Once we have found a dog that looks like it will have a favourable position, ideally in front, at the first bend and will not get any trouble on the way to the bend then all you need to know now is whether it is fast enough to hold onto its lead.
It is very common to find a dog that will get a clear run around and will lead most of the way in a race only to lose in the closing stages.
These sprint type dogs just don’t have the stamina to hold on to the winning line and are a trap for anybody using the kind of strategy that we have discussed here.
The key clue to whether we are dealing with this kind of dog is its past race positions. If it has led previously all the way but still not won then you need to find a reason why it might hang on today. EG If in a previous race the positions are shown as 2111 but the dog didn’t win the race then this is a danger signal.
Maybe it is an easier race today maybe a lower grade. Maybe it is fitter today, if the last run came after rest or it is a puppy who is improving. If you can’t find a reason then maybe you should give this one a miss.
Because graded races are in theory constructed such that any dog could win, other than the types mentioned above, I tend to not pay too much attention to the previous times recorded by each dog. As long as my selection is not way slower than the opposition then I am likely to go with it.
The exceptions to this are where I can see a reason why one of the opposition might improve. These include…
Puppies. Young dogs that are just starting out on their careers which can improve in leaps and bounds.
Rested dogs. Dogs that have been off for a rest and are not yet running to their pre rest form. EG If they were running A4 grade before their rest but are now reappearing in an A6 then it is likely that at sometime soon they will return to the previous grade IE they are better than their opposition.
Bitches that have been in season. Bitches don’t run when they are in season. When they return they tend to find significant improvement at around 16 weeks after their season commenced. This tendency is significant enough to be a profitable strategy in itself.
One final point to keep in mind is that you don’t have to bet just one selection in a race. If you have narrowed a race down to two or three contenders then consider splitting your stakes between them.
Splitting stakes across multiple selections is a strategy I use a lot in greyhound racing. You can either bet the same stake on each dog or adjust your stake so you make the same profit whichever of your selections wins.
You can use our dutching tool that will help you determine the correct stakes for dutching selections.
And that is the method that I use to find winning greyhound selections. As with any betting method you are looking for a dog with a strong chance of winning and one that has a better chance than the available odds suggest. There is no clear cut selection ever, because if a dog is an obvious winner then the odds will reflect that.
But that said I have frequently found selections that I am sure will win, barring accidents, at 4/1 and 5/1.
Racing Post Alternative
The boss has just set us all up with access to the Geegeez racecards and so today I'm having a play with them.
As well as all the data and comments that you find on the Racing Post site there are also a host of other features that help to make sense of a race.
Including what the Geegeez guys call Instant Expert.
Instant Expert gives a colour coded indicator of which horses are suited to today's conditions and help you to instantly see who the likely contenders in a race are.
So today, my first stop was The Shortlist which is another Geegeez feature that lists the horses with a mostly green profile in the Instant Expert.
The second horse listed on the shortlist was Albonny in the 6.55 at Kempton, I skipped the first because it was an odds on favourite (Clondaw Court).
So The Shortlist told me that Albonny had a mostly green profile so I then skipped off to look at the 6.55 for a closer look.
And what I've found is a horse that prefers the All Weather to turf and has won 3 of his 5 starts at Kempton.
Here's the Instant Expert for this race…
Click to Enlarge
The other useful feature is that when you look at the full form for a horse, you can filter it for certain types of races. So I can check a box and then only see the All Weather runs.
Here are those All Weather runs, the last three were all wins…
Anyway I'm going to have a small bet on Albonny and then I'm off to play again with the Geegeez Racecards.
You can check them out here http://www.geegeez.co.uk/race-cards
Today's Selection
Kempton 6.55 Albonny – 11/2 Bet 365
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