Tag Archives: tail

Betfair Trader

Today I am mostly reading about trading.

There is an interesting article in this months SmartSigger (Get your 1st month free here http://dailypunt.com/smartsig ) about the different types of Betfair trader and what sort of trader you might be.

As well as detailing different trading strategies, it also suggested a super fast trading tool which is free to use 🙂

I haven't tried it yet, but it definitely sounds like it is worth a play.

Here are some of the key features…

– Unbeatable speed – super fast trading on Betfair

– Grid Interface – single click trading, compact Betfair-style trading grid

– Ladder Interface – full depth of market, single click trading, queue position and built-in robot

– Position In Queue (PIQ) – provides a real-time estimated PIQ, arguably the most important and unique feature of our ladder!

– Automated Trading Robot – included is a unique Betfair bot, watch it trade on the ladder for you!

– Multi-Market – trade several different markets simultaneously

– Managed Markets (Guardian) – works in the background to gather data from multiple ‘managed' markets and maintain offset bets

– Tick Offset – automatically sends an opposing bet, after you get matched

– Stop Loss – automatically limits your losses. Trailing Stop Loss can also protect profits

– Racing Autopilot – it can automatically select each horse race and move forward
Greening (Cash-out) – a single click to lock in your profit (or loss) regardless of the outcome

– Advanced Charts – possibly the most comprehensive integrated charting available in any Betfair application

I think the most interesting and important feature for the trader is the advanced charts!

You can get the software here http://www.cymatic.co.uk/

If you've used it before I'd love to have your feedback in the comments.

Today's Selection

8.45 Kempton Four Cheers – eachway bet – 14/1 Bet Victor

Musselburgh Recap

We have racing at Musselburgh this afternoon, so today I'm going to revisit the pointers that Nick Hardman gave us a few weeks ago regarding trainers at this meeting.

Nick pointed us at a number of trainers that perform well at Musselburgh, with details of what types they excel with.

One of those trainers has runners today so we will look at the stats for Philip Kirby.

Nick's advice was to back Philip Kirby handicappers over 7 furlongs and longer.

Looking at the numbers I see that Mr Kirby concentrates on Handicaps, with 78 runs in Handicaps and only 7 in non Handicaps. (Musselburgh, last 4 years)

All of the non Handicap runners have lost.

The other pointer was to only bet at 7 furlongs or longer.

In fact there have only been two runs at below 7 furlongs, both lost.

Following the prescribed rules would have given the following returns over the past 4 years.

Runs = 76
Wins = 20
Strike Rate = 26.3%
Profit at iSP = 67.66
ROI iSP = 89.03%

Today Philip has…

Muss 4.10 Pass Muster (2 mile Handicap)
Muss 4.40 Iftikaar (7 furlong Handicap)

Performance Review

Today I'm going to have a little catch up on some of the angles we've looked at recently.

Starting off with September Trainers.

You'll remember on the 3rd of this month we published a list of trainers to follow in September.

After 11 days we have had 20 bets, 3 wins and a profit at industry SP of 1.5 points.

The Betfair SP profit is a slightly juicier 4.55 after commission which is a 22% ROI.

Mark Foley's Gordon Elliott angle got of to a cracking start with a 7/1 winner on the day we published and 3 winners from 4 on the second day.

My stats may have steered readers away from the odds on selections but either way great profit was made and this is one to follow going forward.

The next Perth meeting is on the 24th and 25th of September.

Finally it is Chester tomorrow and although the low draws will be bet in the sprints you'll remember that our previous articles have shown that horses drawn 1 and 2 have a definite advantage on the 11 and 12 furlong races also.

This advantage is overlooked or not known by the majority of punters and is a source of value bets for us.

This article goes into the detail http://dailypunt.com/chester-draw-bias-2/

Today's Selection

Chepstow 4.00 Romance Story – win bet – 9/2 Betfred

Creating Betting Systems III

Today we have a regular weekly catch up with Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

In the first two articles we looked at why I like systems and how I came up with the ideas.

In this final part I want to share with you some other things I have learned along the way which may help you when designing your own.

First of all it easy to get caught up in an idea…

Often you pursue an idea and start looking for ways to make it more profitable by filtering out more and more races until you end up with something that resembles the system you want.

I call this “Stacking and Racking” filters.

The problem is, everytime you add one filter you affect another and the more you “stack and Rack” the more likely it is that you have missed a better more profitable angle.

When you add a filter you should step back and see how that one filter works on its own against the original idea.

Secondly sample size is really important.


If you do a search initially on hurdle races you could have a massive sample size which will give you a good indication of the statistics.

Sometime during your research you may see that filtering out a certain element like an age group or last time out result may appear to improve the system.

But you have to be aware that a small sample size could be misleading and may not give you a very accurate statistic.

I don’t normally use a filter unless I have s sample size of at least 100 and really prefer much higher.

Finally you may want to stick to one race type. Hurdle, Chase, AW, NHF and Flat are all different types of racing.

It isn’t very often that you find a system that works well on one race type will also work just as well on another.

Even when you do…you will often see different win/loss trends across the race types.

If you analyse them individually you will probably find filters that work better on one than they do on others.

To finish off this series of articles here are some other things you may want to consider if you decide to develop your own systems.

Be aware of trends. All weather systems are a classic when it comes to trends.

Something that appears to have worked for the last 6 months or maybe even a year suddenly doesn’t.


Many archives don’t include Non Runners. This is not a big problem until you realise that on the day you may have selected that NR and not have been aware of it not running.

I find this really important when looking at runners ranked by a Rating Systems.



If you run the ratings leaving out NR’s you will of course get different selections than if you left them in. Don’t forget you don’t always here about NR’s until after the off. 


Don’t forget when you look at a system you are seeing the results based on SP or BSP and without you adding money into the market. 
You will only see how well it performs when you start using it.


Paper Test first always…Then small stakes. 

Any money into a market effects the price no matter how little. I use what I call “Price Pressure” to see what effect lowering the Average Winning Odds will have on a system.


Always be aware of your Strike Rate and Average winning odds. Look out for trends of either falling. But be aware short term trends can give false impressions.

You need to look at your system month by month to get an idea of how it performs and always create a graph. There is nothing like a visual display to show you how a system has performed.


Watch out for the “One big winner trap”. You often find a collection of data looks really profitable only to find it is actually just one or two big winners that actually created all the profit.


Finally please remember this…

I am a big believer in betting systems but I also realise that the biggest flaw with them is that you are using the past to predict the future.

The big advantage of creating your own systems is that you can tailor them to suit your own style of betting and instead of creating one. You can create many “nano” type systems that look at one particular type of racing.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
“The Nerd”

Find out more about the Greyhorse Bot at http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection courtesy of http://bookiesenemyno1.com

7.20 Hamilton Bi Focal 3/1 generally

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close