Tag Archives: software

Green Up: How To Calculate Your Stakes

The first thing to say is that when this article was first written there was no cash out button on Betfair, so life is easier if you just want to lock in a profit and green up on a horse you've bet, no calculator required.

But you should know the maths and how to calculate your own stakes and that's what we cover on this page.

Yesterday Pete asked how do we calculate our stakes when we have made a trade and we want to green up.

So Pete has backed a horse that is shortening in price and he wants to green up on that selection. IE lock in a profit whatever the outcome.

If for example you were lucky or smart enough to get on Shaws Diamond yesterday morning you could have bet it at around 16.0.

This mare started with a Betfair SP of 6.64. (Easier to find these green up opportunities in hindsight!!)

So let's say you had a back bet for £10 at 16.0 in the morning and it's just before the off and your horse is now trading at 6.8.

You want to lock in a profit on Shaw's Diamond and want to know what stake to lay at 6.8.

The calculation is to multiply your initial stake times your initial back odds (£10 x 16.0 = £160)

You then divide that by the lay price that you can get (£160/6.8 = £23.52)

Place your lay of £23.52 at 6.8 and your initial bet of £10 has now converted to a guaranteed payout of £12.84.

I mentioned a while back that a lot of serious backers don't wait for a selection to win these days.

Instead they lock in a profit once their horse trades down to a certain level and then lock in the profit.

This method is great for predetermined trades or for when you have time to calculate the stake.

When the pressure is on you might prefer to use software that can make the bet in the click of a button 🙂

If you want to it the other way around. So say you have one that's drifting and you lay a tenner at 6.8 and now can back it at 16.0.

Multiply your lay price by your lay stake (£10 x 6.8 = £68) and then divide that by your new odds (£68/16.0 = £4.25).

Back your selection for £4.25 at 16.0 and lock in a £5.46 profit.

A final note: It's easier to find steamers just listen to the pundits and check out free tipsters. Also you risk less money in the initial bet and get a better profit on the green up.

(Green Up: Common parlance for a guaranteed profit on Betfair where every selection shows it will profit if that selection win)

Get your daily selections in half the time…

Today we have an article from Malcolm Pett who wants to tell you about a great little tool that will help you with your system selection.

======

Hi there…

I was wondering…

…How much time do you spend trawling through race cards to pick out your daily selections?

If you’re like most people, probably a lot!

If you are running one or more systems that require you to select runners by their form then unless someone is sending you the daily selections, I guess you have to go through all of them daily.

And sometimes more than once…

Which can take a lot longer than the 10 minutes you were expecting.

When you’re in a rush it can seem to take forever and it can be quite frustrating and let’s be honest a little boring.

I know how you feel

In fact I felt the same way.

I remember one of the ones I have followed…

“Go through all the meetings and select a runner if…”

The race is a class 4 or 5


There are 10 or less runners


It’s not a Maiden


1st last time out


Ran within 45 days.


Horse is a Gelding”

That was an easy one!

But as I am a little lazy I decided to create a tool…

…So you can simply find your daily selections with a touch of a button.
(or a click)

Yeah it is software but it real easy to use.

And what’s really good is that you only have to use it once for each system.



You just tell the tool what you’re looking for by ticking some boxes and then once you are finished you are given a link.

This link can then be used to get your daily selections automatically in any browser.

It’s a “http:” link just like the one you used to get to this page.

But instead of seeing lots of writing and pretty pictures you get your daily selections instead.

How cool is that?

I know you may be thinking…

…”Are yeah but will it do xxxxxx?”

Well it has around 60 different race and form filters.

So even if it can’t exactly meet your criteria, it will at least save you some time by narrowing down your selections using some of the filters.

The link it creates can also be used with the Grey Horse Bot.

If you want to know more pop over to the Grey Horse Bot website and look at the new “Bonuses” section.

It is number 3 on the list.

Thanks
Malcolm

The Grey Horse Bot – http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

2.25 Ludlow Gorsky Island – win bet – 9/2 Bet Victor Bet365

Betfair Trader

Today I am mostly reading about trading.

There is an interesting article in this months SmartSigger (Get your 1st month free here http://dailypunt.com/smartsig ) about the different types of Betfair trader and what sort of trader you might be.

As well as detailing different trading strategies, it also suggested a super fast trading tool which is free to use 🙂

I haven't tried it yet, but it definitely sounds like it is worth a play.

Here are some of the key features…

– Unbeatable speed – super fast trading on Betfair

– Grid Interface – single click trading, compact Betfair-style trading grid

– Ladder Interface – full depth of market, single click trading, queue position and built-in robot

– Position In Queue (PIQ) – provides a real-time estimated PIQ, arguably the most important and unique feature of our ladder!

– Automated Trading Robot – included is a unique Betfair bot, watch it trade on the ladder for you!

– Multi-Market – trade several different markets simultaneously

– Managed Markets (Guardian) – works in the background to gather data from multiple ‘managed' markets and maintain offset bets

– Tick Offset – automatically sends an opposing bet, after you get matched

– Stop Loss – automatically limits your losses. Trailing Stop Loss can also protect profits

– Racing Autopilot – it can automatically select each horse race and move forward
Greening (Cash-out) – a single click to lock in your profit (or loss) regardless of the outcome

– Advanced Charts – possibly the most comprehensive integrated charting available in any Betfair application

I think the most interesting and important feature for the trader is the advanced charts!

You can get the software here http://www.cymatic.co.uk/

If you've used it before I'd love to have your feedback in the comments.

Today's Selection

8.45 Kempton Four Cheers – eachway bet – 14/1 Bet Victor

Creating Betting Systems II

Today we have a regular weekly catch up with Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

In last weeks article I discussed how I prefer to create systems from archived data and also discussed how I come up with research ideas.

Lets continue…

Things I have noticed.

When you analyse horse racing as much as I do then sometime you will just notice something that looks interesting.

Because I also write the software that analyses our own archive I have to do a lot of testing to make sure a new feature works how it should.

During this testing I will sometimes find something profitable. So I will put it in my “scratch file” to look at when I have more time.


To be honest I am not always sure where some of these ideas come from maybe it just the way my brain works!

Ratings System

I must admit at the moment creating rating systems is one of my main interests.

I know not everyone thinks they are useful but for me they give you the chance to be more consistent with your selections.

Especially when you narrow your searches to particular race types like Handicap, Hurdles.

There are a lot of different ways of creating ratings and again Grey Horse Bot members get a couple of their own to use.

I am at this moment working on my 6th version. Each time I try to pick a completely different way of coming up with the figure using ideas that I haven’t used before.

So I have picked an idea what’s next?

Here are some initial things I think about before I start my research.

Is this a back or lay system?
How many selections a day, week or month am I looking for?
Is there a strike rate I would like to see?
How much profit am I hoping for?
What ROI am I looking to achieve?

Now I know that you may be thinking…

“Surely you can not answer those questions until you find a system?”

And that is a correct assumption except…

…I have an idea of the type of systems, strike rate, profit and ROI I prefer.

I tend to like backing systems over lay systems.

I don’t really care about how many selections a day I get…but many people want at least some “action every day”.


I am ok with a strike rate of 13% or better but don’t tend to like them under that percentage because of the chance for very long losing runs. (You could be different.)

Although I like profit…ROI is my thing I am looking for a good return on my investment.

By taking the time to ask these questions you will save yourself time pursuing ideas that are unlikely to fulfil your personal needs.

Next week we will finish off with some further things you should know about creating your own systems.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
“The Nerd”

Find out more about the Greyhorse Bot at http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection courtesy of http://bookiesenemyno1.com

4.55 York Bragging 11/4 generally

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close