Tag Archives: yards

Create your own speed ratings

Over the last few years I have created a number of different ratings for our own use and clients but these have all be form related.

So I guess it was only a matter of time before the question of speed ratings came up.

Some people argue that speed is the only real way to judge a horses chance of winning a race…

But as with all things racing, it is never quite that simple.

Speed of course is related to distance.

It is the time it took the horse to run the race divided by the distance that gives us the speed at which the horse travelled.

Continue Reading

Hamilton Trainer Trends

Today we have an article from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders where he looks at the Hamilton trainers for tonights meeting.

—–

Hamilton Trainer Trends

At first glance Keith Dalgleish does not appear to be a trainer to follow at Hamilton, despite a highly respectable strike rate of 14.95% in the last 5 years.

Backing all of his 194 runners at the track since 2010 would have resulted in an overall loss of £21.34 to £1 level stakes. However, if we focus solely on his runners in non-handicap races then we see a different story altogether.

Keith Dalgleish (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Keith Dalgleish (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Click to Enlarge

The record of his runners in non-handicap races is not only highly impressive but they are highly profitable too with a 25% win strike rate and a 50% place strike rate.

Keith Dalgleish (runners in non-handicap races at Hamilton since 2010)

Keith Dalgleish (runners in non-handicap races at Hamilton since 2010)

Click to Enlarge

 

His last 5 runners at the track in non-handicap races have finished 31121 at prices of 20/1, 7/1, 5/2, 50/1 and 9/4. On Friday he has the following entries in non-handicap races:

6.40pm Sir Acclam & Battleranger in the 6f maiden

Battleranger ran 2nd to an odds-on Mark Johnston fancy at the track last time out. That was only his second start and he outran his odds of 50/1 by some way. Sir Acclam was last of 9 on his sole start at Ayr.

Another trainer with a great record at Hamilton is Kevin Ryan. Since 2010 his runners at the course show a level stakes profit of £27.78 and a healthy strike rate of 23.33%.

Kevin Ryan (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Kevin Ryan (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Click to Enlarge

His 3yo runners do particularly well.

Kevin Ryan (3yo runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Kevin Ryan (3yo runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Click to Enlarge

He has the following entries on Friday:

7.40pm Hopes N Dreams & Blaine in the 6f class 2 handicap
8.45pm Keep To The Beat (3yo) in the 1m 3f handicap

Hopes N Dream absolutely loves it around Hamilton. The 6yo has course figures of 111711111. That’s 8 wins from 9 visits to the course including a last time out C&D win over useful yardstick Tangerine Trees.

Blaine is also entered in the same race but this former Gimcrack winner is a riskier betting proposition. He has failed to live up to expectations after winning his maiden and the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes as a 2yo.

Once rated 107 his mark has tumbled to 96 and he unseated his rider last time out. He is undoubtedly talented as shown on his one good run this year when 3rd of 20 in a good handicap at York behind Aetna and Baccarat.

It may be he saves his best for York (form figures 113) but it would be folly to dismiss his chances out of hand here. Keep To The Beat is still a maiden after 9 starts but ran his best race last time out when a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 14 at Beverley. He stepped up from a mile to 10f that day and the extra furlong may well suit.

Our final trainer to follow at Hamilton is Mrs Marjorie Fife. Her record with her runners at the course speaks for itself:

Mrs Marjorie Fife (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Mrs Marjorie Fife (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Click to Enlarge

She is 2-2 this season at Hamilton and both those victorious horses return to the track on Friday.

7.10pm Mandalay King in the 6f handicap
9.10pm Camerooney in the 1m 1f handicap

Mandalay King is a 9yo now but he is still competitive at his given level. His overall course figures are 1723172241581. All four of his victories have come at class 5 or lower and he goes in the 6f class 5 handicap on Friday evening.

Camerooney is even older at 11 but he is another who loves it around Hamilton with two wins and a third place finish from three starts. Shirley Teasdale is booked to ride both and takes off a useful 5lbs which should see both horses competitive.

Finally, don’t forget we have previously highlighted (and profited from) Tom Dascombe’s runners at Haydock and the Godolphin 2yo runners at Newmarket trained by Charlie Appleby and Saeed bin Suroor. Both courses have meetings this Friday and Saturday so be sure to keep an eye out for their runners over the next two days.

Profitable Yarmouth Trainers

I guess there are a lot of race courses that are out on a limb, as it were, geographically.

Yarmouth is local to me and I know what a pain it is to travel there from anywhere else in the country. I also remember years ago there was a system doing the rounds based on betting the runners of Newmarket based trainers.

The theory being that the big HQ yards would try out their hotshots at Yarmouth because it is relatively local to them.

So this morning I thought I’d run a report on top performing trainers at Yarmouth and see what I come up with.

Amazingly there is a trainer with a 40% strike rate (Ed Walker) at Yarmouth from all runs and another with a 39% strike rate (Mrs L Wadham).

Profitable Yarmouth Trainers

Below I have listed all the trainers with a 20% or higher strike rate, who have had more than 10 runners at Yarmouth.

Baker, George
Bravery, G C
Burke, Mrs K
Carson, Anthony
Cecil, H R A (Lady Cecil!)
Cumani, L M
Fahey, R A
Haggas, W J
Hannon, R
Haynes, A B
Hutchinson, Alison
McBride, P J
Meehan, B J
Mohammed, Ismail
Noseda, J
Powell, B G
Varian, Roger
Wadham, Mrs L
Walker, Ed
Wall, C F
Williams, Ian

Following these trainers at Yarmouth betting all horses they send would have returned a whopping 51% Return on Investment at SP over the last 3 1/2 years.

Today the following runners are trained by a trainer from our high strike rate list above…

5.50 Orlando Rogue
6.50 Censorious (trained by Ed Walker), Hamble & Sermarel
7.20 Venus Marina
7.50 Peacemaker
8.20 Piemans Girl, Roring Samson
8.50 Vodka Chaser

More Draw Bias & Bot Update

So following on from our successes at Pontefract and Chester recently I am routinely looking at the draw stats everyday for the days racing and I’ve found some strange numbers for Catterick.

More on those in a minute.

First up I’m still getting a lot of questions about the Mystery Horse Bot, so a quick update on that.

In June from when it was first released it has made 34.12 points profit after commission, so if you’re staking a tenner a race that’s £341.20.

It always surprises me how big some people stake these things, but I saw a screenshot the other day from a user who was staking £100 per race. So nearly £3500 for him!

So far in July it is 11.75 points up. There are still a few places here http://mysteryhorsebot.com

Ok so Catterick. I had a look this morning at the draw and there has been a profit following stall 2 in handicaps. You’ll remember that I said the other day that using handicaps to research produced cleaner stats.

My next step was to break the results down by distance. The logic here being that the start and hence the stalls are in a different position for each distance.

Here’s what I saw…

Catterick Draw BiasLook at the strike rate for stall 2 over the 1m4f and 1m6f. The average for all stalls is 9.5%.

Now I dont know Catterick very well and the Racing Post site doesnt show the start position for 1m6f, but those numbers tell me there is a big advantage in play. The 1m4f actually is the 1m3f 214 yards.

Here’s the numbers for all stalls in handicaps of between 1m4f and 1m6f.

Catterick Draw Analysis

27% for stall 2!

We have two races today over the 1m3f 214 yards, both handicaps, they are the 3.40 and the 4.40.

In the 3.40 the 7/4 favourite Al Thumama is in stall 2. In the 4.40 Only You Maggie has the stall. She is up in trip and has only 1 lifetime win even though she is 6 years old and is 22/1. It’s hard to make a case for her even with the draw.

But stranger things have happened.

Today’s Selection

Catterick 3.40 Al Thumama – win bet – 7/4 Bet 365, Paddy Power, Bet Victor

 

 

 

 

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close