Tag Archives: shorter races

Create your own speed ratings

Over the last few years I have created a number of different ratings for our own use and clients but these have all be form related.

So I guess it was only a matter of time before the question of speed ratings came up.

Some people argue that speed is the only real way to judge a horses chance of winning a race…

But as with all things racing, it is never quite that simple.

Speed of course is related to distance.

It is the time it took the horse to run the race divided by the distance that gives us the speed at which the horse travelled.

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Pontefract Draw Bias

Last year I wrote about the Pontefract draw bias and a lot of readers made money from this observation.

Some readers were quick to tell me that the draw was not significant in longer races, but the figures said otherwise.

Since then, I was pleased to read in Kevin Blake's It Can Be Done book that he considers the draw to be more important in longer races.

While there is a common view that the draw matters less and less the longer the race distance, that isn't necessarily the case. Indeed, getting caught wide from a poor draw in a long-distance race is often more costly in longer races than shorter races, as more turns have to be negotiated. Kevin Blake – It Can Be Done

Today there is racing at Pontefract so I thought it a good time to see if the bias is still prevalent.

Here's the figures from Horse Race Base for 2013 and 2014.

Pontefract Draw Bias

Click to enlarge

This shows that the Stall 2 strike rate is much higher than the other stalls, although there is a higher return on investment from Stall 3, but that's a pricing thing, we'll focus on more winners.

For the breakdown of race distance I've looked at data for 2011, 2012 & 2013.

Pontefract Draw Bias by Distance

Click to enlarge

There has been just one meeting so far this year, so 6 races and 2 winners for Stall 2 and a whopping 250% return on investment.

It seems likely that the bias prevails and that you should bet accordingly…

Today's Selection 

Pontefract 3.10 Colonel Mak – eachway bet – 15/2 Bet 365, Bet Victor, Sky Bet

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