Tag Archives: SPOT

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Betfred Mile Tips

Today we are joined by Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders who has analysed the Betfred King George Stakes and the Betfred Mile.

To get access to all Nick's tips join him at http://bettinginsiders.com

The Glorious Goodwood festival is in full flow and Friday sees the Group 2 Betfred King George Stakes over 5f and the 20 runner Betfred Mile heritage handicap. I have run the rule over the entries and hopefully identified a few likely types including a 28/1 outsider for the feature sprint.

3.05pm Betfred Mile (Heritage handicap) 1m

A big field handicap over a mile and it is worth applying some trends to try and whittle the field down to a few likely contenders.

16 of the last 17 winners were all aged 3 to 5yo
14 of the last 17 winners had a previous win at the distance
All bar two of the winners since 1997 had raced in the last 30 days
14 of the winners since 1997 had run to a top 5 finish LTO

That leaves us with a short list of three – Velox, Russian Realm and Heavy Metal.

With Russian Realm doubtful we are left with the top two in the betting. These horses are those that best match the profiles of previous winners since 1997.

Trends selections: Velox @7/1 and Heavy Metal @9/1

3.40pm King George Stakes 5f

Caspian Prince looks a tad overpriced @28/1 given he has some decent form on downhill tracks including a win in the Epsom dash earlier this year.

This is an obvious step up in class but he is a speedy type who should be suited by the track and must have an each-way shout if the rain stays away (best form on good to firm).

Demora is another who brings good handicap form to the table and is worth a crack at this level. On form then Extortionist looks the one to beat but is priced up accordingly.

Tropics also has top notch Group form including a career best runner up spot to Slade Power in the July Cup.

However, this is his first attempt at the minimum trip.

Hamza has a Group 3 win to this name three starts back (Es Que Love back in 2nd) and will most likely attempt to make all. He looks a solid back-to-lay proposition.

Last year’s winner Moviesta has failed to go on this year but his figures over 5f on good or good to firm are excellent. I think he will run well.

Likeliest winner: Extortionist @9/2
Alternative: Moviesta @8/1
Each-way alternatives: Caspian Prince @28/1

Finally don’t forget to keep an eye out for the 2yo Godolphin runners at Newmarket this Friday and Saturday. We have previously highlighted their performance at the July course over the last 5 years and they have proved very profitable to follow for this column in the last 4 weeks.

Nick Hardman
http://bettinginsiders.com

Coral Football Jackpot 950,000/1

Before we get into this weeks football review I just wanted to let you know that the Coral Football Jackpot is sitting at £950,000 and may well hit the million pound mark this weekend.

All you have to do to win this is correctly predict the result of 15 matches, the cost of entry is £1 – Click Here to Enter.

Weekend Football Preview

Unusually for top club football in England this weekend we see a combination of both FA Cup and Premier League football.

With only eight clubs left in the FA Cup we’re very firmly getting into the business end of the competition and if results fall a certain way then it could well turn out to be another year of the underdog.

Last season we witnessed Wigan managed by the likeable Spaniard Roberto Martinez walk away victorious after a 1-0 win over Manchester City. Funnily enough both sides are lining up against each other once more – this time in the quarter finals.

Wigan are now a Championship side but they will still fancy their chances in a one off encounter and can point to last years final as a motivation to progress in the Cup. Of course the smart money will all be on City but you just never know.

Martinez and Wigan parted company after their historic win last season but his love for the Cup remains strong and his new side Everton are in the last eight. They face a tricky away tie at this seasons surprise side Arsenal. Arsene Wenger will be only too aware that it has been far too many years since his side picked up any silverware and this could turn out to be his best chance at achieving that this season.

I expect him to field a strong team and instruct his gunners to go out onto the pitch with all guns blazing. If the Toffeemen can withstand the assault in the first half then they may hold out for a draw or even sneak a win in the latter parts of the game.

But for me I think the determination and desire of not only the Arsenal players but also all their fans cheering them on will spur them onto a place in the semi finals. I expect the gunners to win by 2 clear goals.

The remaining ties pit some of the lesser fancied sides left in the competition and they will be delighted to see that their chances of reaching a Wembley final have been improved enormously after watching the demise of top sides such as Chelsea, Manchester United and Liverpool in previous rounds. It’s League 1 plays Championship in the Sheffield United and Charlton match up.

After an horrendous start to the season the Blades have finally woken up and have in the past eight matches put all to the sword with eight straight wins. This has not only propelled them up their table but also seen them march into the quarter finals of the Cup. It’s a fair bet that none of their current fans were around to witness their last victory in the FA Cup when they defeated Cardiff 1-0 in the Final of 1925.

With so few clubs left in the hat there is now a very real chance of emulating that – they can but dream. Charlton have also struggled with their league campaign this season and will like United view this as a great chance to make their mark on World football. Wouldn’t it be great to see one of these two play in Europe next season?

The last tie sees Premier League teams who may be more focussed on retaining their status in the top division than concentrating on the romance of the Cup, Hull and Sunderland. As Wigan showed last year it is possible to progress in the Cup whilst struggling at the foot of the Premier League but as history shows they ultimately succumbed to relegation.

It could be that their Chairmen are secretly harbouring thoughts that it may not be a bad thing to exit the competition at this stage. After all sadly for history the money is all in retaining your place in the top league and not chasing glory. Sunderland are fresh from their valiant loss last weekend against Manchester City in the Capital 1 Cup Final at Wembley and now they have a taste for the high life they may be more inspired to repeat that excellent experience.

However, with Steve Bruce at the helm of Hull a man who has enjoyed huge success with the FA Cup in his time with Manchester United working his magic on his Tigers they could take advantage of playing at home and claw their way into the last four. Personally I hope that the Tigers along with ex Stevenage winger the “White Pele” George Boyd make it through.

Away from the FA Cup and back in the Premier League current leaders Chelsea will be hoping to take full advantage of being the only top four side to play this weekend for points. They play Tottenham in what could prove to be a tricky game.

Tottenham’s form is very much hit and miss at the moment but they could spring a surprise and hold the blues to a draw, I just can’t see them taking all three points away from Stamford Bridge. With this seasons title chase being so very tight that could be two very important points dropped for Chelsea. Elsewhere, Manchester United simply must beat West Bromwich Albion if they are to stand any chance of finishing in the top four and getting into the Champions League.

They are now 12 points adrift of that fourth spot and if they drop many more points at this stage of the season they will surely leave themselves with far too much to do as qualification draws to a close.

To not qualify for the Champions League will be a total disaster for the Red Devils and could lead to a huge overhaul of the club in the summer. If the players realise this now then it may inspire them to play like we all know they can but at the moment they seem just a tad lack lustre in their approach. I can see the Baggies bagging all three points tomorrow.

It’s a real relegation six pointer in deepest Wales as Cardiff play Fulham. Both clubs are playing poorly and prop up the league as they start to fall away from the other clubs around them.

This is a must win game but who will come away with the points? The loser could well be sealing their own fate this weekend. I know there’s still a long way to go but if you fall six or seven points away from safety with only nine games to go then it would take a herculean effort to drag yourself away from the bottom three.

The last two games feature sides that could easily be facing relegation woes come the end of the season and will be mightily relived if they pick up three points tomorrow. Crystal Palace take on a Southampton side who have done enough in the early part of the season to retain their status for another year. With this in mind I think that the Eagles will have more desire about them and emerge with a win.

Norwich and Stoke are in a similar position in the nether regions of the table. Both will view this game as one they can and should win. Thirty seven points was enough to see a side safe last season and if Stoke win tomorrow then they will be on thirty three points.

With nine matches left they may well view a win against a fellow struggler as job done for the season. Both managers will be keen to impress upon their players the importance of wins against sides that are viewed as their contemporaries.

Top Tips

My double tip for this week features an obvious win for Manchester City (best odds of 1/6) and a more risky victory for a Sheffield United side playing a team one division higher in Charlton Athletic (at 13/10).

City are a side that just don’t know how to lose at the moment and United’s eight wins on the bounce means their confidence will be sky high.

Racing Selection

Sandown 3.40 Spencer Lea – win bet – 3/1 Bet 365

Weekend Football Double

Today we have a preview of the weekends football action and tips from Tipster Warehouse…

FA Cup 5th Round

Top flight football this weekend comes courtesy of the FA Cup 5th Round as the Premier League takes a short break. The relative minnows left in the final sixteen will be buoyed by the fact that the “Big Four” clubs left in the competition face off against each other in two potentially thunderous clashes. As Wigan showed last season it is possible for a smaller club to win big in the FA Cup but only if the draw is kind to you.

The first tie of the weekend sees Sunderland take on this seasons surprise package Southampton. The Saints have had a fantastic season thus far and even though they have tailed off a little of late they will still fancy their chances of progressing. However, since Gus Poyet grasped the reins at the Stadium of Light the Black Cats form has improved dramatically.

They have won six games already in 2014 including the superb despatch of Manchester United in the League Cup semi final and they really seem to ramp up the passion in the Cup matches. I expect Saturday to be no different and with generous odds of 12/5 available for the home side it makes them well worth a punt.

Current Cup holders Wigan Athletic may have succumbed to relegation last season but they will have been overjoyed to be paired with Cardiff City in this round and a very real opportunity to retain their crown. Although the Welshmen are the higher ranked side they are in a poor run of form and have won just once in the league in their last ten matches. Wins over Newcastle and Bolton in the FA Cup cannot mask their lack of confidence at the moment and I have a sneaky suspicion that the Latics will take this tie possibly after a replay.

In the all Championship clash Sheffield Wednesday face Charlton. Both clubs have performed heroics to reach this stage of the Cup given they are both languishing in the nether reaches of their League. The Owls are in 17th place but Charlton are currently occupying a relegation spot and both sets of supporters will secretly be harbouring thoughts that an early exit may not be a bad thing.

Although the glory of the Cup is a wonderful thing they may be more concerned with retaining their league status and not making the dreaded drop to League One. This is a tight one to call but I’d favour the home side to make that advantage pay and for the Northerners to squeak into the quarter finals.

The early evening televised match sees Jose Mourinho take his Chelsea side up to Manchester to face a City side that are in an incredible run of home form. City have won 17 of 19 home games this season and knocked in a paltry 72 goals in those ties. But crucially for Jose and his boys one of those losses was a matter of days ago against Chelsea. Has he got their number?

Can he get the tactics right once more and cause an upset? Personally I think that the Citizens learn quickly and they will not make the same mistakes in this match. Their scoring prowess is nothing short of amazing and I’d favour them to progress in an absolute corker of a match.

The first of Sunday’s games is an all Premier League clash featuring Everton and Swansea. Roberto Martinez had until recently looked like he had turned the Toffeemen into potential title challengers but they have in recent weeks proven to lack the stamina to keep up a sustained assault and the FA Cup may prove to be their best chance of picking up some silverware this season.

Martinez of course was in charge of Wigan last season as they won the Cup and he will be hoping that his experience will enable his side to move into the next round with a minimum of fuss. The Swans are in turmoil at the moment and took the surprising decision to ditch their manager the likeable Dane Michael Laudrup in favour of the inexperienced Garry Monk. In my opinion the bookies are being overly generous in their view that Everton will win this one. With odds of 11/2 available on a Swans win it could be worth a cheeky pound or two in what is don’t forget a Cup tie.

The lowest team still in the competition are League One strugglers Sheffield United in what must be for their fans a bittersweet experience this season. The FA Cup is great fun but if they are honest they would far rather an extra 20 points in the league than a place in the quarter finals. Forest are riding high in the race for a place in the Premier League and I expect them to have more drive and desire to reach the next round than their Yorkshire counterparts. Odds of 13/10 in favour of Billy Davies and his men could prove to be like taking candy from a baby.

The big match on Sunday gives an early opportunity for Arsenal to gain revenge for their recent mauling at the hands of Liverpool in the League. Even though the Gunners are battling for the title at the moment they face a side in stunning form and with Arsene Wenger’s men in poor form when playing other big clubs it could just be that Brendan Rogers could get his tactics right and take this tie.

As I mentioned earlier the smaller clubs will see this seasons competition as a great chance to take some silverware but this also applies to the big four as well and with two of Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea definitely eliminated this round those that can remain could reap some rich rewards. This should be a cracking game and I can see Luis Suarez and his men taking this – possibly after a replay.

The last tie of this round is played on Monday evening and features Premier League Hull City as they travel south to Brighton. The Seagulls have won their last four home matches and the Tigers face a difficult challenge if they are to move forwards.

This one to me is too close to call as home advantage and good form should count for just as much as playing in the Premier League. I anticipate that this match may turn out to be an old fashioned blood and thunder, throw everything but the kitchen sink at your opponents type of game which will prove exciting for the neutral and could see the home side upset the odds and progress.

Top Tips

A double for me with Sunderland (12/5) and Swansea (11/2) giving potentially great returns.

This double pays at just over 21/1.

To find out more about Tipster Warehouse and to get more free tips Click Here.

Racing Selection

8.05 Wolverhampton Brownsville – win bet – 2/1 Bet 365

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