Tag Archives: winner

Create your own speed ratings

Over the last few years I have created a number of different ratings for our own use and clients but these have all be form related.

So I guess it was only a matter of time before the question of speed ratings came up.

Some people argue that speed is the only real way to judge a horses chance of winning a race…

But as with all things racing, it is never quite that simple.

Speed of course is related to distance.

It is the time it took the horse to run the race divided by the distance that gives us the speed at which the horse travelled.

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250 points profit, Three Week Free Trial

Today I want to tell you about a very special service that I’ve been using to find a lot of winners recently and today you can try it for free for 21 days.

The numbers in the headline are from an actual live service called Stat of the Day. As the name suggests, this is a one-a-day service with a strong statistical background. Since it started in November 2011, the service has registered 292 wins from 1031 bets (better than 28% winners), and has returned a profit for its readers of £2,505 to £10 level stakes.

Those aren’t fictional figures either. Rather, every single bet has been recorded and tracked on site… and followed and backed by over 650 loyal members.

Anyway, like I said, I’m telling you about it today because you can put this brilliant info to work for you for the next three weeks, gratis.Continue Reading

20/1 Cheltenham Bet

Today I have a Cheltenham bet from a tipster who made 65 points profit at last years festival and who set up the year for many of his members.

The bet is one leg of a yankee and if you want the other three legs there are details of a very special and cheap offer at the end of this post.

The four bets together will pay £29,248 for a 50 pence each way yankee if he pulls this off!

The Value Backing service is in great form at the moment and is already 33 points up for 2015 with a 118% ROI.

There have been winners this year already at  20/1, 18/1, 12/1 and shorter.

Here’s the selection from Value Backing…

UPDATE – See The World will not run in the Champion Bumper 🙁

Champion Bumper Wednesday 11th March – See The World 1pt win @ 20’1 Betfred 

When it come to ante post betting at Cheltenham one of my favourite angles is to look for something out of the ordinary in a previous performance. Way back in 2005 I remember watching the great Kauto Star on just his second start for Paul Nicholls. He went through the race cruising in second gear only to fall at the second last. Back then a jockey could remount and Walsh having seen the winner go past him got back onboard and only just failed to win in a photo. Now the opposition may not have been world beaters, but that dramatic race indicated to me that Kauto could be something special and so it proved !
Now back in January this year at a cold damp day at Wincanton See The World put up something akin to that Kauto performance. He basically stopped to a walk 2 furlongs from home having taken up the lead and then hung left. What happened next is something I have never seen in a race. He started running again having given the ones that went by him 15 lengths start, caught them up and then breezed on by the runner up in the final 100 yard to win by 4 plus lengths and I was gobsmacked ! It is all well and good giving a few lengths  or so away at the start of a race, but 2 furlongs out, that should not have been possible.
Now again he may not have beaten much, but that performance was something out of the ordinary and as such I had to back See The World. He may well be a world beater only time will tell. But whatever happens at Cheltenham that performance at Wincanton is something I doubt I or anyone else will see again any time soon.
Carl Nicholson and Value Backing members cleaned up at last years festival with a whopping £653 profit to £10 stakes, with many members staking and winning much more.

This year you can join him on a special package for Cheltenham 2015.

Here’s what you get…

  • A selection in every race at the 2015 festival
  • Access to all the Value Backing main service and Value Backing Extra selections from now until the festival
  • Access to all the Value Backing Daily selections every day from now until the festival
  • The sooner you join the more bets you get 🙂
  • The Value Backing ante-post Cheltenham Yankee, pays £29,248 for a 50 pence each way stake – the sooner you join the bigger the prices you can get!
  • Optional – discounted ongoing membership to Value Backing

The price is just £20 – Click Here to secure your place now.

Racing Tips – Nick Hardman

Today we have my favourite column of the week, the Nick Hardman – Betting Insiders column.

Before I hand you over to Nick just to mention that there is a qualifier from the Tongue Tie system, which we are paper trading currently and that’s 16:15 Sandown Paddy The Stout.

If you enjoy Nick’s columns as much as I do then do check out the Betting School Insiders Club where you can enjoy more of his wisdom.

Here’s Nick…

We have jumps racing at Fakenham and Sandown today and Nicky Henderson’s runners might be worth a second look in the betting markets given his record at both tracks.

Since January 2011 he has sent 30 runners to Fakenham and 13 have won. However, backing each of those runners to level stakes would have resulted in a very small loss at SP.

Dig a little deeper and we find that his Fakenham runners are 1-6 in chases, 8-19 in hurdles races and 4-5 in bumper races.

Taking a closer look at the hurdlers we find they are 5-10 in novice races, 2-5 in maiden races and 1-4 in handicaps.

He has the following entries at the time of writing:

1.45 Medieval Chapel (Beginners’ Chase)
3.25pm Clean Sheet (Novices’ Hurdle)
4.35pm Clemency (Mares’ NH Flat Race)

At Sandown, Nicky Henderson has had 35 winners from 145 runners in the last 5 years at a strike rate of 24% and shows a level stakes profit of £36.07.

His hurdlers are 26-95 (27% strike rate) and show a profit of £47.72.

He has won with 8 of his last 18 hurdlers at the course for a profit of £27.69.

The Barry Geraghty/ Nicky Henderson partnership has teamed up for 17 hurdle winners at Sandown from 42 runners at an impressive strike rate of 41% and a level stakes profit of £41.12.

Nicky Henderson has the following entries at Sandown today:

2.30pm Broxbourne (Geraghty) & Hel Tara (Mares’ Novice Hurdle)

One of the feature races of the weekend is the Grand National Trial at Haydock.

Last Friday our trends analysis identified Violet Dancer as a likely candidate for the Betfair Hurdle and I am hoping for more of the same this weekend.

The key trends are a win over 3m or further, aged 9yo – 11yo, not raced in the last 31 days, raced over 3m 5f or further, a top two finish LTO and trained by Paul Nicholls, Lucinda Russell or Venetia Williams.

In addition, only 3 winners since 1997 have carried more than 11st to victory on soft or heavy going.

There is one horse who ticks all the trends boxes apart from the trainer box and that is Harry The Viking.

He has not won since his novice days from where he went on to finish runner-up to Teaforthree in the National Hunt Chase at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival.

That run earned him a rating of 143 and he competed in the Scottish National, The Hennessy and the Grand National after that.

However, he failed to build on that early promise and his mark plummeted to 122.

Off that mark he ran his best race in a long time when runner-up to Lie Forrit last time out when 2lbs out of the handicap. He has been raised just 2lbs for that effort.

Haydock Grand National Trial – Harry The Viking @20/1 (e/w)

At that price he would be the biggest winner since Rambling Minster @18/1 in 2009 but Rigadin De Beauchene won this @16/1 last year and 8 of the last 12 winners returned SPs of 10/1 or higher.

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