finish their race at the festival but still went off as favourites and the results are transformed.

All but 7 of the 43 winners either finished in the first two at Cheltenham or failed to finish and as the table below illustrates they were profitable to follow:

Grand National Aintree Trends


Impressive figures and following such runners would have seen you make a profit in all but 2 of the last 9 Aintree festivals. 

The next salient point is that the favourites over the shorter distances had the best record; it would appear that the speedsters don’t have quite as much taken out of them as the runners over longer distances. Seventeen winners from only 28 runners for a 107% return in races over 16 and 16 ½ f.

Aintree Favourites

The following trainers did particularly well:

(Runners who went off as favourites at Aintree having run at the Cheltenham Festival).

Aintree Profitable Trainers

The above four trainers have provided over 50% of the 47 winning favourites who also ran at the Cheltenham festival in the past 10 years and Nicky Henderson’s record in recent years has been particularly impressive.

In conclusion, following the runners who went off as favourites at Aintree who finished in the first 2 (or failed to finish) at the Cheltenham festival; runners over the shortest distances and runners trained by the above trainers proved to be reliable favourites and were profitable to follow.

All the best Mark.

Today’s Selection

Wetherby 4.40 Musnad – win bet – evens Paddy Power

In Play Dobbing

Do you do any Dobbing?

I only heard the term the other day, but the process that it describes I have been thinking about for some time.

There are people making a lot of money from Dobbing and I would like a piece of that action.

So what is it, this is Dave Renham’s introduction to a new thread he is writing over at the Betting School Insiders Club.

Dobbing is a term I came across a few years back – I am not sure where it originates from, but essentially a ‘DOB’ means ‘double or bust’. Essentially if we win, we double our original stake, if we lose we ‘bust’ or lose our stake. I am concentrating on the idea of dobbing by utilizing the in running betting markets. It may be easier to explain by giving you an example:

Let us imagine you back a horse pre race at 8.0 for £10; in order to create a potential DOB you try and lay at half the odds for double the stake – so a lay at 4.0 for £20.

If the horse hits 4.0 or lower in running, your lay bet will be matched and regardless of the result you will win £10 (less commission).

Here is the simple maths behind the two potential winning outcomes – if the horse goes onto win the race you get £70 returned from the ‘back’ part of the bet; you lose £60 on the ‘lay’ part of the bet giving you that £10 profit; if the horse does not go onto win, you lose your £10 stake from the ‘back’ bet, but gain £20 from the lay stake – again giving you a £10 profit. Of course if the lay part of the bet is not matched you will lose your £10.

Dave is running a live trial in the Betting School Insiders Club trying to develop a system for finding these horses that shorten in running.

I’ve been watching a lot of races recently trying to garner ideas for my own Dobbing strategy.

My first idea was to look at horses that are stepping up in distance. I figure these types will be prominent early because they are used to shorter distances and a faster pace.

So I’ve been looking at these and then looking through their history to see how they traded in play at the longer distance previously.

It’s too early to tell whether I’m on to anything but if I make my millions I’ll drop you a note before I retire.

If you’ve got ideas for an in play Dobbing strategy then drop me a note or make a comment.

Today’s Selection courtesy of Trainer Trends

7.30 Beverley Lucky Money Hills 2/1 with Hills/Skybet  Win Bet

 

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