Tag Archives: subject

Recovery staking a TABOO subject?

Today we have our regular Wednesday wisdom from Malcolm Pett, we also have selections for both the Headgear and Tongue Tie systems. Here's Malcolm…

Recovery staking for me has always been a taboo subject.

I have tried it in the past and lost a lot of money doing so.

When you mention recovery staking most people think about putting all your losses on the next bet and that’s the one to be AVOIDED at all costs.

Obviously a conversation about any form of staking needs a disclaimer…

Don’t do it unless you are fully aware of the cost!!!

Also there isn’t a staking system ever thought up that will allow you to make money from a system that doesn’t consistently make profit.

But I use one I actually call “Help recovery”.

It doesn’t usually recover all your losses but it seems to help.

I call it “1234..etc” staking and it works simply by…

“Increasing your stake by your ORGINAL stake every time you lose”

There are a few of things to clarify here…

It’s not doubling your stake (although bet 2 makes it look that way).

It won’t work with systems that don’t have a high strike rate.

The further you go into the sequence the less likely you are to recover your losses.

You need a stop loss setting.

Here is how it works.

1 is your original stake.

If you lose you go to 2 which is your original stake multiplied by 2.

If you lose again you go to 3 which is your original stake multiplied by 3.

And so on.

If you lose on 7 then you would have lost 28 points of your bank.

And you will need a 4/1 winner just to break even.

Which will be unlikely when used with a high strike system that this idea works best with.

So why use a staking system that won’t recover your losses?

With high strike systems you tend to get a mixture of very low prices and odds on prices.

You don’t tend to have long losing runs and so when this system does kick in it can often be for only 1 or 2 selections and the odd higher priced winner just seems to help boost up the profits.

I find with some systems this can be an extra 10 or more points a month.

A couple of tests we have been doing over at the Grey Horse Bot website have results sheets showing how this works.

Click here for an example.


Again please be warned that staking isn’t for everyone and you need to be aware of the risks.

I tend to use 7 as my maximum with this system and realise that if I hit that…

…then it is a month’s (or more) profit down the drain.

Also when using staking select a stake lower than you normal would.

1% or less of your bank.

Thanks
Malcolm

http://greyhorsebot.com

System Selections

With both of these systems I'm still paper trading, but I wanted to post the selections so you can follow along with the live test.

Tongue Tie System

14:55 Chepstow – Nervous Nineties – 150/1 Coral

First Time Headgear

14:35:00 Down Royal – Reality Dose – 16/1 Bet Victor

Today's Selection

14:20:00 Chepstow Champagne Express – win bet – 3/1 Bet 365

Word from the Nerd

This weeks article from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com sheds some light on the topic of value…

People are always talking about value when it comes to horse racing.

But for the average punter in the street it’s a bit of a mystery.

It sounds like one of those weird things that all the experts like to talk about among themselves, while keeping everyone else in the dark about what it actually is.

Well let’s see if we can shed light on the subject.

The obvious explanation for value is:

“A horse’s real chance of winning is better than the odds reflect.”

So a horse may have a current price of 4/1 but according to those in the know it should be 3/1.

All things being equal if you placed a bet on every horse where you found this discrepancy you should make a profit because the horse should win more often than the odds reflect.

But this is where for the average punter the problem lies.

How do you tell if a horse’s current price represents value?

Well that’s where the whole thing gets complicated.

It is really based around opinions and peoples different way’s of deciding if a horse has a better chance of winning, than the general view.

Most people try to work it out early so they can take a better price before the rest of the markets catch on.

Sometimes you can even see a difference between bookies and Betfair (which most people believe to represent a more accurate view of a horse’s true chance of winning).

But it still doesn’t help if you haven’t got a way of looking at each horse and deciding which one has the best chance of winning.

I always look at it from a system development point of view.

If I create a system that has a 25% strike rate then I need to get average winning odds of at least 4.00 to break even.

But I need better odds than that to make money.

But really that is all a system is…

It identifies horses that traditionally have odds higher (or better value) than the strike rate of the system points towards.

That’s why I always tell people… 

“Although there are lots of different statistics you can watch and monitor it is the strike rate and average winning odds that dictate if a system is profitable or not.”

So once you developed, purchase or find a system that you want to use, your only priority is to find the best price you can for each selection.

At the end of the day you can not control the strike rate of a system unless you “tweak” it (but then it becomes a new system) so your only chance to make profit is to work on the average winning price.

My own personal experience always leads me to Betfair because even after the 5% commission generally the prices are much better especially when you are not on the favourite.

Anyway I hope that goes some way to showing what value is.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
“The nerd”

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

Sandown 7.25 Prince of Stars – win bet – 9/4 Boylesports

£400,000 Prize Pool

It's time to get your entry in for the Tote Tent To Follow fantasy racing competition.

There are huge prizes for the final winner as well as monthly £10,000 bonus prizes.

To win the prizes all you have to do is pick 10 horses from those listed and add those to your stable.

You will then win points every time any of your stable wins a qualifying race.

With bonus points for the big races of the season.

The first monthly bonus prize will be awarded to the top scoring stable between 15th November and 30th November.

To win that first bonus prize you probably will need to have the winner of this weekends Paddy Power Gold Cup and the winner of the Hennessy Gold Cup Chase at the end of the month.

So maybe have a think about the likely winners of these 2 races to get your entry off to a good start.

http://totesport.com

Here is the full list of bonus races…

RACE COURSE & DATE

Paddy Power Gold Cup; Cheltenham, 16 November 2013
Hennessy Gold Cup Chase; Newbury, 30 November 2013
International Hurdle; Cheltenham, 16 December 2013
William Hill King George VI Chase; Kempton Park, 26 December 2013
Irish Champion Hurdle; Leopardstown, 26 January 2014
Irish Hennessy Gold Cup; Leopardstown, 09 February 2014
Racing Post Arkle; Cheltenham, 11 March 2014
Stan James Champion Hurdle; Cheltenham, 11 March 2014
Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase; Cheltenham, 12 March 2014
RSA Chase; Cheltenham, 12 March 2014
Ladbrokes World Hurdle;Cheltenham, 13 March 2014
Ryanair Chase ; Cheltenham, 13 March 2014
Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup; Cheltenham, 14 March 2014
Aintree Hurdle; Aintree, 05 April 2014
Crabbie's Grand National; Aintree, 05 April 2014

All the above dates are subject to confirmation of the 2013/2014 racing calendar.

http://totesport.com

Lay Debutants

13:20:00 Sedgefield 3 Clues And Arrows
14:30:00 Lingfield 6 Sirrah Star (IRE)
16:05:00 Lingfield 4 Greatday Allweek (IRE)
16:15:00 Wolverhampton 4 Alba Verde
16:15:00 Wolverhampton 1 Dreese (IRE)
16:15:00 Wolverhampton 3 Techtycoon

Lay Handicap

12:40:00 Huntingdon 3 Boss In Boots (IRE)

Today's Selection

1.30 Lingfield Bit Of A Clown – eachway bet – 8/1 Bet Victor, Bet 365, Sporting Bet

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