Thursday’s Newbury Selection

Hi all,

Inside today’s main piece, I’m continuing my look ahead to the weekend’s racing. But first, let’s explore some Royal Ascot trends and stats.

Royal Ascot Trends and Stats.

On the run-up to Royal Ascot, I’m going to share with you some Royal Ascot trends and stats.

Today I’m focusing on the trainers at Royal Ascot since 2018.

Royal Ascot Trainers

Aidan O’Brien tops the leaderboard in terms of winners but it’s hard to make a profit from his runners. The same sentiment applies to the Charlie Appleby runners.  That leaves John & Thady Gosden, Roger Varian and Andrew Balding.

John & Thady Gosden

It’s not been the best of seasons for the Gosden yard. Will they bounce back at Royal Ascot?

Here’s the yards record at the meeting since 2018.

You can’t back the yards runners blind, but the profitable angle is to focus on their runners in Group 1 & 2 races.

By comparison the yard is 9 winners from 98 bets 3% -48, 22 places with its runners in other races at the meeting.

If history is any guide, we can expect the yard to have winners. However, I would be concerned whether the quality is there this year. They will be relying on Inspiral, Emily Upjohn and Gregory to deliver.

There’s also no Frankie Dettori this year and new stable jockey Kieren Shoemark is finding winners hard to come by.

It’s a long time since the Gosden yard failed to have a winner at Royal Ascot although they only had one in 2022.

Roger Varian

Roger Varian has saddled ten winners at Royal Ascot since 2018.

However, if you had backed all his runners, you would have been out of pocket.  One way to profit from the trainers runners could be to focus on his older horses returned 16/1 & under.

Andrew Balding

Andrew Balding has had plenty of runners at the meeting and once again followers of the yard haven’t made a profit. However, you can turn that loss into a profit by adding a couple of filters.

The first of them is to focus on his runners 16/1 & under (those returned 18/1 & bigger are – 0 winners from 74 bets, 5 places). The second filter is days since last run.

Finally, an honourable mention for Kevin Ryan. He’s had four winners at Royal Ascot and if you had backed all his 39 runners you would have made £34 to a £1 level stake. Most of that profit came from Triple Time winning the Queen Anne Stakes at 33/1.

All four of Ryan’s winners were aged four or five.

Looking Ahead to the Weekend – Part 2

I mentioned in yesterday’s column some horses that I was interested in for this weekend’s races. Well, I have a couple more for you today that could be worth keeping onside for their respective races.

Sandown

2:05 – Dual Identity is a real Sandown specialist. He bounced back to winning ways when winning the Whitsun Cup over C&D 23 days ago. That success means Dual Identity’s Sandown form figures are now 51211. He’s now 4lb higher and races off a career high mark but maybe he’ll be able to defy his new mark at his favourite venue.

York

1:50 – The Queen Mother's Cup Handicap for Female Amateur Jockeys isn't a race I would normally look at. However, I’m tempted by top weight Andaleep. The 8-year-old won a handicap here (1m 2 ½ f) last July, from 4lb lower and added a couple more wins on the all-weather at Southwell earlier in the year. He was slowly away and had no chance after when an 8 ¼ length 9^th of 16 here last month. Provided he gets off on level terms with his rivals I can see him going well up in trip, with leading amateur rider Brodie Hampson in the saddle. In the same race I will be watching if last year’s winning rider Jody Townend comes over from Ireland to ride in the race. If she does take the hint.

Although this weekend’s racing is even more subdued than last week’s offering. You won’t hear any complaints from me as there are plenty of pre- Royal Ascot betting opportunities.

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Thursday Racing:

Thursday’s most valuable race is the Group 3 BoyleSports Ballycorus Stakes at Leopardstown (5:55). There’s also a promising Newbury card awaiting punters on Thursday afternoon.

Newbury

3:25 – Heartwarmer improved for the step up to a mile on handicap debut when a 1 ¼ length 3^rd of 13 at Newmarket last month. Ther should be more to come from the filly who looks a strong contender.

4:30 – Hickory and Be Frank look sure to be popular after their last time out efforts. Zouzanna is better than she showed on seasonal return at Ascot and Osin Murphy back in the saddle. Course and Distance winner Pearle d'Or is handicapped to win a race like this but will need a good gallop to chase and might prefer an easier surface. Under The Twilight won a Class 4 handicap (6f) at Windsor on her return to before finding the step up to Class 2 company too much when a 4 ¾ length 5^th of 11 to Lethal Levi here (6f) 26 days ago. This is slightly easier than last time and the mare could be suited by a return to 7f.

5:05 – Treacherous has put in a couple of respectable efforts since returning from a five-month layoff. The return to 6f is a plus and Osin Murphy who rode the 10-year-old om his seasonal return at Windsor is back in the saddle.

Thursday Selection

If all the cards fall right, I can see Treacherous returning to winning ways at Newbury. However, Thursday’s Newbury selection is Heartwarmer.

Newbury

3:25 – Heartwarmer – 4/1.

Good luck with your Thursday bets!

John