Tag Archives: yesterdays

Hutching Calculator – Hutching Profits

Following from yesterdays introduction to Dutching, today I want to tell you about Hutching and the Oddschecker Hutching calculator.

The Hutching calculator can be used like the Dutching calculator but instead of taking an equal profit whichever of your selections win. You can instead bias your bet towards a particular outcome.

So you could take all your profit from what you consider to be the most likely outcome and break even on other selected outcomes.

So you are hedging your bet, you have a bet, you expect it to win, but you want to cover some other outcomes so you hedge, hence the hutching calculator.

As an example Chelsea are 1.19 to beat West Ham tonight, so they are expected to win. If we think that West Ham are unlikely to score and Chelsea will win we could frame a bet using the hutching calculator.

If we decide to bet the correct scores of 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 & 4-0 which are priced up at 9.6, 7.2, 8.2, 11.5 respectively.

By adjusting our stakes we can pretty much break even on 1-0, 3-0 & 4-0 and take a profit of £38.60 on 2-0, for a total stake of £10.

If we've judged things correctly then that return compares favourably with the £1.90 profit from a straight win bet.

The image below shows the calculator and the stakes required.

The trouble with this hutching calculator is that you have to manually play around with the stakes to get your desired result.

And if all your bets were in the same market, then it's probably just as easy to do this directly into Betfair. But in this case our bets are spread across 2 markets.

Nevertheless this is a a useful way to frame bets to get better value and to bias bets towards what you consider to be the most likely outcomes.

Don't follow the crowd and just bet what is offered to you, hutch your way to profit.

Hutching Calculator Chelsea West Ham

Odds On National Hunt Trainers System

Carrying on from yesterdays National Hunt Jockeys system today we have our Odds On National Hunt Trainers System.

The rules are simply to back the charges of the trainers listed below when they run in a National Hunt race in October to March, where they start at 6/4 or shorter.

The results for 2014 were as follows…

Runs = 398
Wins = 249
Strike Rate = 62%
Profit at industry SP =69.79
Return on Investment = 17.53%

The Trainers to follow are…

Trainer Data
Trainer
Bailey, K C Bromhead, Henry De
Elliott, Gordon Ferguson, J P
Fry, Harry Hobbs, P J
King, A King, N B
Longsdon, C E McCain Jnr, D
Meade, Noel Newland, Dr R D P
Quinn, J J Richards, N G
Skelton, Daniel Twiston-Davies, N A
Vaughan, Tim Williams, Evan

 

There is a qualifier today

12:35 Wetherby Devilment – win bet – 1/2 Paddy Power

Free Football Tips

If you like to know exactly why your tipster makes the bets he makes and you like to see just how much work goes into making winning selections then you'll love Mark Foley.

Mark made 36 points profit in December with his Premier League bets and today I have his analysis and selections for the Sunderland V Liverpool game for you.

Last time we gave one of Mark's analysis here it made a tasty profit for readers and wise owls joined his service here for just £9.99

http://footballforecasts.uk

Racing fans, don't forget Nick Hardman gave his Lanzarote tips on yesterdays post.

Over to Mark Foley…

Sunderland v Liverpool 12.45 BT Sport1

Liverpool have been improving of late and their only defeat in the last 8 came at Old Trafford, they have also made the semi finals of the Capital One cup and are in the 4th round of the FA cup. However, you wouldn’t want one of their players to take your dog for a walk, they are still struggling to hold onto a lead and threw away a two goal lead against Leicester last week.

Sunderland have looked far more secure since Costel Pantilimon took over between the sticks, he has the best saves to shots ratio of any Premier League goalkeeper this season (78%) and although Sunderland have won just one of their last 10 league matches, they have only lost three of those ten games.

The Black Cats have won just one of their last 10 Premier League games against Liverpool but 4 of the games have ended as draws. Liverpool have won five of their last eight Premier League visits to the Stadium of Light (W5 D1 L2). One of those defeats back in 2009 saw the only Sunderland goal scored by a certain B.Ball; whatever happened to Mr beach ball?

Sunderland have scored a higher proportion of their goals in the final 15 minutes of Premier League games than any other side (33%) and they have also picked up more yellow cards (52) than any other team in the top flight. Sunderland to come from behind and draw looks like a bit of value at 8/1 with Hills.

Liverpool have only been losing once after 45 in their last 15 PL games and have been all square in all but 3 of the last 13.

Sunderland have either been drawing 0-0 or 1-1 at HT in all but one of their last 10 PL games. Look towards a blank first half.

Sunderland have played every team currently in the top seven at home apart from Southampton and four of the six games have ended as draws. All but 3 of Sunderland’s 10 goals at home came in the first half hour of the games.

Liverpool have played five teams currently in the top half of the table away from Anfield and have lost four of them. If Sunderland do get an early goal, there is a good chance it will be Adam Johnson who has scored in three of his last four Premier League games.

Seven of the last 11 goals against the Black Cats were scored by Luis Suarez (plus two by Daniel Sturridge). All but one of Raheem Sterling’s 4 goals have come away from home and as long as Liverpool don’

My bets:

Draw/Draw: BetVictor 17/4

HT/FT correct score 0-0/1-1: Powers 16/1

Sunderland to come from behind and draw: Hills 8/1

Adam Johnson 1st goal: BetVictor 13/1

Also considered:

Correct score 1-1: BetVictor 13/2

Correct score HT 0-0: Boylesports 2/1

Raheem Sterling 1st goal: Widely available 5/1

Good Luck
Mark Foley

http://footballforecasts.uk

Saturday Footy and Racing Tips

It's Saturday and thats the day that we have to make our Super 6 entries to have a chance of winning £250,000 for no entry fee.

http://dailypunt.com/super6

We also have top class racing at Aintree and Sandown and Nick has already tipped up selections in three races…

Sandown 3.00pm God’s Own @9/2 and Somersby @10/1 (each-way alternative)

Aintree 1.30pm Benbens @20/1, Knock A Hand @20/1 & Renard @25/1 (trends horses), Across The Bay @25/1 (each-way alternative), Saint Are @14/1 (best handicapped)

Ainree 3.25pm Rebel Rebellion @8/1 (trends horse) and Dolatulo 14/1 (each-way alternative)

You can read the reasoning behind these selections in yesterdays post.

And we have our regular Best 5 away perm from The Alternative Punters Syndicate. (Get one month free of their racing and football tips here)

Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways'
(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)
CHELSEA
ARSENAL
CELTIC
FORFAR
PETERHEAD

The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 5 Aways' are available with…

William Hill

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