Hi all,
Inside you’ll find my thoughts on an informative Trials Day at Cheltenham.
Cheltenham Trials Day Recap
Trials Day delivered solid action, but how many Festival winners did we spot? Personally, I’d say one—maybe—but no more. In fact, I still think last Sunday’s Windsor card holds more Festival potential. Here’s a recap of the five graded races.
East India Dock
East India Dock extended his perfect hurdles record with a polished performance in the Grade 2 JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle. He led from the front, and ran the finish out of French challenger Stencil.
Despite his small stature, East India Dock impressed with his slick jumping and professionalism. He’s laid down a strong marker for the Triumph Hurdle, where spring ground should suit this flat-bred juvenile even more. A very good little one indeed.
Takeaway: A classy performance and his fluency over hurdles make him a serious Triumph Hurdle contender, especially on spring ground.
L'Homme Presse
The Grade 2 Cotswold Chase saw L’Homme Presse work harder than expected to beat Stage Star.
Stage Star, stepping up beyond 2m 5f for the first time, got into a great rhythm with an uncontested lead. He set his own pace and jumped well throughout. However, L’Homme Presse, while not at his best, stayed on dourly to edge him out close to the finish.
Takeaway: It was a gutsy effort from L'Homme Presse, but connections of Galopin Des Champs won’t be losing any sleep. He’s in the Gold Cup mix but he looks to be competing for place money.
Constitution Hill
Constitution Hill added £71,188 to his haul with an effortless win in the Unibet International Hurdle. The 1/12 favourite turned the race into a canter, but there was a scare when he fluffed the last. On the slow motion replay, he was fortunate to stay on his feet. Jockey Nico de Boinville must take responsibility for the error. He slowed up coming to the last which meant the horse fumbled the hurdle.
Once Constitution Hill took it up four out, the result was never in doubt, leaving his rivals scrapping for place money. However, the absence of Lossiemouth turned this into more of a schooling session than a meaningful contest.
The bookies were at least sensible not to shorten his Champion Hurdle odds further.
Takeaway: While Constitution Hill remains the one to beat in the Champion Hurdle, he isn’t infallible. He’ll be tough to oppose, but the Champion Hurdle might be closer than many backers think.
Gowel Road
The Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle didn’t unfold as expected. I thought it would be between Crambo and Strong Leader, but both disappointed.
Crambo’s race was effectively over after a costly error at the 8th. Strong Leader, fresh from wind surgery, was never at the races and ran well below his best once again. I’m not totally convinced that Strong Leader was ridden to win, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see run much better in the Grade 1 at Aintree that he won last April.
That left Gowel Road, who had finished runner-up on all four previous starts here this season, to finally get his reward. His consistency deserved a decent pot, and he duly delivered.
However, the British staying hurdlers remain a modest group. Gowel Road has earned his spot in the Stayers’ Hurdle lineup for March, but he looks more than a place contender. On the positive side, his win adds further credit to Lucky Place, who beat him here last time while conceding 6lb.
Takeaway: Gowel Road deserved his day in the sun but he’s no more than place contender for the Stayers Hurdle back here in March.
Sixmilebridge
The concluding Grade 2 Ais Novices' Hurdle saw an upset as long-time leader Sixmilebridge (9/1) held off odds-on favourite Potters Charm, who was far from his usual self.
Potters Charm, a Grade 1 winner at Aintree and one of the leading British hopes for the Turners Novices’ Hurdle, failed to show the spark he displayed in his previous four runs over hurdles. On reflection, his connections might regret running him here rather than sticking to their original plan of heading straight to Cheltenham. He’s been on the go since September and likely left his best performance at Aintree.
Sixmilebridge, receiving 5lb from the favourite, proved a worthy winner. While his earlier novice hurdle wins at Leicester and Huntingdon were against lesser company, this performance showed he’s on an upward curve. He deserves to take his place in the Turners Novices Hurdle.
Despite his success, the Turners looks a tougher challenge. At 10/1 with Sky Bet, he’s no value, and Potters Charm being the same price is even less appealing given Saturday’s run.
Takeaway: Sixmilebridge impressed but has more to prove at Cheltenham. Potters Charm looks in need of a break to regain his best form.
Trials Day Takeaway:
A decent day of racing but only faint glimpses of Festival potential. One standout in East India Dock but plenty to debate in the weeks before the festival.
Docpickedme Delivers in Dramatic Great Yorkshire Chase
In last Wednesday’s preview of the Virgin Bet Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase, I flagged two key trends:
Horses carrying 10lb to 16lb below top weight or the top weight itself.
Runners with 2 to 12 prior runs at three miles.
Four runners met the criteria, and two finished in the first four, including the winner Docpickedme. Another, Forward Plan, was travelling well when he tragically fell four out and would probably have been in the shake up. It was a sad postscript to ITV’s coverage from Doncaster.
Here’s what I wrote about Docpickedme in Wednesday’s column:
“Split Charlie Uberalles and Forward Plan last time over C&D. While not guaranteed to replicate that form, his 25/1 price with Bet365 looks generous and he can hit the frame.”
In the race verdict I said the following:
“Forward Plan has a solid chance of going one better than last year, especially on softer ground. However, Docpickedme offers value at current odds”
Unfortunately, I was focused on other matters and didn’t take the 25/1 myself, but I hope some of you did!
While Docpickedme claimed the prize, Walking On Air was mounting a strong challenge when falling at the last. Personally, I feel Walking On Air might have won had he stayed up. However, winning jockey Charlie Maggs was confident his mount would have found more on the run-in.
The Changing Man inherited second after Walking On Air mishap at the last. He’s now finished runner-up on three valuable handicap chases. He lacks a gear change and is going to remain vulnerable off his handicap mark
We’ll never know if Walking On Air would have won but as they say, the fences are there to be jumped.
Good luck with your Monday bets.
John