Evening all,
Inside today’s main piece I have three from last week’s racing for the tracker. Plus, I look back at Punchestown’s Sunday card and have a Cheltenham ante post fancy from that meeting.
The cold weather that I mentioned on Saturday is now here. Writing this on Monday morning I can see the first snow of the winter falling from my window.
Jump racing over the next few days is going to be dependent on how harsh the overnight frosts are. Fingers crossed the cold the frost is gone for the weekend.
Punchestown Sunday
I think we saw at least one maybe more Cheltenham Festival winner’s at Punchestown on Sunday. The going at Punchestown was described as heavy and times wise that was spot on.
Impaire Et Passe travel and jumped well to win the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle. Given the heavy ground wouldn’t have suited. This success marked him down a Grade 1 winner in waiting.
Willie Mullins has won the Moscow Flyer with the likes of Vautour & Douvan in the past. And both those two high class hurdlers went onto win the Supreme at Cheltenham. Cheltenham is now on the cards for the 5-year-old. But will it be the Supreme or the Ballymore? Mullins has the hot favourite for the Supreme in Facile Vega so the Ballymore would be a tempting alternative.
Impervious: What A Mare
Impervious made it 3-3 over fences when winning what had looked a competitive Grade 3 Madigan Group Novice Chase. Giving weight away to the geldings just underlined how impressive her victory was. She had to much speed for Journey With Me at the business end of Sunday’s 2m 3 ½ f contest. Given he’s thought to be Grade 1 standard the form looks very strong.
Hat firmly tipped at Tom Segal (Pricewise) he was confident Impervious could beat the boys even giving weight away. She’s close to favouritism for the Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase at Cheltenham on the back of this success. However, trainer Colm Murphy held out the tantalising possibility that’s she could take on the geldings at Cheltenham. And she’s now as short as 6/1 for the Turners Novices Chase. It could turn out getting the 7lb mares allowance makes the Turners an easier assignment than the Mares Chase. Whichever Cheltenham race connections decide on she wins.
Runner-up Journey With Me is going the right way over fences and hopefully trainer Henry De Bromhead will up him in trip to 3m and aim the 7-year-old at the Brown Advisory Novices Chase at Cheltenham. I've had a little nibble on him at 20/1 with Coral for that race just in case he does.
Tracker Tuesday
It hard to believe its Tuesday again. It only seems like yesterday that I was looking at last week’s tracker horses.
When using trackers, I find that that horses need to come out as quickly as they are put in. To help the process along each month I review which need to be let go. Normally I remove a horse after a win. However, occasionally I keep them in if I feel that they haven’t reached their handicap ceiling.
For example: I had Annsam in my tracker for going right handed, over 3m. He got his optimum conditions when winning at Kempton on Saturday. Have I removed him? Not yet. I’m waiting to see how the handicapper reacts to Saturday’s success. If he gets a 7lb rise I’m happy to keep him in the tracker. If it’s 8lb or more and he will come out. It’s as simple as that.
The first of this week’s trackers horses comes from Saturday’s Warwick card and unusually for me it won its race.
Haddex Des Obeaux – Gary Moore
When it comes to 2m chasers I love a bold jumping front runner and Haddex Des Obeaux is one of The 6-year-old had impressed when winning from the front at Doncaster last month. And he was even more impressive in winning Saturdays’ Edward Courage Cup Handicap Chase at Warwick. His high cruising speed was once more in evidence and his accurate jumping soon had his three rivals in trouble.
In some way’s he’s very similar to stablemate Editeur Du Gite and there’s no reason why he can’t emulate that one’s exploits. He’s only six and Saturday was just his fourth start over fences. Saturday’s win came off mark of 136 and he’ll be close to 150 after this success. However, I don’t think he’ll have reached his handicap ceiling after reassessment.
This week’s other two eyecatchers both ran at Kempton.
I almost went for another winner in Deere Mark, trained by Sam Thomas, who impressed me when winning the 2m handicap hurdle that concluded Saturday’s Kempton card. A strong traveller. He’s a progressive young handicap hurdler who wouldn’t be out of a place in race like the Betfair Hurdle.
Kitty’s Light – Christian Williams
Has yet to fire so far this season but there was a sign that he might be about to hit form. Ok, he was only a 20 length 3rd of 7 behind all the way winner Annsam in the 3m handicap chase but he hot form last Spring and something similar looks on the cards. He finished a 2 ¾ length runner-up to stablemate Cap Du Nord in the valuable Coral Trophy Handicap Chase over C&D last February. Before finishing runner-up in the Scottish Grand National & third in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown
Granted 3m around Kempton is on the short side for him but I suspect he’ll be back here for next month’s Coral Trophy before heading to Ayr and Sandown again. He’s dropped down the handicap once more and he can win a staying handicap chase when the ground isn’t as testing as it was on Saturday. His top six RPR’s have come on good to soft or good going.
Up For Parol – Jamie Snowden
Up For Parol ran a cracker to finish third on his belated seasonal return in the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle. A good stamina test at 2m 4f/2m5f suits him well. Might stay further, and he got that Saturday’s race. He was still bang there coming to the last and it was just a lack of race sharpness that told at the end of the race. I would be slightly concerned that he had a hard race here. However, given a suitable break can remain competitive in these high end handicaps in the coming months.
Tuesday Racing
If Chepstow passes its early morning precautionary inspection here are few thoughts on the card.
Chepstow
2:30 – Bear Ghylls, a smart novice hurdler back in 2020-21, returned from a 20 month absence with an encouraging 10 ½ length 3rd of 7 in the Colin Parker Intermediate Chase at Carlisle. However, he was disappointing at Uttoxeter three weeks later. Likely bounced last time and remains capable of more improvement over fences.
Prevaricate, formerly with Gordon Elliott, makes his stable/chase debut for Venetia Williams. A winner of a Leopardstown maiden hurdle last March. The 7-year-old is a winning pointer so should well over the larger obstacles.
Interne De Sivola didn’t make any impact in better races on first two starts over fences and fell on landing at the first at Wincanton 10-days ago. He should be capable of better over fences if his confidence hasn’t been affected.
3:00 – The more testing the ground the better for Emmpressive Lady. The mare is very effective in the mud but even on testing ground 2m 4f looks on the short side for her these days. We haven’t seen her since she pulled up at Hereford 11 months ago and she hasn’t any great record fresh. So despite liking her at first glance I can pass her over here.
Alnadam was well held on his seasonal reappearance over fences at Exeter last month. A useful handicap chaser on his day. The 10-year-old hasn’t been seen over hurdles since winning at Hereford in March 2020. He goes well in the mud and has a tempting hurdles mark if he can reproduce his best chase form.
Tuesday Selection:
Its Chepstow or bust for today’s selection. It’s a no excuses day over fences for Bear Ghylls and Alnadam looks a fair price on his return to hurdling. However. on this occasion the shorter priced one gets the nod. That said I wouldn't be rushing out to back him at less than evens.
Chepstow
2:30 – Bear Ghylls – 13/8 @ Bet365.
Good luck with your Tuesday bets.
John