Hi all,
It’s the second part of my look ahead to the weekend’s big race action. Today the focus is on the action this side of the Irish Sea.
As I mentioned in yesterday’s column whilst I have several fancies at the Dublin Racing Festival, I’m holding fire betting until I know final declarations. I suspect plenty of the Grade 1’s will go to the short-priced favourites with Willie Mullins plundering most of them. That said the odd bubble will burst and reputations will be tarnished. On the flip side some horses will enhance their reputations.
The racing in Britain this weekend isn’t as good quality wise as at Leopardstown. However, there is a competitive looking Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown on Saturday. Just seven were entered in the race at Monday’s final confirmation state. However, if all seven line-up it looks like a competitive race. The rest of the British action this weekend is mostly handicaps at Sandown and Musselburgh, but they have the potential to be good betting heats if the field sizes hold up.
Sandown: Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices' Chase (Grade 1) – 2m 4f
There’s £56,950 on offer to the winner of the Grade 1 contest.
Hermes Allen a winner on chase debut, was put in his place when a 11-length 2nd of 6 to Il Est Francais in Kauto Star Novices' Chase at Kempton last time. That remains the best form shown so far by the 7 entries and 5/2 looks a fair price for him to return to winning ways.
Irish challenger Corbett’s Cross is next in the ante post betting. He came up against a high-class novice in Grangeclare West at Leopardstown last time. Connections probably see this as a winnable Grade 1 and he may be better than I think he is.
Le Patron won the Grade 1 Betfair Henry VIII Novices' Chase here (1m 7 ½ f). He’s a previous C&D winner so the return to 2m 4f won’t be an issue for the 6-year-old.
Colonel Harry looked in need of further when runner-up to Le Patron in the Henry VIII. He’s since gone onto win the Grade 2 Towton Novices' Chase (2m 3 ½ f) at Wetherby.
Trewlane was runner-up to Colonel Harry in the Towton and might well have won but for hanging right around the bends. Going this way around looks a plus but he might need further in this company.
Djelo was hampered and fell at the first in a Grade 2 at Lingfield 13 days ago. Prior to that he was 3-3 over fences including a Grade 2 at Ascot. It’s best to forgive his last effort and he’s not of this.
Scilly Isles Novices' Chase Verdict:
If the main protagonists are declared this looks like a competitive race. With Djelo, Trelawne and Nickle Back all possible runners there should be a good gallop on. That will suit Hermes Allen and even more Corbett’s Cross and Colonel Harry. Hermes Allen is the one to beat but I do think Le Patron’s Grade 1 success has been slightly underestimated and given he does well here could be the value in the race.
Musselburgh: Scottish Cheltenham Trial Weekend
The bet365 sponsored Scottish Cheltenham Trials Weekend is the high point of Musselburgh’s jumps season. ITV are covering the first three races on Saturday’s card including bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase (2:15).
1:40 – Irish challenger Jackpot de Choisel won a weak handicap chase over C&D last month. However, that was the 5-year-old’s chase debut and he’s open to further improvement in the sphere. Glory And Honour won at Doncaster last time and the drying ground looks a positive. He’s had six more starts than Jackpot de Choisel but could also be capable of a bit more improvement.
2:15 – bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase (Class 2) – 3m 7 ½ f
I haven’t looked at the Edinburgh National in much detail yet. Magna Sam won this race 12 months ago, from 4lb lower, and has solid claims again despite an underwhelming seasonal return here 65 days ago.
Others of note include Lincolnshire National winner Landen Calling and Inis Oirr, 5th in that race and, a potential improver for the step up to 4m.
The consistent No Cruise Yet is surely better than he showed at Catterick.
Enrilo is struggling and might have gone at the game. But if Bryony Frost can get him into a good jumping rhythm, he’s not a totally lost cause and is the best handicapped horse in the race if returning to form.
2:50 – Another race that I haven’t looked at yet and won’t do so until final declarations are known. However, from a brief glance there’s three that interest me. Collingham won this race last year and is 2lb lower this time around. First Impression was runner-up at Doncaster last time and should go well once more. Paul Nicholls saddled the winner of this race in 2017 & 2021. He’s got two entries in last time out Doncaster winner Rare Middleton & Afadil. The former is probably capable of more improvement of the pair, but I wouldn’t rule out Afadil who will be suited by a return to 2m and drying ground.
Thursday Preview
Having gone on about last time out winners in yesterday’s column I opposed a C&D winner Bolsover Bill and went with a horse that fell last time out and didn’t stay to boot. Your humble pundit should hang his head in shame.
There's twelve last time out winners were declared for Thursday’s racing. I’m concentrating on three races that they run in.
Wincanton
3:45 – Take Your Time made it 2-2 over fences when winning over C&D 51 days ago. Both those successes came on heavy ground, but he did win on good to soft over hurdles so should find on today’s ground. Up 8lb for his latest win but the hat trick bid looks on. Quick Draw won at Ludlow (good) on his seasonal return but pulled up in a better race at Cheltenham 17 days later. First run for 96 days but goes fresh and in the mix if back to his Ludlow form.
Ffos Las
2:30 – Tune In A Box made it 2-5 over hurdles when winning at Wetherby (soft) 7 days ago. A 7lb penalty shouldn’t prevent the hat trick with a 7lb conditional jockey taking over in the saddle and negating the weight rise. Different ground to Wetherby but still a likely winner.
Chelmsford
8:00 – Inspiritus got off the mark at the fourth attempt when winning on handicap debut at Wolverhampton 27 days ago. He should be capable of better and a 4lb rise looks workable.
Thursday Selection:
None of my main fancies are much of a price. I’m hoping to get 6/4 about Tune In A Box but I doubt I will get it. That leaves a choice between Take Your Time and Inspiritus and I have opted for the C&D winner this time.
Wincanton
3:45 – Take Your Time – 2/1 or bigger.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John