Morning all,
After some glorious weather last week. We’re moving towards a more typical unsettled autumn weather pattern. Plenty of rain is forecast this week so we can expect the going to ease around the racecourses. In fact, the rain was so bad we lost yesterday’s Hamilton’s card to waterlogging.
There were plenty of classic clues on offer at Newmarket on Saturday. However, there was also one at the Curragh. Inside you can read my thoughts on Luxembourg’s win of the Blandford Stakes. Plus, I have three for the tracker and a selection from Ayr.
Only two weeks ago some were speculating that the Ballydoyle era was over. Aidan O’Brien was having a torrid time. With just 1 winner from 40 odd runners. Well over the weekend we saw why you can never write them off.
On Saturday O’Brien produced Tenerbrism to overcome a long absence to win the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes. In less than 10 minutes he also saddled Luxembourg to win the Group 2 Beresford Stakes at the Curragh.
With all the top juvenile action at Newmarket. You might have missed Luxembourg’s win on Saturday at the Curragh. Not surprisingly he was made the 8/1 favourite for next year’s Derby on the back of this success. However, the 14/1 available with Paddy Power for next year’s 2,000 Guineas makes more appeal to me at this stage.
More classic clues
Luxembourg, a son of Camelot, had a looked a useful prospect when winning at Killarney on his racecourse debut. He built on that performance when beating four rivals in the Beresford Stakes. Now, in truth he probably didn’t beat much on Saturday. However, you couldn’t fail but to be impressed visually by his success. Dropped to the rear he didn’t look ideally placed coming into the straight. However, his jockey was clearly confident in the colt’s ability. Switching to the outside Luxembourg quickened up smartly approaching the final furlong to come from last to first to win by 4 ½ lengths.
It was a mighty impressive success and stamped the colt has high class. Granted he hung towards the rail in the closing stages and his head carriage looked a bit awkward but I would put that down to inexperience at this stage of his career. The Vertem Futurity at Doncaster would seem a natural end of season target for a colt who is bred to appreciate 1m 2f as a 3-year-old. O’Brien won the Beresford last season with High Definition. The ‘lads’ will be hoping that history doesn’t repeat itself.
Three for the tracker
The first jumper to enter this tracker this season. Plus, a couple from last week’s Cambridgeshire Meeting.
Farclas – Gordon Elliott
Was having his first start since finishing 5th in the Grand National and in the process of running a big race when unseating his rider three out in the Kerry National at Listowel last Wednesday. Now 3-9 over fences. His best performance over the large obstacles came when a 3 lengths 2nd of 21 to The Shunter in the Paddy Power Plate at this year’s Cheltenham Festival. There is a decent handicap chase in him this season when he gets decent ground to race on.
Noisy Night – Roger Charlton
Back on the grass for the first time since his racecourse debut. The colt was bidding for the four timer, after a hat trick of wins at Kempton in the one mile nursery at Newmarket on Thursday. He wasn’t ideally placed in a modestly run race and didn’t handle the dip at all. Only a 3 ¼ length 4th of 7 but shaped like he remains in good form and can do better back at flatter track.
Dr T J Eckleburg – David O’Meara
The 3-year-old was returning from an 83-day layoff when finishing a 2 ¼ length 3rd of 7 in the 1m 2f handicap that concluded Thursday’s Newmarket card. Should be sharper for this run and looks capable of adding a second career success in the coming weeks. His sole career win came on good to firm ground and he did disappoint on his one start on going worse than good to soft.
Tuesday racing
The most interesting thing about today’s racing is Osin Murphy and William Buick go head-to-head in five races at Wolverhampton this evening. Buick is going to need a big evening at the all-weather track as Murphy has a ride in all seven races.
Cork has the best quality card. The feature race is the Listed Navigation Stakes (4:05) and there are handful of big field handicap. However, I’m off to Ayr for a look at a couple of races.
Ayr
1:35 – Blind Beggar finished a respectable 2½ lengths 4th of 12 at York’s Ebor Meeting. That was over 5f and he’s a better horse over 6f. He drops a couple of notches in class here and will be a popular choice.
At bigger odds it may pay to have Pivoting onside. The ground has eased to soft at Ayr and the 3-year-old’s sole career win came on soft ground at Pontefract last autumn. Far and away his best performance this season came at Chester on good to soft in the spring. He’s returned from a 3-month absence with a couple of low-key efforts, albeit the last one came on good to firm at Doncaster. He seems to me to be slowly coming back to fitness and is fresher than most.
2:45 – Aquamas looks a modest maiden but there was a bit of an encouragement from his first start over 7f at Musselburgh last time. Although he finished only a 5-length 4th of 11 that day. He didn’t get the best of passages in the final 2f’s and looks worth another try at the trip. His best form has come with some juice in the ground.
Tuesday selection:
Yesterday’s selection was a non-runner but hopefully today's will get a run.
Ayr
1:35 – Pivoting – 14/1 @ Sky Bet & William Hill (both paying 4 places).
Good luck with your Tuesday bets.
John
John Burke is the tipster behind the long standing Victor Value service you can join him here – https://victorvalue.uk