Tag Archives: Tote

Football and Racing Tips

Today we have our regular football perm from The Alternative Punters Syndicate and a recap of the Saturday tips from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders.

Football Bets

We managed 3 from 5 last week, hopefully we can do better this week.

You can trial the TAPS service for free for a whole month here – http://dailypunt.com/taps

Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways'
(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)

MAN CITY
BRISTOL CITY
MK DONS
HEARTS
FORFAR

The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 5 Aways' are available with…
VCBet

Totepool Challenge Cup

The Totepool Challenge Cup from Ascot is the big handicap of the weekend and William Haggas’ Prince’s Trust is a worthy favourite.  He looks well ahead of his handicap mark but the value in his price has long since evaporated.

American Hope is vying for favouritism and has good Ascot form.  I would give him every chance, but again there is not much juice in his price.

At the prices, the one I like is Bunbury Cup winner Heaven’s Guest. He is very consistent, goes well in big fields and has course form to boot.

He won this race off a mark of 100 last year and is now rated 105.  George Chaloner takes off a useful 3lbs so Heaven’s Guest is effectively just 2lb higher than when successful in this in 2013.

At 12/1 he would be my idea of an each-way bet if you fancy taking on the favourites.

Saturday Ascot 3.50pm – Heavens Guest @12/1 each-way

Trainers To Follow

Hopefully a few of you were on Bronze Angel (14/1) in the Cambridgeshire last weekend after our trends article picked him out along with Velox (2nd) and Big Johnny D (7th) who returned a massive 50/1 for William Hill customers who got 7 places. 

This week we turn our attention to the jumps and highlight three trainers who are literally on fire right now with their National Hunt horses:

It’s always useful to take note of which trainers have their string in top order at the start of the National Hunt season and I have picked out three who have an exceptional strike rate in the last 30 days.  

Trainers To Follow

Charlie Longsdon (last 30 days)

Runs = 11
Wins = 7
Strike rate = 64%
Profit at SP = 13.75

Mrs Dianne Sayer (last 30 days)

Runs = 15
Wins = 7
Strike rate = 47%
Profit at SP = 20.50

Kim Bailey (last 30 days)

Runs = 11
Wins = 7
Strike rate = 64%
Profit at SP = 10.04

At the time of writing they have the following entries on Friday and Saturday:

Friday

Fontwell 3.15pm – Pure Style

Fontwell 5.00pm – Little Chip

Fontwell 5.30pm – Glowinginthedark

Hexham 4.05pm – Bell Weir

Hexham 4.40pm – Sergeant Pink

Hexham 5.10pm – Patsys Castle

Hexham 5.40pm – West End

Saturday

Fontwell 2.50pm – Viking Ridge

Fontwell 3.20pm – Pure Style

Fontwell 3.55pm – Up For An Oscar

The Totepool Challenge Cup from Ascot is the big handicap of the weekend and William Haggas’ Prince’s Trust is a worthy favourite.  He looks well ahead of his handicap mark but the value in his price has long since evaporated. 

American Hope is vying for favouritism and has good Ascot form.  I would give him every chance, but again there is not much juice in his price. 

At the prices, the one I like is Bunbury Cup winner Heaven’s Guest. He is very consistent, goes well in big fields and has course form to boot. 

He won this race off a mark of 100 last year and is now rated 105.  George Chaloner takes off a useful 3lbs so Heaven’s Guest is effectively just 2lb higher than when successful in this in 2013. 

At 12/1 he would be my idea of an each-way bet if you fancy taking on the favourites.

Saturday Ascot 3.50pm – Heavens Guest @12/1 each-way

This year’s renewal of the Arc looks very competitive and you can probably make a decent case for most of the field. 

It certainly looks like a race to watch rather than bet on. 

However, given the global appeal of the race, it is nice to have an interest even if it makes little appeal as serious betting proposition. 

One thing to bear in mind is the importance of the draw.  Essentially you do not want to be too wide coming around a sweeping bend that seems to last forever, before the horses straighten up for home. 

With that in mind I’ll keep it simple and side with a couple of 3yo fillies, the exact types who have done so well in this race in recent years.  

I also want to be in the low half of the draw so I will have to wait and see on that score. 

If the draw is kind I’ll be having a couple of quid each-way on Japan’s Harp Star and France’s Avenir Certain, even if it’s just to add a little spice to the enjoyment of watching Europe’s most prestigious flat race of the year.

Sunday Longchamp 3.30pm – Harp Star @8/1 and Avenir Certain @9/1

Nick Hardman

Betting Insiders

£400,000 Prize Pool

It's time to get your entry in for the Tote Tent To Follow fantasy racing competition.

There are huge prizes for the final winner as well as monthly £10,000 bonus prizes.

To win the prizes all you have to do is pick 10 horses from those listed and add those to your stable.

You will then win points every time any of your stable wins a qualifying race.

With bonus points for the big races of the season.

The first monthly bonus prize will be awarded to the top scoring stable between 15th November and 30th November.

To win that first bonus prize you probably will need to have the winner of this weekends Paddy Power Gold Cup and the winner of the Hennessy Gold Cup Chase at the end of the month.

So maybe have a think about the likely winners of these 2 races to get your entry off to a good start.

http://totesport.com

Here is the full list of bonus races…

RACE COURSE & DATE

Paddy Power Gold Cup; Cheltenham, 16 November 2013
Hennessy Gold Cup Chase; Newbury, 30 November 2013
International Hurdle; Cheltenham, 16 December 2013
William Hill King George VI Chase; Kempton Park, 26 December 2013
Irish Champion Hurdle; Leopardstown, 26 January 2014
Irish Hennessy Gold Cup; Leopardstown, 09 February 2014
Racing Post Arkle; Cheltenham, 11 March 2014
Stan James Champion Hurdle; Cheltenham, 11 March 2014
Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase; Cheltenham, 12 March 2014
RSA Chase; Cheltenham, 12 March 2014
Ladbrokes World Hurdle;Cheltenham, 13 March 2014
Ryanair Chase ; Cheltenham, 13 March 2014
Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup; Cheltenham, 14 March 2014
Aintree Hurdle; Aintree, 05 April 2014
Crabbie's Grand National; Aintree, 05 April 2014

All the above dates are subject to confirmation of the 2013/2014 racing calendar.

http://totesport.com

Lay Debutants

13:20:00 Sedgefield 3 Clues And Arrows
14:30:00 Lingfield 6 Sirrah Star (IRE)
16:05:00 Lingfield 4 Greatday Allweek (IRE)
16:15:00 Wolverhampton 4 Alba Verde
16:15:00 Wolverhampton 1 Dreese (IRE)
16:15:00 Wolverhampton 3 Techtycoon

Lay Handicap

12:40:00 Huntingdon 3 Boss In Boots (IRE)

Today's Selection

1.30 Lingfield Bit Of A Clown – eachway bet – 8/1 Bet Victor, Bet 365, Sporting Bet

Analyse Yourself

Carrying on from yesterday, today I want to talk about step 2 in the plan for preparing yourself to win at betting.

At the end of the week we'll put together everything we've covered in the week into a plan that you can work to get yourself on a professional footing.

Step 2 is – Analyse Your Own Personal Emotional/ Psychological Make Up

Most bettors don't like losers and find it hard to tolerate long losing runs.

Even if they have done their research and they know that their system or method has had a losing run of, say, 10 in the past. They can still crack and give up after a losing run of 5 or 6.

If you can't stand losing runs then you need to be looking at high strike rate lower priced selections in the methods that you use.

Betting at shorter odds at a higher strike rate may give you the confidence to bet with higher stakes. But again you need to think about how much you could lose and still remain calm and focused on your goal.

Obviously with higher stakes it doesnt take much of a losing run to run up a big deficit.

I know bettors who will risk a grand or £1500 on a short priced selection, but if 2 or 3 of those lose on the bounce you need balls of steel to stay cool and maintain your judgement.

The important thing is to stick within your comfort zone. Ideally you should be betting at a level such that if you lost 10 bets on the bounce that it wouldnt effect your judgement. And wouldnt effect your life at all.

If you had a £1000 bank for example, how would you feel if you staked £2 and lost that bet?

Not bothered I guess. What about if you staked £5 and lost, how would you feel? What if you staked £2 and had a losing streak and lost 10 bets in a row, £20 loss.

I guess you wouldn’t be too bothered if you knew the system had a good history, so you need to look at losing streaks and factor in the level of loss that you could comfortably tolerate.

Greed plays an important factor for those that are in the 98% bracket. Greed can be a very subtle emotion, and we all operate greed to some degree now and then. With betting however, it is very important to isolate greed completely, because greed is your enemy, and it is out to trip you up.

The best way to keep greed in check is to assume that your bet is going to lose, and to ensure that the stake amount is set according to your emotional make up. Once you have this level set, you are ready to continue.

The reason it is important to bet within your emotional comfort zone, is so that you don't pull out of a losing streak prematurely.

Most people when they bet, pullout halfway through or near the end of the losing streak. They determine that the system or the tipster is no good, but in fact, quite often, the bettor pulls out prematurely and suffers from a reduced bank.

With proven successful systems, the losing streak usually pulls out back into a profit, and continues to make an increased profit throughout the year.

For those that have pulled out however, have ended up with a loss and have not enjoyed the profitable return that the system has made. Those that bet according to their emotional/ psychological make-up, are more likely to stick to the system to see the losing streak through.

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My thanks go to the Betting Insiders Club who inspired this weeks posts – Find out more about the Betting Insiders Club at http://bettinginsiders.com

Todays Selection ourtesy of the Betting Insiders Club.

Yesterday’s selection Kopkap faded out of it at the business end of the race.

For today we are turning to our stats guru Mark Foley’s new “Owner Watch” angle with the 3yo Agerzam who would most likely have won last time out but for meeting interference in the final furlong. The owner has a 39% strike rate at the track in the last few years.

Agerzam (2030 Kemp) 7/4Totesport/Paddy Power

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