Hi all,
Inside today’s main piece I’m looking ahead to the weekend’s big race action with a preview of the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle.
Looking Ahead to the Weekend
We have an exciting Saturday of racing ahead, featuring quality contests across several tracks.
Curragh: Pretty Polly Stakes (3:30)
Saturday's sole Group 1 contest, the Pretty Polly Stakes, promises top-tier action.
Newcastle: Northumberland Plate (3:35)
The highlight of Newcastle’s biggest racing day of the season, the Northumberland Plate, is Saturday’s big betting race. The card also includes the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes (2:04).
Newmarket: Criterion Stakes (2:40) and Fred Archer Stakes (2:05)
Newmarket offers pattern racing with the Group 3 Criterion Stakes and the Listed Fred Archer Stakes headlining a seven-race card on the July Course.
ITV Racing Coverage
ITV Racing will be covering the best of the action from Newcastle and Newmarket on Saturday afternoon, ensuring you won't miss a moment of the best of the racing.
Sunday: Irish Derby Day
The excitement continues across the Irish Sea on Sunday with Classic action in the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby, the highlight of the day. The undercard includes the Group 2 Railway Stakes (1:40) and four competitive Premier handicaps.
Newcastle: Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate Handicap
The Northumberland Plate, affectionately known as the “Pitmen's Derby,” was first run in 1833. The race earned its nickname due to its popularity among the coal miners (pitmen) of the North- East, who would attend the race in large numbers.
The Northumberland Plate is the highlight of the three-day Northumberland Plate Festival, which begins on Thursday. This historic race is more than just a sporting event; it has deep cultural roots and is a significant part of the region's industrial heritage.
Over the years, many notable horses have won the Northumberland Plate, showcasing the endurance and stamina required for this demanding race. One recent winner was the likable Sergeant Cecil, a staying star who sadly passed away last week. You can read more about his legacy here.
The Northumberland Plate isn’t just a race; it is a historic event that embodies the spirit and resilience of the people of the North East.
Trends:
In 2016, the race was moved from turf to an all-weather Tapeta surface. Since the change in surface there have been 8 winners from 156 runners.
All eight winners shared the following trait:
Will that trend continue to hold sway in 2024? I’m hoping I does.
Contenders:
Trainer Brian Ellison has set his sights on winning the Northumberland Plate after achieving victory in the Eider Chase in February. He has previously come close in this race and is determined to secure a win this time.
Ellison has three horses left in Saturday’s race: top-weight Tashkhan, Chilli, and November Handicap winner Onesmoothoperator. According to the ante-post betting, Tashkhan (16/1) and Onesmoothoperator (14/1) are his strongest contenders, and not surprisingly, I favour both.
While Tashkhan has yet to prove his effectiveness on the surface, he possesses a touch of class. Meanwhile, Onesmoothoperator’s three career wins have all come on the tapeta surface, including two at Newcastle.
The ante-post favourite is Pledgeofallegiance (8/1), who won the Ascot Stakes over half a mile further and must carry a 5lb penalty for his Royal Ascot success.
Michael Bell has a lively contender in Duke Of Oxford (12/1), as does Alan King with Spartan Army (16/1). Chester Cup winner Zoffee (12/1) will have his supporters despite disappointing last year when sent off at 9/1. However, Zoffee won the Plate consolation race in 2022, proving his aptitude on the surface. Connections opted to miss the Ascot Stakes to focus on this race. Four of Hugo Palmer’s runners in the race have placed, and he won it in 2020.
At bigger odds, Evaluation (25/1) is very interesting. Now with Lucinda Russell, the 6-year-old was sent off as the favourite (4/1) when finishing a slightly unlucky 3 ¼ length 4th of 18 to Zoffee in the Vase. He has an 11lb pull in the weights. We haven’t seen the 6-year-old since he bounced back to winning ways at Wolverhampton in April, but he won off a similar layoff last time, so he should be fit enough.
Northumberland Plate Verdict:
Cards firmly on the table, I haven’t had a bet an ante post bet in the Northumberland Plate, and I haven't analysed the race in any meaningful way yet. However, my early shortlist includes Tashkhan, Onesmoothoperator, Spartan Army, and Evaluation.
If you want my Northumberland Plate selections, you can get them here.
Wednesday Racing
Wednesday's racing action features Listed races on both sides of the Irish Sea, promising a day of high-quality competition.
Ireland: Listed Oaks Trial at Naas (7:30)
In Ireland, all eyes will be on Naas for the Listed Oaks Trial. This race often serves as a stepping stone for fillies aiming for the prestigious Irish Oaks.
Carlisle: Listed Eternal Stakes (3:35)
Over at Carlisle, the Listed Eternal Stakes is the highlight of a seven-race card.
In addition to the Eternal Stakes, Carlisle's most valuable raceday of the year includes two other notable races: The Cumberland Plate (3:05) and the Carlisle Bell (4:40): One of the oldest races in the UK, the Carlisle Bell has a rich history dating back to 1599.
We’re not talking Royal Ascot, but Wednesday’s racing promises some exciting and competitive action.
Key Races at Carlisle
3:05 – Cumberland Plate (Handicap) – 1m 3f
Sea Of Thunder:
Recent Form: Finished a close ¾-length second to Spaceport at Leicester last time.
Positives: The front pair were clear of the rest, suggesting a strong performance. Only a 2lb rise in the weights, indicating the handicapper hasn't been overly harsh.
Concerns: Needs to prove his effectiveness on good to firm ground.
Asgard's Captain:
Recent Form: Maintained good form from all-weather to turf, finishing 3¼ lengths third to Relentless Voyager at Epsom.
Positives: Drops in class here, which could enhance his chances.
Concerns: Needs to continue his good form on turf.
Gibside:
Recent Form: Won well at Catterick two starts back and followed up with a solid third at York 11 days ago.
Positives: Should benefit from a return to quicker ground. Remains on a competitive mark, and his stable has a good record in this race.
Concerns: Needs a good pace to chase and might struggle if the race becomes tactical.
4:40 – Carlisle Bell (Handicap) – 1m
Billyb:
Recent Form: Improved to win a similar handicap at Beverley.
Positives: Only a 4lb rise in the weights and has a favourable low draw. Prefers quick ground, which he should get.
Concerns: Needs to continue his improvement to win again.
On A Session:
Recent Form: Finished a head second at Chester 12 days ago.
Positives: Ground versatile and now 4lb below his last winning mark.
Concerns: Drawn in stall 10, which is not ideal.
Yaaser:
Recent Form: Showed signs of returning to form with a 4-length third at York 12 days ago.
Positives: Interesting booking of William Buick. Could perform well if overcoming a wide draw in stall 15.
Concerns: Needs to handle the wide draw effectively.
Million Thanks:
Recent Form: Achieved a first success since joining Rebecca Menzies with a win at Pontefract last time.
Positives: Won convincingly and has been hit with an 8lb rise but remains a strong contender.
Concerns: The weight rise could be challenging, but could overcome it.
Summary
The Cumberland Plate and Carlisle Bell are set to provide exciting and competitive racing.
Sea Of Thunder and Asgard's Captain are strong contenders in the Cumberland Plate, with Gibside also posing a significant threat if the race isn't too tactical.
In the Carlisle Bell, Billyb looks well-placed to go close again, while On A Session, Yaaser, and Million Thanks all have strong chances despite varying concerns about their draws and weight rises.
These previews should help you get a better understanding of the key runners and their prospects for Wednesday's feature races at Carlisle.
Good luck with your Wednesday’s bets.
John