Tag Archives: statistic

Weekend Racing Tips

Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman) keeps sending winners our way and this week he looks at today's Doncaster card and tomorrows Aintree feature…

Weekend Racing Tips

Our mud-larks ran well at Ascot last weekend with Madame Chiang being the highlight winning at 12/1.  Betfair backers would have been nicely rewarded with an SP of 18.

Not a lot of action this Friday, but I want to highlight the performance of Luca Cumani at Doncaster this season and he has a number of runners this afternoon.

We will also be taking a look at the Old Roan Chase from Aintree that takes centre stage on Saturday.

Luca Cumani is having a solid season and one track where he has done particularly well is Doncaster.  Here are his statistics at the Yorkshire course this season to date:

Runs: 21

Wins: 8

Strike rate (% win): 38%

Strike rate (% place): 62%

Profit to level £1 stakes: £13.51

On Friday he runs:

1.50pm Dreamlike

3.30pm Sleeper King @25/1 (e/w ¼ odds, 5 places)

4.05pm Norway Cross @6/1

4.40pm Kleo @5/1

Dreamlike is a 2yo and Cumani has not had a 2yo winner at the course in the last 5 seasons (0-11). 

I would not be overly concerned by that statistic as he has only had the two 2yo runners up at Doncaster this season.

Overall his juveniles are 7-34 this year at a highly respectable strike rate of 21%. 

Dreamlike made an encouraging debut and there is likely more to come.  The market could be quite informative of her chances and she could go well at a price. 

Sleeper King has failed to progress from a promising 2yo campaign and he has shown nothing in 4 starts this year (form figures 0000).  However, this is his first run for Cumani having previously been with Kevin Ryan.  Caution is advised if you decide to back him. 

Norway Cross is interesting up in trip having won at Windsor last time out and Kleo is still unexposed after two wins this season and a LTO fourth in a Listed race at Yarmouth in September.  These two appear to have the best chances of the quartet.

The jumps season is starting to gather momentum and this Saturday sees the Old Roan Chase at Aintree. 

This year’s renewal looks wide open and a case can be made for many including current favourite Uxizandre, Module, Rajdhani Express and last year’s winner Conquisto. 

At the prices I think there is a bit of value in Conquisto to retain his crown if the ground stays good. 

A lot of the higher rated horses in this race will have other targets such as the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Cheltenham festival whereas this looks like Conquisto’s main target. 

He is 4lbs lower than when winning this last year and I think he could well have been laid out for this. 

As an each-way alternative then Astracad could outrun his price, especially as he seems to save some of his better performances for Aintree (including a decent 2nd in this last year). 

In 2013 he ran in a 2 ½ mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham October meeting a week before lining up for this.  He has followed exactly the same path this year and with the Twiston-Davies horses running well he can give each-way backers a decent run for their money. 

If the rain arrives and there is a change in the going to soft then Wishfull Thinking would have to enter calculations.  His last 3 wins have come on heavy, soft and soft going.  He is rated 162 but he won twice off this mark last season.

Saturday Aintree 3.00pm

Conquisto @7/1 (if the ground remains good)

Each-way alternatives: Astracad @14/1 & Wishfull Thinking @14/1 (soft or worse) 

Profitable Trainers and Jockeys

Today Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com talks about the research he is doing into profitable trainers and jockeys.

Profitable Trainers and Jockeys

Over the last year or so I have got really interested in Jockey and Trainers.

There is always a lot of talk about following the ones that are “in form”.

One thing I have learned is that it is not easy following them but if you manage your money correctly and are prepared to follow through then they can be rewarding.

One of the “open” tests we have been running at the Grey Horse Bot web site for the last 5 months is 16 jockeys to follow on the flat (grass only).

For me this system shows quite clearly how “interesting” it can be to follow Jockeys.

I have to admit I didn’t do too much work on this system I just took the top 16 jockeys that had over 200 runs (in our database at the time) and had made at least 10 points profit and had a strike rate of over 10%

So far this season (2014) combined:

3626 Selection


484 Wins


13.35 % Strike rate


277.97 points profit (at BSP -5%)


AWO 7.44


ROI 7.67%

When you look at statistics from a system there are always one or two figures that can give you an understanding to how hard it can be to follow a system.

13.35% strike rate normally means some long losing runs.


ROI 7.67 also points to a lot of work to earn those 277 points.

Of course with a bit more work and study we could have probably cut out some of the races and maybe even some of the Jockey could have been dropped.

But it does show that they can be very profitable even if they can be hard work to follow.

With the jump season upon us it’s a good time to look at some other statistics.

If we take Jockeys running on Handicap Hurdles with at least 100 runs (over the last two years).

Even the best only manage an average strike rate of around 16 to 18%.

You can find higher strike rates on jockeys with less runs so it is always worth looking for Jockeys that maybe only pick certain races to run in or new ones that appear to have started well.

This figure alone should tell you that you need to see if any jockey you want to follow does better in certain types of races of with specific trainers.

Trainers (less runs) do not fare much better on overall strike rate with the average being pretty similar to Jockeys.

The really interesting statistic is Jockeys and Trainers.

There is no doubt that there are pairings that are very successful like A P McCoy and Jim Best.

Strike rate on many of these are as high as 50% (over the last 2 years) and many are in the 30 to 40% range.

Some of these pairings can be very profitable especially some on the less well known ones.

So if you don’t like the idea of following Jockeys or Trainers on their own because of the low strike rate then the answer could be Jockey and Trainer pairs.

Check out open testing in the Article section of the Grey Horse Bot web site.

Malcolm Pett

Grey Horse Bot

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

4.00 Ludlow The Bear Trap – win bet – 4/1 Sky Bet

Nano Betting Systems

Today we have an article from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com.

“Don’t put all your betting eggs in one basket.” The art of “nano” systems.

I like many people who have betting and creating systems for many years believe in creating very specific systems that find trends based on very specific criteria.

I call them “nano” systems.

I have 3 main criteria when creating a nano system.

It is created using one of the five race types (Flat, Hurdle, Chase, All Weather or national hunt flat).

It uses specific criteria like age group or form element or even a particular runner type.


It will generally be looking at 30 or less selections a month sometimes as little as 10 or less.

Although there is no real criteria on the amount of points a nano system may make a month it is generally accepted that's this will probably be 10 or less points per month.

There are two main reasons why you may want to consider creating nano betting systems.

The first is it allows you to find niches within a sport like horse racing that has possibly been over looked and so allows you select runners that either offer better value or that allow you to win more often than statistically you should.

Secondly it allows you to build up a portfolio of targeted systems that combined could allow you to make more profit than may have be earned by using just one system.

Like the old saying “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket”

But let’s have a look at an example.

One of the great things about Nano type systems is that you can be so specific that you can even just choose one day of a week to base your system around.

Now I know not everyone will agree that days of the week should matter to a system and it’s not always the case. But in this instance I did find a system that over the last 16 months has produced a profit.

Of course it could be a trend and it has had some losing months but it has still produced a profit since I first introduced it on the 22/02/2014.

And even last month made 9.43 points

In this case the system used our “in house” rating system (available to users) and used a number of race and form elements to drill down to find this system.

In fact the tool I used (the SPB system builder) has improved so much since I created the system that it is probably worth looking at it again.

Another system I have just introduced is based around French horses doing well in particular UK races.

I haven’t worked out why they seem to do so well but there is an apparent trend at the moment in certain races.

One other trend I have just noticed is in races where there are just three runners.

I found a profit of 76.473 points could have been made over the last 69 races at BSP (after commission) on certain race types.

I have actually put together a guide for you so you can see exactly how to find the selections.

Find out more here. 3 Runner System

This one actually breaks my first rule but it was spotted accidentally when I was researching statistics for number of runners in a race for a client.

This is just 3 examples of the type of systems you can come up when looking for a more targeted system.

In the next article I will have some more examples of “Nano” systems and some that you can follow automatically.

Thank you for reading I really appreciate it.

Malcolm
Grey Horse Bot.

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

9.15 Kempton Loraine – eachway bet – 13/2 Bet 365

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