Good morning all,
The start of the last Bank Holiday Weekend before Christmas (there's a frightening thought) sees plenty of racing across the country and although thunderstorms will be moving in later on today, it hopefully won't spoil our enjoyment of what promises to be an interesting day's racing.
As now tends to be the case on a Saturday, I had a root through the TV races yesterday and came up with a guide for the majority of today's action at Beverley, Newmarket and Goodwood. Here's hoping for a few winners.
Beverley
3.10 Beverley Bullet (5f) (Listed)
Final Venture (Alan Swinbank)
Improving 4-y-o faces his most difficult task to date but whereas most of these have had their day, he's the one going forward and may not have as much to find as the figures imply. Stall 9 not ideal but there's not much pace on and may get the run of this from the front. Has won at Pontefract uphill finish ought not be a problem.
Willytheconqueror (William Muir)
Also improving, this 3-y-o will probably make good use of his draw (stall 2) to sit handy behind the leader. Still seems to be going the right way and a stiff 5f will suit.
Goodwood
3.20 – 7f Handicap (Class 2)
Certificate (Roger Varian)
Will be favourite but silly not to point out what an excellent chance he has. Not much pace amongst low numbers, meaning he will get a good track position, and won with any amount in hand at Doncaster, travelling well and quickening up when asked. Only 6lb higher and if handling track, clearly the one to beat.
Northgate Lad (Brian Ellison)
Has refound some form on his last two starts at Newcastle and if he can translate that back onto turf would hold claims from a low draw. Will be ridden prominently, ground should suit and still looks reasonably handicapped (update, now a n/r).
3.55 March Stakes 1m6f (Listed)
Goldmember (David Simcock)
No shortage of pace on here (at least four of the nine tend to front-run/press pace) and that should suit Goldmember, taking a step down the grading ladder after being far from disgraced in the G3 Gordon Stakes here last time. Usually held up for late effort and not hard to see him involved.
Sweeping Up (Hughie Morrison)
Has run well both starts at Goodwood, capable in the grade and has kept form well this season. Should sit just behind pace and looks the danger.
4.30 Celebration Mile (1m) (G2)
Thikrayaat (Sir Michael Stoute)
With the weight allowances, the 3-y-o's look the pair to concentrate on, with Thikrayaat's course form just giving him the edge over Zonderland. Game winner over this C&D and previous second to Ribchester at Adcot now looking a very solid piece of form too.
Toormore has plenty on under the penalties but has good course form and may give this a good go from the front.
Newmarket
3.00 7f Handicap (Class 3)
Summer Chorus (Andrew Balding)
Needs to prove a seventh furlong suits as well as shorter, but needed every yard of 6f here last time and hopes are high in that regard. That was in better company thank this as well, and many of these aren't proven in the grade. Yard continues in good form too.
The Commendatore (David Barron)
Had no chance the way the race panned out here two starts back (one of two to race near rail, away from action) but back to form in first time hood on latest start when upped to 7f and is likely to give this a go from the front.
4.10 Newmarket – 6f Stakes (Listed)
Buying Trouble (David Evans)
The figures suggest this will be difficult for her but she's steadily improving and could get this run to suit her come-late style. Three efforts in Listed company have seen her placed every time, ground should suit and she represents a bit of e/w value.
For the main bet today I'll go for Goldmember in that 3.55 at Goodwood, who I think takes a bit of beating.
Good luck with all your bets today,
David.