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Weekend Racing Tips

Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman) keeps sending winners our way and this week he looks at today's Doncaster card and tomorrows Aintree feature…

Weekend Racing Tips

Our mud-larks ran well at Ascot last weekend with Madame Chiang being the highlight winning at 12/1.  Betfair backers would have been nicely rewarded with an SP of 18.

Not a lot of action this Friday, but I want to highlight the performance of Luca Cumani at Doncaster this season and he has a number of runners this afternoon.

We will also be taking a look at the Old Roan Chase from Aintree that takes centre stage on Saturday.

Luca Cumani is having a solid season and one track where he has done particularly well is Doncaster.  Here are his statistics at the Yorkshire course this season to date:

Runs: 21

Wins: 8

Strike rate (% win): 38%

Strike rate (% place): 62%

Profit to level £1 stakes: £13.51

On Friday he runs:

1.50pm Dreamlike

3.30pm Sleeper King @25/1 (e/w ¼ odds, 5 places)

4.05pm Norway Cross @6/1

4.40pm Kleo @5/1

Dreamlike is a 2yo and Cumani has not had a 2yo winner at the course in the last 5 seasons (0-11). 

I would not be overly concerned by that statistic as he has only had the two 2yo runners up at Doncaster this season.

Overall his juveniles are 7-34 this year at a highly respectable strike rate of 21%. 

Dreamlike made an encouraging debut and there is likely more to come.  The market could be quite informative of her chances and she could go well at a price. 

Sleeper King has failed to progress from a promising 2yo campaign and he has shown nothing in 4 starts this year (form figures 0000).  However, this is his first run for Cumani having previously been with Kevin Ryan.  Caution is advised if you decide to back him. 

Norway Cross is interesting up in trip having won at Windsor last time out and Kleo is still unexposed after two wins this season and a LTO fourth in a Listed race at Yarmouth in September.  These two appear to have the best chances of the quartet.

The jumps season is starting to gather momentum and this Saturday sees the Old Roan Chase at Aintree. 

This year’s renewal looks wide open and a case can be made for many including current favourite Uxizandre, Module, Rajdhani Express and last year’s winner Conquisto. 

At the prices I think there is a bit of value in Conquisto to retain his crown if the ground stays good. 

A lot of the higher rated horses in this race will have other targets such as the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Cheltenham festival whereas this looks like Conquisto’s main target. 

He is 4lbs lower than when winning this last year and I think he could well have been laid out for this. 

As an each-way alternative then Astracad could outrun his price, especially as he seems to save some of his better performances for Aintree (including a decent 2nd in this last year). 

In 2013 he ran in a 2 ½ mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham October meeting a week before lining up for this.  He has followed exactly the same path this year and with the Twiston-Davies horses running well he can give each-way backers a decent run for their money. 

If the rain arrives and there is a change in the going to soft then Wishfull Thinking would have to enter calculations.  His last 3 wins have come on heavy, soft and soft going.  He is rated 162 but he won twice off this mark last season.

Saturday Aintree 3.00pm

Conquisto @7/1 (if the ground remains good)

Each-way alternatives: Astracad @14/1 & Wishfull Thinking @14/1 (soft or worse) 

Hunter Chase Favourites

I was a bit stuck for what to write about today.

So I had a look through the 80+ systems that I am monitoring at Horse Race Base and saw that one of the more obscure systems has been making good profits and has a selection today.

This is a system that targets favourites so no big price winners, but since I've been following it at the beginning of 2013 it's had a 54% strike rate and made a 35% return on investment.

The rules are…

Bet in Hunter Chases only.
Horse must not be top weight
Horse must not have won last time out (Under Rules point to point doesnt count)
Going mustn't be Firm or Good to Firm
Horse must be favourite.

Now when I started writing this Champagne Rosie was favourite to win the 7.55 at Fontwell.

But she has now flip flopped with Double Mead!

We'll go with Rosie as our selection and you can of course use the system on another day.

Today's Selection

Fontwell 7.55 Champagne Rosie – win bet – 5/4 Bet 365, Bet Victor

Arbitrage Betting

Today's guest article is from Betting Insiders contributor Mark Jenkins.

Mark is a full time arber and targets a weekly tax free profit of £1,000 from his arbs.

Here is an excerpt from his article in this months Betting Insiders report…

There are many arbitrage techniques, but generally speaking the more you can break an outcome down the better your chances of finding a money making opportunity.

One of my personal favourites is using HT/FT odds to cover the draw.

For example one recent match saw the best odds available on the draw as 12/5 (3.40 decimal).

By taking the best available HT/FT odds you could achieve 3.51.

You are only interested in the draw at full time so you need to cover the outcomes as follows.

1) Home team at halftime draw at fulltime.
2) Draw at halftime draw at fulltime.
3) Away team at halftime draw at fulltime.

Then whatever is happening at halftime the draw is covered at fulltime.

The odds were, 18/1 (19.00), 9/2 (5.50) and 19/1 (20.00).

It is easy to calculate, again we need to turn the odds to a % so 100/19 + 100/5.5 +100/20 = 28.44% then divide 100 by the % to get the relevant decimal odds 100/28.44% = 3.516.

Now that might not seem like much of an improvement but in arbitrage terms it makes a 1% trade into a 2.5% one and that is a BIG improvement.

Making money through arbitrage is just one way that I make money, there are the regular bonuses offered by the bookmakers to take advantage of, and the little incentives, such as the 1% cash back currently offered by Skrill (formerly Moneybookers), where just by depositing into a bookmaker 1% is given back by way of points that can be cashed in for actual money, this is another way of profiting from your arbitrage activities, making a 0% arb into a profitable trade if you have to deposit.

One of my arbitrage colleagues actually moves his money around every Monday morning to make profits from this incentive.

You can read more of Mark's strategies for risk free cash, including how he made a risk free 75% on an arb, in this months Betting Insiders report.

Betting Insiders Discount Coupon

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It is limited to the first 50 users.

To use it go to this page http://www.betting-school.com/amember/signup/index/c/cWZ3DwGIX

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To read more about Betting Insiders go here http://betting-school.com/private but use the first link (above) to secure the discount, all the bonuses will be the same 😉

Today's Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders

Redc 1735 Sorcellerie (Gen 11/2)

Two Year Old Micro System

Today we have an excerpt from an article that Mark Foley wrote for the current issue of the Betting Insiders Report.

Every month Mark shares five key trainer trends and below we have one of the five for May.

For more micro systems like this join the Betting Insiders Club, if you just want tips based on sound data then check out Mark's Trainer Trends service.

Tom Dascombe 

Tom Dascombe – 2yo runners priced 9/1 or shorter: Dascombe rode 96 winners for Martin Pipe, before spending 3 years as assistant trainer to Ralph Beckett and then a further 2 in South Africa/Dubai working for Mike De Kock. At the 2003 Dubai Racing Carnival, 8 of the 22 De Kock horses that Dascombe trained won, winning $3.6 million in prize money.

Returning to England in 2005 he set up in his own operation at Lambourn and after 4 successful years received an offer from Michael Owen and Betfair founder Andrew Black to move to Manor House Stables. This came at a time when Dascombe was worried about finding buyers for the eight 2yos he intended buying; backed by his new partners he was given a budget which meant he ended up with 50 yearlings at an average price of £38,000 each. Expect Tom Dascombe to be eating at the elite trainer’s table in a few short years.

However, it hasn’t all been plain sailing and it took a while to work out how to train horses from the new state of the art base. Staff had to be recruited, routines established and with a better quality of horses, new targets found. Since that 1st year results have improved each year in both the number of winners and prize money registered and regular patterns are now beginning to emerge. The highlight has been the 3 Royal Ascot winners, firstly with Rhythm Of Light and Brown Panther in 2011 and more recently the Queen Mary with Ceiling Kitty.

Since 2009 the stable have had 33 winners in May and the 2yos were the superstars winning 21 of their 93 races for a 45% profit. Only 4 of the 43 runners to go off at a double figure SP won and those at 9/1 or less were the ones to focus on. The table over page illustrates that Dascombe failed to have a juvenile winner in May until 2008, but enjoyed a successful 2009 before the move and apart from that dodgy first year the 2yos have served connections well with 11 winners in May in the last two years alone.

TomDascombe

The market was a good guide with all but one of the 6 runners to go off at 6/4 or shorter winning and the outright favourites winning 9 of their 13 races, for a most impressive 76% ROI. The runners priced 4/1 or shorter won 12 of their 27 races.

The fairer sex were the ones to follow; the fillies had a far better record than the colts and geldings providing 15 of the 21 winners. The strike rate was far superior as was the ROI, compared to the colts and geldings. The figures have been so far superior that you have to believe it is a deliberate ploy and that the stable’s long term target is to breed their own runners from high class mares and fillies.

The debutants did okay winning 5 of their 35 races for a 7% loss and it was the runners having their second run who were the ones to focus on as they won 9 races from 29 for an impressive 52% ROI. Stable jock Richard Kingscote rode all but 5 of the winners (16 from 57, for a 92% ROI).

Tom Dascombe: The 2yo runners priced 9/1 or less:

Tom Dascombe May Rresults

Betting Insiders Discount Coupon

We have secured a discount code which gives a 20% discount on any Betting Insiders subscription package.

It is limited to the first 50 users.

To use it go to this page http://www.betting-school.com/amember/signup/index/c/cWZ3DwGIX

And in the coupon box enter 756F3618

To read more about Betting Insiders go here http://betting-school.com/private but use the first link (above) to secure the discount, all the bonuses will be the same 😉

Today's Selection courtesy of Betting Insiders

Pont 1555 Heading North (7/2 Hills, PP)

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