Tag Archives: treat

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Boost Your Bank by Betting at Half Time!!

Today we have a football betting strategy that will increase your profits written by Clive Keeing of What Really Wins Money

You’ve all heard the cliché “It’s a game of 2 halves”, well now you can exploit this fact for profit!

Start betting in the 2nd half of certain matches!

Treat the 2nd half as a match in and of itself.

The first half, therefore, becomes the launch pad for your betting decisions.
Let me explain what I mean by way of 2 Examples from the time I wrote this article..

Cast your mind back to the 15th August 2011, and a match between Manchester City and Swansea City…

Manchester City are rightly clear favourites, but let’s see what the score is at half-time: 0-0 ( you can check this out at www.soccerstats.com )

This is a big surprise. Now if your research had told you that Manchester City are likely winners, and there are likely to be goals in this match too – and if you had confidence in that research, why not enter the betting markets at half-time? (And to be fair, if you had been watching this match you’d have found the difference in class between the two teams glaringly obvious.)

The benefits are clear.

If you fancied Manchester City to win, you would be getting better odds at half-time in in-play markets such as those at www.bet365.com and on betting exchanges like www.betfair.com. Why are the odds on Manchester City bigger than they were pre match?

Quite simply because in-play markets react to occurrences (or in this case, non-occurrences). Further, there are a multitude of other markets that will be offering bigger odds (than pre match).

Such markets include the over/under 2.5 goals markets, and for layers, how about laying the 0-0 at odds far better than pre match? (layers like to see low odds, backers like to see high odds.)

The ideal scoreline to exploit at half-time is the 0-0 but as you will see with other examples later in
the article, we can be flexible.

Let’s look at a few examples of 2nd half betting.

EXAMPLE 1

8:00 FT Braga 3 : 2 Gil Vicente MC
Nuno Gomes 61’
Helder Barbosa 72’
89’ Claudio
Nuno Gomes 90’

In this Portuguese league match, Braga are 1.52 favourites against newly-promoted Gil Vicente.

Braga scored 2 goals against the bottom 6 sides at home last season. Gil Vicente conceded 2 goals against Braga and 3 against Porto (2 sides in the top 3 last season, with Braga 4th last season).

The 0-0 at half-time was therefore a shock… and, inevitably, in the second half the goals arrived.

Possible profit-making areas? – Match odds – back Braga, lay the draw.

Goals markets – back over 1.5 goals, over 2.5 goals.

Correct score market – lay 0-0.

EXAMPLE 2

19:00 FT Elfsborg 1 : 3 Gais h2h
49’ Jesper Floren
54’ Eric Bassombeng
65’Wanderson Do Carmo
Niklas Hult 73’

Elfsborg are 1.33 at home. It is 0-0 at half-time.

My conclusions for this match are repeated here verbatim:

“CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS –
standout 90% overs stats for Elfsborg and they are likely to score 2 minimum at home. similarly, Gais have only failed to score in three matches this season. Ergo over 2.5 goals in the bag already? Gais are one of those nightmare trading teams – why? They are so fecking inconsistent!!”

And the goals flowed in during the 2nd half albeit not for the team I expected. Still, a goals bet at halftime, at value odds, would have been successful.

EXAMPLE 3

13:30 FT Dundee United 0 : 1 Rangers MC
61’ Kyle Lafferty

In this match, rangers were priced at 1.59 away from home against a team they had scored 4-3-4-2 goals against in their last 4 head to heads.

My conclusions:

“CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – good defensive record for Rangers so early and an
emphatic Celtic win already makes this 1.59 of some appeal. Expect early tight exchanges here and the
prospect of a concerted period of 0-0 before a most likely Rangers first goal.”

The match was 0-0 at half-time. And Dundee United had a man sent off. Lay Dundee United at
half-time. Back Rangers to win the 2nd half.

Here’s another half-time score line we can exploit, in this example there is a general tendency for one of the teams to be a strong market leader.

However, the half-time result does not quite reflect the apparent dominance suggested by the odds:

EXAMPLE 4

20:45 FT Derry City 2 : 2 Drogheda h2h
4’ Brian Gannon
38’ Gavin Brennan
Gareth McGlynn 74’
Robert Duggan (og) 88’

Background – Derry are 1.14 favourites to win this match. Extremely strong favourites. However, this is not reflected in the half-time scoreline which sees outsiders Drogheda 0-2 up away from home.

Now is the time to back a comeback by the 1.14 favourites.

What can we do?

Back Derry at odds much better than the prematch odds of 1.14 (we would have lost on this
occasion as Derry did not win the match but would have backed a very short odds team at far greater odds).

Lay Drogheda in the match odds at 0-2 at odds much lower than were available pre match.

Lay 0-2 scoreline in the Correct Score Market.

RECENT EXAMPLES

As this article is taken from the archives of What really Wins Money, I want to include some up to date examples of how we can enter the betting market in time for the 2nd half.

Manchester United – a half time gold mine?

A look at Manchester United’s performances in some matches this season relay that after the Fergie halftime hairdryer, they tend to up their game.

2nd September Halftime Southampton 1 Manchester United 1

The Fulltime result? Southampton 2 Manchester United 3

15th September Halftime Manchester United 0 Wigan 0

Full time Manchester United 4 Wigan 0.

23rd September Halftime Liverpool 0 Manchester United 0

Full time Liverpool 1 Manchester United 2

As an aside, the above match is a great example of an alternative market we can focus in for half time betting, that is the 0-0 correct score market. Laying 0-0 at half time in matches where at least 1 goal is expected is a good policy because 1) we still have a 2nd half to go 2) the liability for the 0-0 correct score will have reduced dramatically from its pre match odds which is good news for layers.

10th November Halftime Aston Villa 1 Manchester United 0

Full time Aston Villa 2 Manchester United 3

17th November halftime Norwich 0 Manchester United 0 ( another opportunity to lay the 0-0 correct score)

Fulltime Norwich 1 Manchester United 0

24th November Halftime Manchester United 0 QPR 0

Fulltime Manchester United 3 QPR 1

Getting to know a team’s habits can also help in determining a halftime strategy. Southampton this season are scoring regularly. So what do you do, as on 10th November, when its 0-0 in the Saints v Swansea match?
You lay said 0-0 as you could have done in a couple of Manchester United matches. I did that at nice odds of 3.5 ( shorter the better for layers) and the 2nd half produced 2 goals.

Look out too for teams such as Real Madrid who as recently as 27th November were playing at home to Alcoyano in the Cup. Guess what the score was at halftime? 0-0. The fulltime score was 3-0 to Real Madrid.

In this instance if a 0-0 would be a huge shock, you can delay your entry into the betting market as late as possible in order to lay the 0-0 at shorter odds or indeed back Real Madrid at better odds. This tactic I call Delay-react-trade and is something for a future article.

Bottom line

Turn your football betting into 2nd half betting. Here are the advantages:

– The odds in all markets will offer greater value (using in-play facilities at bookmakers such as
www.bet365.com and www.betfair.com) because the expected result has not materialised.

– Backers can back their original fancies at better odds.

– Layers can lay markets at lower odds (and remember betting exchange layers want low odds when they lay).

– There will be greater urgency in the 2nd half for a fancied team to redress the balance. Halftime
team talks can work wonders (ask Benitez in THAT Champions League Final).

So which matches do you choose?

Quite simply, let the bookmakers do the work for you. Focus on matches where one team’s odds
indicate they are the hot favourites. I normally focus on matches where one team is 1.6 odds or over and wait until half-time.

If what was expected has not occurred by halftime, consider using in-play bookmakers or betting
exchanges like Betfair, and utilise the value odds available for both backers and layers.

Today's Racing Selection courtesy of Value Backing Extra.

Sandown 2.55 Dashing George 1/4pt win @ 4`1 Bet365 BOG

John Gibby – Well Handicapped Horses

Today we have the first part of an interview with John Gibby the author of Well Handicapped Horses

We also have details of two of John's well handicapped horses running today.

This interview was conducted by Steve Carter of the Betting School Insiders Club.


INTERVIEW WITH JON GIBBY

When did you first get interested in horse racing and betting?

Whilst living in Hong Kong between 1979/1980. My father and two elder brothers were regular visitors to the two racecourses (Sha Tin and Happy Valley) and I remember being impressed on the couple of occasions that they returned home and emptied some quite large amounts of money onto the dining-room table!

My first visit to a racetrack came a few years later when I was nineteen. That was when I came to believe that there was money to be made from betting on horses.

Although I lost what little money I had that day, by betting on horses that I liked the look of in the paddock, my brothers had been studying the form and they proceeded to go through the card.

The last winner (if memory serves me correctly) was a horse called Taskforce Victory which landed them a six horse accumulator and the Placepot and combined winnings of over £2000.

It was soon after that that I began to take a keen interest in the contents of the Sporting Life paper that they regularly bought and to start listening to what they had to say about form analysis!

Did your betting activities bring instant success or did it take a while to learn the ropes?

There was certainly no instant success. It took years before I began to show regular profits.

Both myself and my brothers spent years trying to develop those illusive winning systems but most of them were unceremoniously binned after the first inevitable losing run. I had a few decent successes with Lucky 15 bets which helped to recoup some of my losses but overall, although I didn’t keep records of every bet, I was certainly in deficit to the bookies.

The great majority of punters will spend years losing money whilst learning the trade and the great majority will continue to lose money because they can’t or don’t want to learn from their experience!

Were there any early influences that shaped your approach to successful betting?

Yes, without a doubt the biggest influence was Nick Mordin’s ground breaking book Betting for a Living.

Nick’s work was outstanding, primarily because it was such a huge step up on previous British racing literature. It was this book that showed me how to work out my own draw statistics and also introduced me to pace analysis. More importantly, it also helped me to discover that there were numerous excellent American books waiting to be read and works by authors such as Andy Beyer, Tom Ainslie, William Quirin and Tom Brohammer completely transformed my understanding of form.

How would you best sum up your own style of betting?

Periodic and selective. I don’t bet professionally and I am still in the same full-time occupation that I joined twenty-five years ago. For me, betting has been, and always will be, a hobby that I aim to make a few thousand pounds out of each year, whether that be by writing books or by betting. Because of my job (which involves shift work) I don’t have the time or the energy to commit to the necessary amount of form study over long periods of time.

I tend to give it maximum effort from April through to July, betting exclusively on the Flat and then I will have just an occasional dabble during the rest of the year.

I also bet selectively. I identify horses that I believe to be well-handicapped (and therefore probable future winners) and I keep a list of them to follow. Most of them are lightly raced three-year-olds which I look to back in the first half of the season (whilst they remain well-handicapped).

Most of my analysis is done when looking at the results pages published in the Weekender every Wednesday. I scour the results looking for horses that have run well despite being disadvantaged by the various biases that are present to varying degrees in each and every race. I am also looking out for horses that have clocked fast times. For a fuller explanation of the methodology, readers will have to buy my latest book!

What led you to writing your first book “Betting on Flat Handicaps?”

I used to subscribe to the weekly publication Raceform Update and I particularly enjoyed reading the letters and systems submitted by readers to the Sports Forum page. About sixteen years ago I began sending in my own letters.

They seemed to be well received in the main and because I was making good profits at the time from the methodology I was using I decided to take it a step further and write a book. I sent in a couple of chapters to Raceform with an explanation of what would be in the remainder of the book and to my surprise they said ‘yes’!

How was your own P&L affected by the disclosure of the methods described in the book?

It is difficult to know. The method I used then was built around my knowledge of draw bias, which for a good few years gave me a significant edge over the majority of other punters.

That began to diminish as more and more people became aware of the power of the draw and the odds about the well-drawn runners started to tumble. Perhaps my book contributed to that to some extent, but I think that Graham Wheldon’s books about the draw, which were published around that time, were more influential in changing people’s perceptions.

More generally, I would say that it is a truism that winning methods normally have a limited lifetime because inevitably other people will catch on to them and they eventually become over bet as a consequence.

The game keeps slowly changing and you have to keep adapting your methods in an attempt to stay one step ahead of other punters. There is of course no guarantee that you can keep successfully doing that and that is why I have always been reluctant to risk packing up the day job in favour of full-time punting.

In your opinion where does the average every day punter go wrong given that the statistics generally quote that 98% make a loss?

They bet in too many races and on the wrong type of horse. Most people would improve their chance of success if they became a lot more selective and put more money on fewer bets. Another truism in my view is that you cannot construct good bets every time you open the Racing Post, but instead you have to wait for them to come along.

I am reminded of this most years during Royal Ascot week and the Cheltenham Festival. I meet up with one of my brothers and we treat the weeks as a bit of fun and try to find the winner of every race. More often than not we fail dismally!

In part two tomorrow John talks about his current methods for finding winners.

There are two of John's well handicapped horses running today…


Today's Selections courtesy of Well Handicapped Horses

4.00pm Nottingham – Future Security

Related to five winners and cost 160,000gns as a yearling. He was a relatively late foal (April 8) and will make a better 3yo once he matures and based on his 2yo form he gave the impression that he might make into Listed class.

This season he won a class 4 3yo handicap at Bath in early August and finished down the field next time out in the very hot class 2 Melrose Stakes at York. Last time out having been close up he weakened out of it on his first run on firm going and has been dropped a couple of pounds in the handicap. The forecast going today is good to soft and he drops back to a trip more in line with his two wins to date which were over 9f and 10f. Has proven form in the conditions and the ease in class may be able to bring out a return to form for this lightly raced colt should he take his chance.

13/2 Bet365 – win bet

8.30pm Kempton – Eraada

Related to no less than 12 winners including the 118 rated Almutawake so she has a lot to live up to. Being by Medician she is probably going to be suited by a sound surface. She won on her final start as a 2yo in a maiden at Catterick over 7f and did well from a poor draw. Hopefully she will get better with age and a rating of 73 looks manageable.

So far this season two runs have not shown much and she now runs off a mark of 69. Interestingly she is upped in trip to 11f for the first time having not into either of her starts over 7f and 8f as a 3yo and the trainer certainly knows the time of day when it comes to trip. This is her easiest assignment and given she stays then may have a lively chance.

14/1 Bet365 – each way bet

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