Tag Archives: yesterdays

Odds On National Hunt Trainers System

Carrying on from yesterdays National Hunt Jockeys system today we have our Odds On National Hunt Trainers System.

The rules are simply to back the charges of the trainers listed below when they run in a National Hunt race in October to March, where they start at 6/4 or shorter.

The results for 2014 were as follows…

Runs = 398
Wins = 249
Strike Rate = 62%
Profit at industry SP =69.79
Return on Investment = 17.53%

The Trainers to follow are…

Trainer Data
Trainer
Bailey, K C Bromhead, Henry De
Elliott, Gordon Ferguson, J P
Fry, Harry Hobbs, P J
King, A King, N B
Longsdon, C E McCain Jnr, D
Meade, Noel Newland, Dr R D P
Quinn, J J Richards, N G
Skelton, Daniel Twiston-Davies, N A
Vaughan, Tim Williams, Evan

 

There is a qualifier today

12:35 Wetherby Devilment – win bet – 1/2 Paddy Power

Free Football Tips

If you like to know exactly why your tipster makes the bets he makes and you like to see just how much work goes into making winning selections then you'll love Mark Foley.

Mark made 36 points profit in December with his Premier League bets and today I have his analysis and selections for the Sunderland V Liverpool game for you.

Last time we gave one of Mark's analysis here it made a tasty profit for readers and wise owls joined his service here for just £9.99

http://footballforecasts.uk

Racing fans, don't forget Nick Hardman gave his Lanzarote tips on yesterdays post.

Over to Mark Foley…

Sunderland v Liverpool 12.45 BT Sport1

Liverpool have been improving of late and their only defeat in the last 8 came at Old Trafford, they have also made the semi finals of the Capital One cup and are in the 4th round of the FA cup. However, you wouldn’t want one of their players to take your dog for a walk, they are still struggling to hold onto a lead and threw away a two goal lead against Leicester last week.

Sunderland have looked far more secure since Costel Pantilimon took over between the sticks, he has the best saves to shots ratio of any Premier League goalkeeper this season (78%) and although Sunderland have won just one of their last 10 league matches, they have only lost three of those ten games.

The Black Cats have won just one of their last 10 Premier League games against Liverpool but 4 of the games have ended as draws. Liverpool have won five of their last eight Premier League visits to the Stadium of Light (W5 D1 L2). One of those defeats back in 2009 saw the only Sunderland goal scored by a certain B.Ball; whatever happened to Mr beach ball?

Sunderland have scored a higher proportion of their goals in the final 15 minutes of Premier League games than any other side (33%) and they have also picked up more yellow cards (52) than any other team in the top flight. Sunderland to come from behind and draw looks like a bit of value at 8/1 with Hills.

Liverpool have only been losing once after 45 in their last 15 PL games and have been all square in all but 3 of the last 13.

Sunderland have either been drawing 0-0 or 1-1 at HT in all but one of their last 10 PL games. Look towards a blank first half.

Sunderland have played every team currently in the top seven at home apart from Southampton and four of the six games have ended as draws. All but 3 of Sunderland’s 10 goals at home came in the first half hour of the games.

Liverpool have played five teams currently in the top half of the table away from Anfield and have lost four of them. If Sunderland do get an early goal, there is a good chance it will be Adam Johnson who has scored in three of his last four Premier League games.

Seven of the last 11 goals against the Black Cats were scored by Luis Suarez (plus two by Daniel Sturridge). All but one of Raheem Sterling’s 4 goals have come away from home and as long as Liverpool don’

My bets:

Draw/Draw: BetVictor 17/4

HT/FT correct score 0-0/1-1: Powers 16/1

Sunderland to come from behind and draw: Hills 8/1

Adam Johnson 1st goal: BetVictor 13/1

Also considered:

Correct score 1-1: BetVictor 13/2

Correct score HT 0-0: Boylesports 2/1

Raheem Sterling 1st goal: Widely available 5/1

Good Luck
Mark Foley

http://footballforecasts.uk

Saturday Footy and Racing Tips

It's Saturday and thats the day that we have to make our Super 6 entries to have a chance of winning £250,000 for no entry fee.

http://dailypunt.com/super6

We also have top class racing at Aintree and Sandown and Nick has already tipped up selections in three races…

Sandown 3.00pm God’s Own @9/2 and Somersby @10/1 (each-way alternative)

Aintree 1.30pm Benbens @20/1, Knock A Hand @20/1 & Renard @25/1 (trends horses), Across The Bay @25/1 (each-way alternative), Saint Are @14/1 (best handicapped)

Ainree 3.25pm Rebel Rebellion @8/1 (trends horse) and Dolatulo 14/1 (each-way alternative)

You can read the reasoning behind these selections in yesterdays post.

And we have our regular Best 5 away perm from The Alternative Punters Syndicate. (Get one month free of their racing and football tips here)

Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways'
(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)
CHELSEA
ARSENAL
CELTIC
FORFAR
PETERHEAD

The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 5 Aways' are available with…

William Hill

Tony McCoy OBE

Following on from Monday's article today I'm going to look at some stats from Champion Jockey Tony McCoy.

By the way yesterdays eachway bet that placed second was from the system we created on Monday.

Ok, so backing all of Tony's mounts would as you'd expect returns a loss, but not as a big a loss as I expected at 15% of stakes lost.

If we break that down by race type we see that Hurdles perform best with an excellent 27% strike rate from all hurdle start and a loss of just 11%.

Tony McCoy by Race Type Table

At this stage of my research I was pondering where to go next and looking down the list of factors and say ‘Going'.

My first thought was that, that is a factor that depends more on the particular horse than the jockey, but then I pictured AP pumping away, driving a tired horse home and thought I bet he does better in Heavy going than other jocks. And he does.

Over the last two years backing all of McCoys Hurdle rides on Heavy going has produced a 25% ROI and a 31% strike rate.

However over the long term this strategy has been pretty much break even, so maybe something to keep in mind rather than to bet blindly.

For today I'm going to wrap up with a look at how he performs for different trainers.

My thoughts are that as I've said for previous jockeys that I would expect them to be a losing proposition for their own stable rides, just because they have to ride everything and that seems to be the case with Jonjo O Neill rides showing a loss.

The table below shows every Hurdle ride since January 1st 2013 and I've sorted it by ROI to help spot the trainers who make a profit when they book the real McCoy.

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

 

Today's Selection

2:00 Ludlow Sin Bin – win bet – 4/1 Bet Victor

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close