Tag Archives: skill

11/2 All Weather Bet

Today I've grabbed you a selection from Gary Poole's Bookies Enemy No 1 service.

Gary is an ace at spotting the value in the early markets and locking in value for himself and his members.

This selection was given out last night when it was generally available at 13/2, since then the bookies have woken up to the chances of this one and shortened it in to 11/2 where it still represents a bit of value.

Gary is a race watcher, an activity that requires great skill and a lot of time and that's what he dedicates his life to.

He is also a player of multiple bets and has bagged some huge profit days with his Trixies, Trebles and Doubles.

In fact he has a Trixie on his service today with this selection and two others priced at 8/1 and 9/1.

If this one comes off it will win £900 for every pound staked.

You can get immediate access to the other two selections when you join Gary at http://bookiesenemyno1.com

Here's the bet I've grabbed for you today with Gary's reasoning…

3.20 Wolverhampton:Hernando Torres

Ran an eye-catching race here two starts back in a better race than this on his first start since June and a repeat of that effort here should see him go very close.He has since had an outing over hurdles which will insure he's primed since that October run and although he's only run 2 of his 34 races he is still relatively unexposed on the all-weather and last run over C&D suggested there is plenty more to come.

Creating Betting Systems

Today we have a regular weekly catch up with Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

Betting systems really fascinate me especially horse racing ones.

It’s probably the main reason I have been creating them for over 12 years.

There are plenty of ideas about how to find winners (or losers) and creating systems is not always the most popular solution.

Many people believe the only way to actually pick a horse to follow in a race is to judge it against every other runner. Look for reasons why one selection has a better chance than all the others.

Although I do agree with this idea it’s not an easy thing to do and those that are most successful at it have spent a lot of time analyzing races and honing their skills.

Systems still take time to research, create and test but once you find something that appears profitable it can become a lot easier and quicker to get your daily selections.

And as I prefer automation it stands to reason this will be my favourite way of finding winners.

Anyway I thought over the next 3 articles I would give you an insight into how this “nerds” brain works (hmm not to sure you want to know) when he is trying to develop a system.

The first thing you are going to need is results.

There are plenty of sites about which allow you to analyse past data to see if you can find a way of picking winners.

Even our Grey Horse Bot members have access to our own growing archive of 230,000 + runs.

I have probably mentioned this before (I tend to repeat myself) that you must remember when you use past data it may contain information that you wouldn’t have known about until either in-play or after the event.


I tend to mention “number of runners” as an example.

Until the actual off, we have no way of knowing how many runners actually started the race.

SP and BSP are not available until in-play so you can only use these as a guide to the profitability of a system.

Until you actually test the system you will have no idea if you can actually get anywhere near to the profit you were expecting.

One of the questions I tend to get a lot is 
“Where do you start? How do you come up with the ideas for research?”

It’s a good question…

I tend to have 3 main ways of finding an idea.

Other peoples ideas.
Things I have noticed
Rating systems.


Other peoples ideas

Nope I don’t mean steal someone else’s system. 

What interest me is that sometimes in a forum, blog post, article or just during a conversation someone may mention a small triaval fact like…

“Beaten favourites do well when…”

Or

“Have you ever looked at 2 year olds on a AW running for the first time”

Or

“I have heard 4th LTO doing really well at this course….”

You get the idea.

I normally write these ideas down and check them out later.

Normally you end up finding out that there isn’t any profit in the idea or that there was just a trend that someone may have noticed that didn’t last long.

In next weeks article I will look at the other 2 points and

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
“The Nerd”

Find out more about the Greyhorse Bot at http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

6.40 Yarmouth Authorized Too – win bet – 15/8 Bet 365, Paddy Power

Goodwood System

You know I'm a fan of systems.

Mainly that's because I can follow some strict rules and the system can make betting decisions for me.

Most of the systems I create can be automated by a racing database and once I've created them then the selections are just sent to me each day.

But I'm aware that I could probably be making more money if I used systems that were not created from data that is available to everybody.

In the old days I would spend hours, days even weeks back checking a system idea with my old copies of the Racing Post or Sporting Life.

And in some ways winning was easier then, because by putting in the hours with old papers I was doing something that was too much effort for many punters.

And that is always the way. If you put in more work, or if you use data that is not available to the betting public then you are more likely to win because you can exploit an angle that is not being used by the majority of bettors.

Another way to create winning systems is from years of experience and record keeping of winning bets.

Analysing past records can show you where your profit comes from and allow you to simplify the selection method and boil it down into a winning system.

There will always be more profit in a system like this because it is bloody hard and relies on the initial skill to select winners and on the patience to analyse years of real bets.

I've been reminded of all of this recently by Carl Nicholson of Value Backing who has put together a selection of what he is calling Pro Grade Betting Systems (including a Glorious Goodwood system)

You can read all about them here www.valuebacking.com/99-of-betting-systems-are-doomed/

Today's Selection

Galway 7:15 Expensive Taste – each way bet 12\1

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