Tag Archives: success

Place Ratings continued…

This week Malcolm Pett continues with the development of his place ratings.

Over to Malcolm…

Last week I introduced my new place rating system which has a number of ratings that you can combine in different ways to find selections to place.

In this article I want to go into a little more detail about the ratings and introduce a further 2 ratings which may help a little more.

One of the new columns is marked “MR” which is a little cocktail of mine made up of various bits of information.

I don’t like runners with a minus (-) figure in this column and generally use it to identify the strong runners in the race.

Place Ratings

The “Rat 1” column is another strength indicator which I usually look at like this:

0 – Very weak and probably a no bet.
1 to 9 still very week but will look at it combined with other figures.
10 and above is best with into the 30’s being very strong.

I never take a “Qlf 1” selection if it is a minus (-) figure.

50 and above is better although if all the runners are less than this, I may consider the selection.

5 or above is my favourite in “Qlf 2”. I really don’t like anything under 4. A score of 7 tends to be very strong.

I never take a 0 in “Qlf 3” and 1’s are not my favourite either and I really like my runner to be top or equalled top whenever possible.

The “Rating” column is a combination of Qlf1 to Qlf 3 and can be used on its own.

A runner with a score of over 100 is certainly one that should be looked at.

The “NS” rating is another new rating and a score of 10 or better points towards an interesting selection.

These are just guides but they give you some idea of how I feel about each column.

It’s actually interesting because I love statistics but I get a lot of enjoyment using the ratings on a new day and trying to figure out which selections I may go for.

It’s so easy when looking at results to imagine you would have or you wouldn’t have used a selection….

…But it is so different when you are going through the race card in the morning and trying to make a decision on what selections to use.

I tend to stick to the top 2 or 3 ranked runners.

I know they don’t always win or place but I feel I get more success from them than I do other runners.

Although I will admit I haven’t really studied outsiders yet.

I generally look through the cards first of all to see if there are any selections that stand out.

Another method that I like to use is to score a runner based on if it has the highest or joint highest number in a column.

Again only sticking to the top ranked runners I will give 1 point for each column where they score highest or joint highest.

3 or higher is worth considering for a place where a score of 5 or 6, I may consider for a win.

Have a look yourself here.

http://greyhorsebot.co.uk/artview.asp?pnum=98

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

The Grey Horse Bot

Today's Selection

1.50 Wetherby Tiptoeaway – 7/1 Bet Victor

Football and Racing Tips

Our football bet last week came in with 4 out of 5 bets successful and a £33 return for our £11 staked, which is nice but what we want is all 5 winning for a three figure return.

This week we have to head lower down the leagues, but that's not necessarily a bad thing as we have had some success in previous seasons with the lower league selections.

First though a reminder to do your Sky Super 6 for a chance to win £250,000 with nothing to pay – http://dailypunt.com/super6

And a reminder that Nick posted up selections for the Cesarewitch yesterday http://dailypunt.com/cesarewitch-tips/

If you want more Cesarewitch analysis there is a trends breakdown for free on this page http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cesarewitch

Here are the football selections from The Alternative Punters Syndicate (Click here to trial their racing and football bets for free for one month)

Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways'
(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)

COVENTRY
BURY
HEARTS
BRECHIN
QUEENS PARK

The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 5 Aways' are available with…
William Hill

Profitable Trainers and Jockeys

Today Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com talks about the research he is doing into profitable trainers and jockeys.

Profitable Trainers and Jockeys

Over the last year or so I have got really interested in Jockey and Trainers.

There is always a lot of talk about following the ones that are “in form”.

One thing I have learned is that it is not easy following them but if you manage your money correctly and are prepared to follow through then they can be rewarding.

One of the “open” tests we have been running at the Grey Horse Bot web site for the last 5 months is 16 jockeys to follow on the flat (grass only).

For me this system shows quite clearly how “interesting” it can be to follow Jockeys.

I have to admit I didn’t do too much work on this system I just took the top 16 jockeys that had over 200 runs (in our database at the time) and had made at least 10 points profit and had a strike rate of over 10%

So far this season (2014) combined:

3626 Selection


484 Wins


13.35 % Strike rate


277.97 points profit (at BSP -5%)


AWO 7.44


ROI 7.67%

When you look at statistics from a system there are always one or two figures that can give you an understanding to how hard it can be to follow a system.

13.35% strike rate normally means some long losing runs.


ROI 7.67 also points to a lot of work to earn those 277 points.

Of course with a bit more work and study we could have probably cut out some of the races and maybe even some of the Jockey could have been dropped.

But it does show that they can be very profitable even if they can be hard work to follow.

With the jump season upon us it’s a good time to look at some other statistics.

If we take Jockeys running on Handicap Hurdles with at least 100 runs (over the last two years).

Even the best only manage an average strike rate of around 16 to 18%.

You can find higher strike rates on jockeys with less runs so it is always worth looking for Jockeys that maybe only pick certain races to run in or new ones that appear to have started well.

This figure alone should tell you that you need to see if any jockey you want to follow does better in certain types of races of with specific trainers.

Trainers (less runs) do not fare much better on overall strike rate with the average being pretty similar to Jockeys.

The really interesting statistic is Jockeys and Trainers.

There is no doubt that there are pairings that are very successful like A P McCoy and Jim Best.

Strike rate on many of these are as high as 50% (over the last 2 years) and many are in the 30 to 40% range.

Some of these pairings can be very profitable especially some on the less well known ones.

So if you don’t like the idea of following Jockeys or Trainers on their own because of the low strike rate then the answer could be Jockey and Trainer pairs.

Check out open testing in the Article section of the Grey Horse Bot web site.

Malcolm Pett

Grey Horse Bot

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

4.00 Ludlow The Bear Trap – win bet – 4/1 Sky Bet

8 Years a Winner

If you suffer from loss of nerve when you encounter a losing run with your bets it's probably because you have doubts about the selection method that you are using.

Maybe the fact that it has won every month this year is just a coincidence.

What is a great help with coping with losing runs is to look back at previous results from your selection method and know that it has always profited in the past.

And I'm not talking about back fitted results that have been pulled from a database.

Today I'm talking about a selection method that has been sold every year since 2006 and has made a profit every year since 2006.

Yes, for 8 consecutive years this system has NEVER lost money over the course of the NH Season.

This 100% win rate has helped achieve profits of over £9400 for it's members to just £20 stakes.

I'm referring to Trainer Track Stats which goes live today for the 2014/2015 National Hunt season.

The NH TTS Guide concentrates solely on the runners from the jumps trainers who have consistently shown good profits over the last 5 years. They're not necessarily the biggest name trainers in the business but when it comes to their National Hunt horses they know where, and when, to place them.

And part of the secret to TTS's success is that the list of these winning trainers is updated each year helping to keep TTS fresh and up to date and adapting to the ever changing trainer trends.

For just £79 you can get the guide plus access to the members site where all the days selections are worked out for you.

>>GET YOUR COPY OF TRAINERTRACKSTATS NOW!<< Or for just £19 a month you can spread the payments over the course of the Season whilst still enjoying all the benefits of the full service. Due to the huge following TTS enjoys there is bound to be immense demand for the latest manual and with copies being strictly limited to safeguard the odds for subscribers you need to ACT NOW OR MISS OUT!....... >>GET YOUR COPY OF TRAINERTRACKSTATS NOW!<< Today's Selection

2.20 Windsor Harbour Patrol – win bet – 5/2 Boylesports

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