Hi all,
Not surprisingly we lost Wetherby’s Wednesday card to waterlogging. I don’t live far away from the racecourse, and we’ve had two dry days out of the last 16. Indeed, we’ve just had one day where in the sun made an appearance in the last two weeks. The weather has been one shade of grey, it been cold, wet and thoroughly miserable. Looking outside it’s hard to believe that were just 26 days away from the start of the Cheltenham Festival.
Ninety per cent of midweek racing, outside the big summer festivals, exists to fund the bookmakers’ benevolent fund.
The likes of Hugh Taylor thrive in low-grade midweek racing, particularly on the all-weather. But they thrive because they specialise. That’s the key word: specialisation.
I prefer to focus on Class 3 and above contests. That’s my specialism if you like. Thankfully there’s a Class 3 handicap at Taunton this afternoon that I’ve looked at inside today’s main piece.
Finding the Improver: The Hardest Edge in Racing Betting
Every race is different. Every track is different. Every class is different. Every contest is a new puzzle and a new challenge.
But all races share one thing: they contain four types:
- Consistent horses,
- Inconsistent horses,
- Regressive horses,
- and the improver.
Every racehorse fits into one of those four categories.
The improvers are the ones you want to be with, but they can be the hardest to identify.
On Sunday at Navan, I felt I’d found one in the 2m6f handicap hurdle – Westandtogether at 25/1. On handicap debut, the mare looked capable of improving on what she’d shown so far and she duly did.
What surprised me most was her price. On Sunday morning she was one of the outsiders of an 11-runner field. On my tissue, she should have been much shorter.
And when your tissue is that far out of line with the bookmakers, it’s natural to doubt yourself. Especially when you’re on a poor run. That’s when the danger creeps in and you can default to the Johnny Dineen view that maybe they, the bookimakers, know something you don’t.
This time, I trusted my judgement. My gut told me I couldn’t watch a 25/1 shot win without being on it. As it turned out, Westandtogether was returned at 9/1 which was far more in line with my assessment.
Thursday Racing
Today’s action was moderate, but we’ve now lost Clonmel to waterlogging.
Taunton
3:25 – Class 3 Handicap Hurdle – 2m½f
Eight runners so a good race to look at. And you can place all eight into the above four categories.
Let’s go through them, starting with the top weight.
Brentford Hope – Consistent top-weight
Reliable on easy ground, drops in in class from last time when a 1¾ length third to The New Lion in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham. Remains vulnerable to anything progressive or better-treated in the field.
Aurigny Mill – Consistent track performer
Taunton form figures read 12123. Runner-up in this race last year, beaten 1¼ lengths, and 4lb lower today.
Welsh Charger – Solid going right-handed
Yet to race on heavy but 2 from 3 on soft. Strong right-handed record (5 from 11, 7 places). Handicapped to go close.
Spirits Bay – Consistent
Another consistent performer at the trip, but like some others in this group, vulnerable to better-treated rivals.
Celtic Art – Older improver, but ground a doubt
Posted a career-best RPR when winning here last time over 2m3f. Respected from an in-form yard, but heavy ground may not suit.
Jack Hyde – Consistent on good to soft but exposed
Runner-up at Cheltenham last time. Reliable, but looks exposed off his mark. Returns from wind surgery though. Best form on good to soft (3 from 4).
Into The Park – Inconsistent type
Has a chance on a going day but is inconsistent performer.
Constellation Walk – Possible improver
Is the possible improver in the line-up. Improved on each of his three hurdle starts. Back from a short break and open to further progress on handicap debut.
Verdict:
Aurigny Mill, Welsh Charger and Constellation Walk are the three that interest me most. Aurigny Mill thrives at Taunton and looks well treated. Welsh Charger is handicapped to go very close and is clearly at his best going right-handed. Constellation Walk is the potential improver – unexposed, and capable of taking another step forward on handicap debut.
It might give some readers heart failure to suggest backing three horses in an eight-runner race. Now I’ve written this before the bookies have priced up the race but if the prices allow, it could pay to side with all three and still come out in front.
Good luck with your Thursday bets.
John