Hi all,
A short main piece today with me taking an in-depth preview of the mile handicap at Ascot.
We might have lost Salisbury to waterlogging on Thursday but It’s going to be dry, sunny and pleasantly warm on Friday and Saturday. The rain is leaving us for a couple of days at least. That’s good news for Haydock’s Betfair Sprint Cup Day. That said I was hoping for easy ground for the big Group 1 sprint. If the forecast is right, it shouldn’t be soft ground and could be close to good.
I noticed Paul Kealy has put up a few of the same horses I’d marked down in his Racing Post Weekender column. Slightly frustrating when that happens, but it is what it is. As they say, great minds think alike – or at least that’s what I’m telling myself!
Ascot – Friday Preview
It’s the first of two days at Ascot, with the feature on Friday’s card is a fiercely competitive mile contest with 18 runners. It’s a much bigger field than the race usually attracts. Last year just nine lined-up and since 2015 just one renewal has attracted a double-digit field.
4:40 – Iron Stand Membership Handicap (Class 2) – 1m
There should be a good gallop, with early pace on both sides of the draw so hopefully a no excuses race.
Three-year-old’s are 4 winners from 16 runners 25% +7, 7 places and there are four from that age group in this year’s line-up. Of the four, I like High Degree and Accentuate most.
High Degree
Heads the early market. He looked good when landing a Ffos Las maiden two starts back before finishing fifth of 18 on handicap debut at Goodwood (1m2f). That was a fair effort from a wide draw, and the drop back to a strongly run mile could be ideal.
Accentuate
Didn’t make the anticipated improvement when only of 5th of 6 here 56 days ago. On the plus side he probably remains capable of a bigger performance. Yet to race on ground worse than good but the dam won on heavy. Yard is in much better form now – 9 winners from 32 runners in the past 14 days.
Theoryofeverything
Landed this race last year off 5lb lower and won again on soft ground at Ayr in July. He’s had excuses on quicker going since, but rain has come at the right time. The worry is his low draw in stall 1. Stablemate Bopedro is on a losing run of 26 but hasn’t been running too badly this season. He’s run well here in the past and if he gets a good tow into the race won’t be far away.
Hi Royal
Isn’t the horse who finished runner-up in the 2,000 Guineas two years ago but hinted at a revival when second on handicap debut in the Thirsk Hunt Cup in May and again when third back at Thirsk last time. A return to peak form would make him dangerous off this mark.
Witch Hunter
Loves the straight course here. He captured the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot in 2023 and ran a huge race in last year’s Balmoral Handicap off a lofty mark of 109. He wasn’t at his best at Chester on Sunday but back here from 99, could bounce back.
Grey’s Monument
Shoulders top weight but he won a 7f handicap here off the same mark last September. Rain softened ground suits and stays a mile. He returns from a similar break as when winning 12 months ago so is another to consider.
Theoryofeverything – £5 win – 9/1
Running Total – £80
I’ll be having my first bets of the week today. If you’d like to follow my selections – both today and for the rest of the month – you can get them here.
I'm not sure if I will have time to do a Saturday column this week. If not I'll be back on Monday to look back at the weekend's action.
Good luck with your Friday bets.
John
John, have you dis-regarded the 30 day staking plan already?